Baja California has established itself as one of the main logistics hubs for North American trade. In this context, Mexicali faces a period of adjustments and expectations marked by three factors: the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , the regulatory challenges of the Manufacturing, Maquiladora and Export Services Industry Program (IMMEX) , and the evolution of the industrial space market in the region.
For Carlos Ceballos, president of SDL Group and Open Warehouse , 2026 is shaping up to be a year of transition for border logistics . “It’s been a roller coaster,” he stated in an interview with T21, describing the current regional logistics environment, affected by tariff changes, political uncertainty, and adjustments in supply chains.
However, he also identified opportunities if the trilateral trade agreement comes to fruition in its next review, scheduled for July of this year, and under new rules that provide certainty to the export industry.
IMMEX under pressure
The export manufacturing industry, operating under the IMMEX program, continues to be one of Baja California’s main economic and logistical drivers. This program allows for the temporary import of raw materials for processing and subsequent re-export, integrating the region into global supply chains.
However, the sector faces administrative hurdles. Ceballos, who was a panelist at the first edition of ETYL Cali-Baja, organized by T21 , and whose second edition will take place on May 14 , pointed out that procedures that could previously be resolved in days—such as opening warehouses or expanding tax addresses—can now take between six and eight months. In the case of new IMMEX operations, the process can even extend to two years, when it previously took a couple of months.
This situation has had direct effects on the logistics and industrial ecosystem: companies renting buildings without being able to operate immediately, developers with available spaces, and suppliers delaying their installation in the region, Ceballos indicated, adding that representatives of the sector continue to promote dialogue with the authorities, such as the Ministry of Economy (SE) , to expedite the processes.
Supply chains, transportation and talent: key challenges
Supply chains face significant operational challenges. One of them is the shortage of freight transport operators .
According to the National Chamber of Freight Transportation (Canacar) , Mexico has a shortage of more than 90,000 truck drivers , a situation that could worsen in the coming years, since if the trend continues, by 2028 the figure could exceed 110,000 drivers.
To reduce the shortage of operators, Ceballos explained that in Mexicali the transportation industry is promoting training programs together with public educational institutions and the Canacar in Mexicali to increase the availability of professional operators.
“And we need to train female operators. I think there’s a great opportunity there to reduce the deficit in the sector, but we have to hurry, we have to work harder with the schools. Here in Mexicali, Canacar has a very good initiative with the academy, training tractor-trailer operators,” pointed out the member of the Board of Directors of the National Council of the Maquiladora and Export Manufacturing Industry (Index) Mexicali .
This initiative seeks to strengthen regional logistics capacity at a time when land mobility remains the main channel for cross-border and national trade.
According to the National Association of Bus, Truck and Tractor-Trailer Manufacturers (ANPACT) , more than 80% of the goods that move in Mexico travel by road.
Ceballos also identified a strategic opportunity in the use of rail . Although trucking dominates current logistics due to its flexibility, rail could regain prominence in certain freight flows, especially on long routes from the eastern United States to the Tijuana-Mexicali border.
“For general merchandise, there is a great opportunity to use the railroad and utilize the existing tracks between Ferromex and the major railroads in the United States. This reduces transportation costs, although it slightly increases travel time,” Ceballos explained.
Industrial spaces under adjustment
The industrial real estate market is also undergoing a period of readjustment. During the logistics boom following the COVID-19 pandemic—especially between 2022 and 2024—demand for warehouses and distribution centers on the border triggered a wave of construction.
As a result, Mexicali went from registering minimal availability levels to currently reaching approximately 9% vacancy in industrial spaces , while in Tijuana the figure hovers around 10% . This increase is due to the arrival of new projects developed during the logistics boom , coupled with a slowdown in the arrival of new industrial operations. In Tijuana, projects that are underway or in the planning stages represent 4%, according to Ceballos.
In addition, regulatory changes in the United States—such as modifications to cross-border e-commerce programs—reduced the viability of some fulfillment centers located in Mexicali for distributing merchandise to the U.S. market; however, Tijuana had a greater impact than Mexicali on these logistics facilities.
Another factor facing the region is the electricity crisis, which has prevented the full development of industrial parks.
“Last year there were a good number of new industrial parks in Tijuana that were operating with diesel plants, so it is impossible to meet the needs of a heavy industry with a plant of that type; maybe a distribution center can do it, but not heavy industry,” Ceballos said.
This is particularly relevant given that Baja California ranks among the top recipients of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico. In 2025 alone, the border state attracted $1.892 billion , placing it fourth nationally, representing a 4.6% share, according to the Ministry of Economy.
According to the Tijuana Economic and Industrial Development Agency (Deitac) , the electronics sector led the way in attracting capital with 34 projects, solidifying its position as the state’s main industrial driver. Logistics and distribution centers followed with 14 projects. Addressing these challenges could increase the attraction of foreign investment to this state.
USMCA, crucial for regional logistics
The review of the USMCA is currently the focus of attention for businesses, carriers, and logistics operators . The outcome of this process will determine the stability of supply chains between Mexico, the United States, and Canada.
For the industry, the trade agreement not only facilitates trade, but also promotes the development of technical talent in Mexico, highlighted the president of SDL Group, who added that for decades, export manufacturing has allowed for the formation of highly specialized human capital in production, engineering and industrial management in Baja California , which represents a competitive advantage over other regions.
In this scenario, Ceballos indicated, the business sector’s expectation revolves around the review of the USMCA keeping the doors open to regional trade and strengthening North American productive integration.
By 2026, the logistics landscape in Baja California presents a mix of caution and opportunity. The industry continues to invest in infrastructure, training programs, and transportation optimization, while awaiting greater certainty within the North American trade framework.
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