Because uncertainty will continue to hold back Mexico’s economic activity, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its growth projection for the country from 1.6% to 1.2% in 2026 , although it estimated that conditions exist for a moderate recovery driven by less restrictive domestic policies.
In the “World Economic Outlook Update: The global economy between the crosswinds of war and technology”, the organization also lowered its estimate of the Mexican economy for 2027, from 2.2% to 1.9 percent .
If the international organization’s projections materialize, slower growth in the Mexican economy would translate into a setback and stagnation in various sectors of the country, such as decreased household consumption, a drop in employment, and less foreign and domestic investment, among other factors. Despite these estimates, Mexican authorities have indicated that the country’s economy will perform better.
Regarding global growth , he estimated it will be 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, figures that represent a reduction from the average of 3.5% observed in 2024–2025.
This slight slowdown is due to the fact that the effects of the war in the Middle East are partly offset by the greater impetus that demand gives to the global technology cycle thanks to advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and its adoption.
“The impact varies considerably depending on the degree to which each country is exposed to war and its position in the technological value chain,” the report noted.
For advanced economies , growth rates of 1.7% are projected for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027.
In the case of the United States , he estimated that growth will be 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. “Activity is supported by fiscal policy and favorable financial conditions, as well as by continued investment in technology by companies and strong productivity,” he said.
In the euro area , growth will be 0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, stemming from a significant negative impact carried over from the first quarter, largely attributable to Ireland, but also indicating a moderation of momentum elsewhere. “This is compounded by the drag imposed by rising energy costs—despite some fiscal mitigation measures—and weak consumer confidence.”
China ‘s growth is projected to slow to 4.6% in 2026, as economic activity is expected to be hampered by rising global oil prices, prolonged uncertainty, and structural obstacles.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is expected to remain stable at 2.4% in 2026 and then increase moderately to 2.7% in 2027, with different dynamics among countries.
The IMF warned that an escalation of international conflicts could lead to further increases in oil prices , put pressure on inflation, prolong commodity price volatility, exacerbate factors that threaten supply chains, raise prices and negatively impact financial conditions in various countries.
In that regard, he estimated that global headline inflation will rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, before falling to 3.9% in 2027. “These projections indicate that the disinflation trend observed since the beginning of 2024 has stalled.”
The IMF noted that trade tensions could reignite —especially if trade diversion or trade imbalances lead more economies to raise tariffs and adopt non-tariff barriers— and weigh on growth.
“Measures targeting sectors in the early stages of production chains or critical intermediate inputs could cause supply bottlenecks, with disproportionately severe effects on output and prices. Retaliatory measures would amplify these costs and could disrupt global supply chains,” he estimated.
Nevertheless, he indicated that global growth could exceed forecasts if tangible progress is made in international negotiations and national policy agendas.
“If a lasting peace agreement is reached, global trade routes and supply chains could be quickly restored. Trade agreements could reduce tariffs and revive investments that have been postponed due to the uncertainty of the external environment,” he stressed.
In that regard, he indicated that international cooperation remains essential to managing the “contagion effects,” including pressures in commodity markets, refugee flows, and debt vulnerabilities, and called for avoiding export bans so as not to exacerbate the difficulties faced by trading partners.
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