Mexico has not fully capitalized on the opportunity created by nearshoring , despite the advantages offered by its trade integration with the United States and its position in North America, said Paulina Anciola, Deputy Director of Economic Studies at Banamex .
In an interview with T21, the specialist pointed out that, although investments associated with the relocation of production chains were registered after the COVID-19 pandemic , the phenomenon did not reach the magnitude that was expected a few years ago.
“In terms of nearshoring , I really think a large part of it remained just a narrative,” he stated.
Anciola acknowledged that these investments were made particularly in the Bajío region, where new centers were established. However, he noted that the realization of nearshoring has been less than expected, since in the last two years there has been practically no significant influx of new capital , and a large part of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) corresponds to reinvestment of profits from companies already established in Mexico.
In that regard, he explained that during the first years after the pandemic there was an expectation that Mexico would capture a significant portion of the investment that was looking to leave Asia and move closer to the US market.
However, he considered that the increase in global uncertainty ended up “cooling” some of those projects.
“When there is greater uncertainty, long-term investment tends to wait for conditions to be a little more favorable, for rates to be a little lower, and for the rules of the game to be clearer,” he explained.
The economist argued that the country maintains structural advantages that are difficult to replicate , particularly due to its proximity to the United States and its participation in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
“At the end of the day, being on the side of the United States is going to stay there forever, and Mexico is going to have that advantage against the rest of the world forever,” he said.
However, he warned that the country continues to face challenges in terms of productivity, infrastructure, job training, and investment certainty.
“I think a large part of nearshoring has been lost because of that, and I think Mexico has been in the ‘now we are going to take advantage of the opportunity’ phase for many years, and in the end it has never fully materialized,” he stated.
According to Anciola, as long as there is no new wave of investment, it will be difficult to talk about a consolidation of the phenomenon in Mexico.
According to the Ministry of Economy , FDI in Mexico reached a record figure of 23 billion 591 million dollars (mdd) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), which meant a growth of 10.4% compared to the same period in 2025.
Of the total FDI, new investments increased 7.5% year-on-year in Q1 2026; while reinvestment of profits registered a year-on-year increase of 33.5% in the cycle.
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