The future of the automotive industry in Mexico will be closely linked to the political and commercial environment of 2026 , according to Pedro Tello Villagrán, economist and business advisor, who considered that the sector will face a scenario of high uncertainty, derived, mainly, from the negotiation style of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and the review process of the Treaty between Mexico, United States and Canada (USMCA) .
The specialist recalled that, while in 2020 Trump described the USMCA as the most important trade agreement signed by the United States, at the beginning of 2026 he publicly declared that the treaty is “irrelevant” and that the northern neighbor “does not need cars made in Mexico”.
This contradiction, Tello pointed out, shows how trade and the automotive industry are being used as political instruments in a key election year for the United States, in which the composition of Congress will be renewed and, in some states, governors will be elected.
According to the economist, this stance represents a direct risk for Mexico , given its heavy reliance on a single market and the decisions of a single president. The automotive industry, a pillar of Mexico’s export sector, could be affected by tariff threats, changes in rules of origin, or pressure to relocate production to the United States.
At the close of 2025, the automotive industry in Mexico registered a slight contraction in both vehicle production and exports, amidst global adjustments. According to figures from the Mexican Automotive Industry Association (AMIA) , approximately 3.95 million vehicles were produced during the year, while exports decreased by 2.7% year-on-year.
However, AMIA highlighted that dependence on the US market remains high, as 78.4% of vehicles produced in Mexico were exported to the United States , and together with Canada they accounted for around 90% of total exports , which reaffirms the strong integration and complementarity of the Mexican automotive sector with the North American region.
During the virtual conference ” Mexico 2026: A Year of Challenges for the Economy and Businesses ,” organized by the National Association of Vehicle Tracking and Protection Companies (ANERPV) , Tello Villagrán emphasized that the review of the USMCA will be crucial for the sector , not only because of the agreement’s technical content, but also because of the need to restore certainty. In his view, Mexico must come to the negotiating table with a firm position that prioritizes clear rules, compliance with agreements, and productive integration based on real competitive advantages.
Beyond the treaty, he argued that the Mexican automotive industry must rethink its long-term strategy. Relying exclusively on the U.S. market increases the sector’s vulnerability to political shocks and unilateral decisions. Therefore, he emphasized the need to strengthen domestic production capacity, diversify markets, and move toward a model that reduces exposure to external volatility.
In that sense, the Mexico Plan was identified as a tool that, although it has fallen short of initial expectations, remains the only available strategy to promote national content , productive investment, and the development of stronger value chains within the country.
In 2026, the Mexican automotive industry will move between caution and adaptation , Tello considered.
“I believe that the path the Mexican government will follow is to align itself with the United States’ decision to build a wall against Chinese imports in order to strengthen regional economic integration,” he stressed.
Exporting companies will maintain reasonable operations and profitability levels, but expansion and investment decisions will continue to be contingent on the outcome of the USMCA and the political environment in the United States. For Mexico, he said, the challenge will be to use this year not only to withstand external pressure, but also to redefine the course of one of its strategic sectors.
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