Due to increased dynamism in economic activity, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) anticipated a growth of 1.5% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2026 , a higher rate than the one estimated three months ago, which was 1.1 percent.
In its Quarterly Report April-June 2026 , published on August 26, the central bank projected an economic growth of 2% for 2027, which is a slight decrease compared to the forecast in the previous report (2.1%).
The range for the expected variation of GDP this year is between 1% and 2%, while for 2027 it is between 1.2% and 2.8 percent.
The revision for GDP in 2026 results from stronger-than-anticipated growth in economic activity in the second quarter.
“For the remainder of the forecast path, a moderate and gradual acceleration in quarterly growth rates is still expected,” he noted.
Although the Bank of Mexico has an optimistic projection, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains a more moderate expectation.
Last July, the international organization cut its GDP growth forecast for Mexico from 1.6% to 1.2% for 2026 , due to economic uncertainty. It also reduced its GDP forecast for 2027, from 2.2% to 1.9%.
“In Mexico, growth is projected to accelerate modestly amid less restrictive domestic policies, but uncertainty will continue to limit activity,” the IMF noted in its World Economic Outlook update .
The IMF’s projection aligns with that of the World Bank (WB) , which had estimated growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
Inflation and other indicators
Banxico’s report also anticipated that headline and core inflation would continue to decline. In this regard, it again placed inflation within the range of 3% +/- one percentage point .
“The current forecast for headline inflation considers a downward revision in the third quarter of 2026, which is attributable to lower levels than previously anticipated for non-core inflation in that period in response to lower expected levels in agricultural price variations,” he stressed.
Banxico noted that despite the weakness shown by private consumption at the beginning of 2026, this indicator is expected to recover a positive trend.
He estimated that investment would remain weak as a reflection of the uncertainty surrounding the trade relationship with the United States and the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in the face of the new phase of annual reviews.
Meanwhile, exports are expected to show moderate expansion , in line with the expected performance of industrial production in the United States and supported by the acquisition of goods related to the technology sector in the northern neighbor.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , Mexican exports reached 72 billion 551 million dollars (mdd) in June 2026 , a growth of 34.4% annually, according to the result of the Balance of Trade of Goods of Mexico (BCMM).
Banxico considered that the balance of risks to economic growth with respect to its forecasts remains skewed to the downside, due to various factors, including the intensification of the environment of uncertainty related to policies that could be implemented in the United States, particularly in trade and in light of the annual reviews of the USMCA.
Among the upside risks to growth in the forecast horizon, the most notable was that the growth of the US economy might be greater than expected, and that this could favor the external demand that Mexico faces.
Furthermore, greater-than-anticipated progress in the annual review process and ratification of the USMCA, as well as less uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, will contribute to a more favorable environment for investment in Mexico and boost trade in the region.
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