On the downside… and with the warning lights on, after a year of momentum, the heavy-duty sector began 2025 weathering economic setbacks and falling demand . In response, the National Association of Bus, Truck and Tractor-Trailer Producers (ANPACT) cut its annual wholesale sales projection , as it faced a first half of the year that forced it to recalculate its route.
The new wholesale sales estimate projects a closing price of 35,935 units , compared to the 45,036 originally forecast, representing a 20.2% reduction in its own expectations.
The 35,935 projected wholesale units were divided into 30,971 for cargo and 4,964 for passengers .
In terms of cargo, fifth-wheel tractors dominate the estimate with more than 18,000 units.
The new forecast, announced by Rogelio Arzate , executive president of ANPACT, represents a change in the association’s usual trend, which in previous years tended to adjust its figures upwards .
Now, after a semester with a 47.7% drop in wholesale sales , the agency decided to lower its expectations for the end of the year.
“We’re in a year of readjustment, with a very sharp contraction. That’s why we’re updating our figures responsibly,” Arzate said.
The figure represents a 45.9% drop compared to 2024 , a record year in which 66,455 units were sold wholesale , setting a high bar for the industry.
With this adjustment, the estimated volume for 2025 is at levels similar to those between 2011 and 2014 , when annual sales ranged between 32,000 and 39,000 units , he explained.
“It’s not the worst drop compared to 2009 or 2020, but we are returning to levels from more than a decade ago,” he added.
In addition to this forecast, Arzate also warned about the impact that imported used heavy vehicles will have on the recovery of the domestic market.
Although cumulative figures show a 24.8% decrease in volume , the introduction of these types of units continues to represent a brake on fleet renewal.
“For every 100 new units sold, 59 used ones are imported. Although the volume has decreased, this figure remains the highest in recent years,” he explained.
The agency is working with federal government authorities and business organizations to minimize the influx of used vehicles and advance a formal scrappage scheme , as part of a strategy to strengthen the domestic market, Arzate said.
Fewer used vehicle imports , combined with progress in fleet renewal, could open up better conditions for the second half of the year, he said.
Although the environment remains challenging, ANPACT is confident that the second half of the year will stabilize the decline and advance the necessary steps to strengthen the domestic market.
The revised outlook and the call to curb the influx of used vehicles together seek to pave the way for a more orderly and sustainable recovery in the coming years.
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