In the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), global merchandise trade volume grew 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 53% year-on-year , driven by a surge in North American imports ahead of US tariff hikes, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said , warning that the pace of expansion could slow in the coming months as fully replenished inventories and higher tariffs weigh on import demand.
According to the multilateral organization, growth in the volume of merchandise trade in the first quarter of the year exceeded WTO forecasts; however, it anticipated an increase of just 0.1% in 2025, due to the tariff war driven by the United States .
“Meanwhile, the US dollar value of global merchandise trade—measured by non-seasonally adjusted exports—increased 4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting strong volume growth and falling prices,” he emphasized.
During the reference period, there were significant disparities between regions in the growth of merchandise trade volumes, especially in imports.
North America recorded the highest quarter-on-quarter import growth of all regions, at 13.4%, followed by Africa at 5.1%; South America, Central America, and the Caribbean at 3.6%; the Middle East at 3%; Europe at 1.3%; and Asia at 1.1%.
In terms of exports , the Middle East showed the largest increase in the period with 6.3%, followed by Asia with 5.6%, South America with 3.2%, Africa with 2.5%, Europe with 1.9% and North America with 1.8 percent.
The analysis indicated that in terms of value, the best performance was recorded in office and telecommunications equipment (16% year-on-year), followed by chemicals (12%) and clothing (7%), the WTO noted.
In contrast, automotive, fuel, and mining products showed a contraction equivalent to 4 percent.
The WTO detailed that US imports increased 25% in Q1 2025, but only 1% in the first two months of the second quarter.
From January to May 2025, U.S. imports increased 15 percent. As for exports, shipments from China increased 6 percent year-over-year in both the first and second quarters.
The progress seen in global merchandise trade in the first quarter of the year occurs in a context marked by the global tariff war, driven by the United States, which has led the global economy to a period of uncertainty.
In Mexico, analysts have predicted ups and downs in inflation and a slowdown in consumption for the remainder of the year, as well as expectations of low economic growth.
Comment and follow us on X: @GrupoT21
