The maritime market between Asia, Mexico, and South America experienced a relative pause in the price increases that characterized the first quarter of the year during April. However, behind this apparent stability, new capacity pressures were already beginning to emerge, which now anticipate a new upward cycle for the start of the peak season.
The EAX Index , developed by the Chinese company Eternity Group Mexico , closed April at $2,761 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) for the Asia > Mexico + West Coast of South America (WCSA) route, a slight decrease of 1.71% compared to March. However, this correction was far from representing a structural weakening of the market.
During the fourth month of the year, rates traded within a relatively narrow range of $2,500 to $2,900 per FEU, reflecting a significant reduction in volatility and greater stability in both available capacity and volumes handled. This behavior contrasted with the sharp fluctuations seen in previous weeks , when geopolitical tensions and operational adjustments by shipping lines drove abrupt increases on various transpacific and Latin American routes.
But the equilibrium was short-lived. Toward the last week of April, shipping companies began implementing strategic capacity cuts ahead of the Labor Day holiday in China, celebrated from May 1 to 5. The reduction in available space led to a buildup of cargo prior to the temporary shutdown of operations, a phenomenon that subsequently triggered additional pressure on demand once the holiday period ended.
The result was immediate. In the first days of May, the market resumed an upward trend, bringing forward the start of the peak season for maritime trade. Shipping lines began implementing General Rate Increases (GRIs) practically every week, with adjustments ranging from $500 to $1,000 per FEU, in an attempt to capitalize on capacity constraints and bolster rate levels.
However, the report itself warns that the sustainability of these increases will depend on the actual capacity of demand to absorb them in the short term, especially in an environment where doubts persist about the pace of global consumption and the evolution of supply chains.
The analysis also focuses on the operational discipline that shippers must maintain in the coming weeks. Key recommendations include avoiding any logistical speculation when dealing with critical or high-value cargo, and reserving space at least three to four weeks in advance to reduce financial and operational risks.
Added to this is the need to maintain absolute precision in the definition of the Cargo Ready Date (CRD) , because any modification to the committed date significantly increases the probability of losing spaces previously allocated by the shipping companies, particularly in a restricted capacity environment.
Meanwhile, global capacity continued to expand. Alphaliner data cited in the report shows that 88,744 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of new capacity entered the global shipping market during April. The largest addition came from CMA CGM , which added 29,254 TEUs during the month, reinforcing the fleet growth trend despite the current operational adjustments implemented on various routes.
The dynamics observed on the West Coast of South America were also replicated in the Asia-East Coast of South America (ECSA) corridor , albeit with higher fares. The EAX Index for this route closed April at $3,093 per FEU, a marginal decrease of 1.65% compared to the previous month.
During April, the ECSA market found a solid floor near $3,000 per FEU , supported by weekly capacity exceeding 60,000 TEUs. However, that support level shifted dramatically at the beginning of May, when rates climbed aggressively to over $3,800 per FEU.
The report attributes this behavior to the success of capacity-constraining strategies implemented by shipping companies, thus consolidating a regional upward trend at the start of the second quarter. This movement also confirms that, despite the entry of new fleets into the global market , shipping lines continue to use capacity management as their primary tool for maintaining rates on the most popular routes.
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