The maritime freight market between Asia, Mexico and South America went through one of its most volatile periods in June , with abrupt movements in rates, imbalances in space availability and new pressures on the reliability of transit times.
The EAX index, compiled by Eternity Group Mexico , closed May at $3,488 per FEU (40-foot container) on the route from Asia to the West Coast of South America (WCSA) and Mexico . However, during the first weeks of June, spot rates accelerated their upward trajectory, reaching a peak of $6,500 per FEU.
The surge was primarily driven by the severe supply contraction that began in May, when the corridor experienced a capacity deficit of up to 24,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units). The lack of available space strengthened the shipping lines’ position and quickly put upward pressure on transportation costs.
Market behavior changed during the second half of the month. Accumulated congestion at ports of origin and transshipment terminals led to a significant injection of space, shifting the balance from a deficit to a surplus of 42,000 TEUs.
The recovery of capacity led to a sharp correction in rates, which fell to around $5,000 per FEU. Thus, in a matter of weeks, the market went from facing a severe shortage of space to absorbing a greater volume of capacity , demonstrating the sensitivity of rates to any change in weekly supply.
This reshuffling coincided with the addition of new container ships to the global market. During June, vessels with a combined capacity of 183,089 TEUs were delivered , expanding global container space availability and potentially helping to moderate tariff pressures in the coming months.
CMA CGM led the capacity additions during the period, incorporating three vessels with a combined capacity of 45,460 TEU. Meanwhile, OOCL received the single largest vessel of the month, a mega-container ship with space for more than 24,000 TEU.
Following this fleet expansion, Eternity Group Mexico anticipates that July will mark a period of stabilization for freight rates , with prices nearing four thousand dollars per FEU on the route to Mexico and the West Coast of South America. This scenario, however, depends on supply remaining above 150,000 TEUs per week.
A reduction in costs would create a more favorable environment for importers, but it wouldn’t necessarily solve the corridor’s operational problems. The ongoing adjustments to shipping capacity , coupled with potential weather-related disruptions, will continue to strain schedule regularity and could cause significant delays in the arrival of goods.
Given this scenario, logistical planning becomes more important than seeking marginal reductions in rates. For critical shipments destined for production lines or peak seasons, speculating on further cost decreases can increase the risk of not finding space or failing to meet supply schedules.
The EAX report recommends scheduling shipments three to four weeks in advance to ensure capacity and reduce exposure to sudden market changes. It also suggests strengthening coordination among suppliers, buyers, logistics operators, and other participants in the supply chain.
One of the key elements will be the accuracy of the date the cargo is ready for loading, known as the Cargo Ready Date (CRD) . A last-minute change in the departure conditions can lead to the loss of the allocated space, a practice known as rollover , and the cargo being moved to a later shipment.
While the route to Mexico and the West Coast of South America began to show signs of correction, the Asia-East South America (ECSA) corridor maintained the opposite trajectory. The monthly value of the EAX index in this region reached $7,229 per FEU, an increase of 71.34% compared to the previous month.
During the last two months, fares in this corridor ranged between four thousand and eight thousand dollars per FEU , a range that confirms the East Coast of South America as the most sensitive and volatile route of those analyzed by the index.
The constant adjustments made by shipping companies to their service configurations have deepened the instability. In addition to increasing freight costs, the changes have generated operational disruptions and reduced reliability in transit times from Asia, forcing importers to operate with greater lead times.
June’s performance showed that expanding the global fleet does not automatically translate into stable capacity for every shipping route. Vessel distribution , port congestion, service adjustments, and weather conditions will continue to determine both freight rates and the punctuality of supply chains.
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