Mexico could have an economic growth of 1% in 2026 , which would mean a decrease from the 1.2% proposed by Grupo Financiero BASE in a previous review, as explained by Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis of this institution.

In the webinar “Economic Outlook, GDP Estimate for the First Quarter of 2026” , the specialist considered that, in a pessimistic scenario, the country’s economic growth would be 0.60%, and in an optimistic environment it would advance 1.45%, derived from various factors, including the economic spillover from the World Cup.

The decline in the three groups of economic activities – primary, secondary and tertiary – which contributed to the 0.8% quarterly decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) gives signs of what he called a “stagnation trap” , caused by the weakening of institutions, increased informality, a drop in fixed investment and a decline in productivity.

“The quarterly drop in GDP was indeed sharp, and although we expect a rebound in the second quarter, this would be largely due to the World Cup, which we believe will add 0.15 percentage points to GDP through tourism and additional consumption,” he explained.

The analyst considered that the low growth of the Mexican economy is not a temporary situation, but a structural one , which is reflected in a high rate of informality in employment that, as of last March, stood at 54.85 percent.

Regarding private consumption , which is one of the indicators of GDP, Siller explained that in 2025 this sector closed with an increase of 1.20%, the lowest since 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. “This year consumption started off on the wrong foot, with a drop of 1.55% compared to December 2025.”

By 2026, the financial institution forecasts that private consumption will grow between 1.8% and 2.2% , driven by the World Cup and a greater number of tourists arriving in Mexico for the sporting event.

Gross fixed investment ( machinery and equipment for the production of goods and services) also declined at the start of 2026. According to figures presented by Siller, this indicator fell 14% compared to 2024, when it reached its historical peak. He noted that in 2025, gross fixed investment decreased by 6.5%, and the projection for 2026 is a further decline of 2%.

“There weren’t two consecutive years with declines, something we hadn’t seen since 2019, when Mexico was in a slight recession, and 2020 due to the pandemic,” he emphasized.

Regarding Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico, he noted that although historical high levels have been reached, it should be considered that a large percentage has been for reinvestment.

At the close of 2025, Mexico received $40.871 billion in FDI, which represented a growth of 10.8% compared to the FDI received in 2024, when it was $36.872 billion, according to figures from the Ministry of Economy .

According to Siller, 67.65% of FDI in 2025 was for reinvestment of profits , 14.30% intercompany accounts , and 18.05% was for new investments .

Regarding the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , the specialist said that, although there is a lot of uncertainty, “I think that in the end it will not end badly, unless there are political issues that stop this trade relationship.”

On another topic, he specified that since last year, computer equipment has been Mexico’s top export. “If this product hadn’t grown so much last year, at a rate of 144%, Mexican exports would have fallen by 0.54 percent.”

“But there are several risks. Computer equipment is not a long-term guarantee. To begin with, Mexico is not the main supplier of this product to the United States; that distinction belongs to Taiwan. In fact, for many months we were the main supplier, but Taiwan has now overtaken us. Taiwan accounts for 45% of total U.S. imports of this product, while Mexico accounts for 31%,” he stated.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , Mexican exports totaled 70 billion 727 million dollars (mdd) in March 2026 , a growth of 27.7% compared to the same month of 2025.

Regarding inflation, he estimated that it will close this year at 4.2 percent . “Inflation was already expected last year. The truth is that Mexico was fortunate with the reduction in non-core inflation, because we know that non-core inflation is very volatile; even more so if we add factors such as public insecurity in Mexico, which has reduced fruit and vegetable harvests, increasing their price. On the other hand, the increase in energy prices due to the war in Iran is also a latent threat; this has caused consumer inflation to rise in Mexico,” he emphasized.

It is worth remembering that inflation in Mexico stood at 4.59% at an annual rate in March 2026 , driven by a rise in agricultural products and services such as air transport, according to data from Inegi.

According to Banco BASE’s estimates, the Mexican economic outlook is not encouraging, although there are indicators showing a slow recovery that could improve the situation in the second quarter of the year.

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El cargo Banco BASE remains cautious regarding Mexico’s GDP growth outlook apareció primero en T21.

Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Ministry of Economy (SE) , highlighted that the investment portfolio in Mexico has been increased , rising from 367.9 billion dollars (USD) to 406.8 billion dollars, resulting from the integration of strategic projects identified by the investment promotion committees in the 32 federal entities.

During the First National Investment Promotion Meeting , held this Wednesday, he said that one of the objectives is the joint work of the private sector with the public sector, and highlighted that just over a year after the launch of the Mexico Plan , the country has positioned itself as the main exporter to the United States.

In that regard, he added that Mexico pays the lowest tariffs among the United States’ trading partners. Regarding the Economic Development Hubs for Well-being , of the 14 planned, he specified that seven are already under construction, four will begin construction in the coming weeks, and three more will be added to the project.

Regarding industrial property , Ebrard indicated that the federal government will reduce delivery times from five years to one. He also specified that Nacional Financiera (Nafin) and the National Foreign Trade Bank (Bancomext) will allocate resources for innovation projects during 2026.

For his part, José Medina Mora Icaza, president of the Business Coordinating Council (CCE) , highlighted the infrastructure investment announced on February 3 by the federal government, which includes 5.6 trillion pesos from 2026 to the end of the current six-year term, 772 billion pesos for this year, “where there are eight strategic sectors, a little more than half in energy, because energy is the spearhead, we need energy so that investment arrives in other sectors, but also investment in highways, in health, in hospitals, in education.”

He emphasized that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as of September 2025 totaled 41 billion dollars, “a figure more or less similar to all of 2024, with one big difference: in 2024 there was only 7% new investment, while in the ninth month of last year it was 15%; this means that foreign companies are trusting in our country, they are betting on investing in Mexico.”

Altagracia Gómez Sierra, coordinator of the Advisory Council for Economic, Regional, and Relocation Development, said that Mexico must accelerate projects and strengthen public-private coordination to reach the investment target equivalent to 25% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) . She emphasized that the Mexico Plan presented a national vision that seeks to empower Mexico through industrial policy, planning, and collaboration among businesses, academia, and government authorities.

He recalled the work that has been done with various federal government agencies to reduce red tape, provide energy certainty, increase national content in public procurement and combat smuggling, and highlighted advances in economic and commercial matters such as tax incentives for relocation, deductibility for technical education, development of industrial parks, and investments in housing.

Meanwhile, Roberto Lazzeri Montaño, CEO of Nafin and Bancomext, said that development banks not only provide financing, but also multiply the impact of every peso invested.

In that context, he pointed out that Nafin and Bancomext, together with commercial banks, will boost financing for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), with guarantees on loans of up to 20 million for priority sectors of the Mexico Plan, up to 80% for first-time loans and a reduction in factoring financing costs.

She also announced the reinstatement of the 32 constructive councils and the relaunch of three programs to reach areas currently underserved by the financial sector. She stated that they are promoting specific programs for women entrepreneurs , specifically “women exporters, provided that up to 51% of the capital is owned by women and they control the formal businesses and micro-businesses. Up to three million pesos for entrepreneurs, 30 million pesos for exporters, and up to 500,000 pesos for micro-businesses with at least one year of operation.”

Similarly, the Impulsora de Innovación México (Mexico Innovation Promoter ) announced a program that is an implementation tool of the Mexico Plan, which coordinates financing, technical support, and co-investment schemes to mobilize public and private capital towards strategic sectors and projects with high economic impact at the technological level, which will mobilize a total investment of 1.6 billion pesos.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum emphasized the infrastructure investment she announced on February 3rd, “ which will allow us to boost investment in energy, highways, airports, ports, hospitals, and schools, enabling development with well-being .”

He also noted that on Wednesday he presented investments by Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) totaling 425 billion pesos. “ Pemex performed very well in 2025 thanks to various schemes that were also jointly developed between the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) . And this year, not only in oil but also in all aspects of oil processing and gas, we will boost investment in energy.”  

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El cargo Private sector and federal government highlight investments in Mexico apareció primero en T21.

In the webinar “Economic Outlook: GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter (4Q25)”, the analyst indicated that in a pessimistic scenario, GDP would be 0.6% by the end of this year , while in an optimistic projection it could be 1.4 percent.

The specialist explained that despite the challenges posed by tariffs and other issues, Mexico avoided a technical recession in 2025, although it did fall into what she called a “stagnation trap,” resulting from weakened institutions, increased informality, a drop in fixed investment, and a decline in productivity.

Regarding Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) , he warned that although the flow of foreign capital has reached historic levels, with 40,906 million dollars (USD) in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), an increase of 14.46% compared to the same period in 2024, a record based on reinvestment of profits is not the same as one driven by new projects .

According to the analysis, new investments represented only 16.05% of FDI between January and September of last year, while in 2022 it was 45 percent.

Of the FDI in Q3 2025, the manufacturing sector was the main destination with 37.13%, and the manufacture of transport equipment was the most important subsector with 19.93% of the total FDI; meanwhile, the production of computer equipment was 6.35 percent.

Siller explained that 79.78% of FDI from the United States was reinvested profits, while only 11.86% was new investment. He indicated that Mexico can find greater market share in computer exports, a segment that grew by 89.25% in the January-November period of 2025.

However, the director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE said that Mexico does not have the plant capacity to produce more of these devices in order to continue advancing in this market.

He noted that the country was, for 20 consecutive months, the main supplier of computer equipment, “then Taiwan won, then Mexico regained market share, but in 2026 it is very likely that Mexico will remain in second place,” he said.

“With all this, Mexico is the United States’ main trading partner and the main supplier of U.S. imports, which is good news. However, this leads us to something that could be a cause for concern regarding the review of the USMCA. China remains the country with which the United States has the largest trade deficit, at $189 billion, but Mexico is very close, and this figure has been narrowing by 2025. In fact, in October the difference was around $15 billion,” he explained.

Regarding private consumption , Siller reported that this indicator showed a growth of 0.58% until October of last year, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when it registered a drop of 10.67 percent.

According to estimates from the financial institution, remittances are also expected to plummet by around 20% this year, due to an aggressive immigration policy and the deteriorating job market in the United States.

Regarding employment , Siller specified that 2025 marked a turning point for the Mexican labor market, showing a decline.

“We saw that in total employment, 1,057,970 jobs were created, of which 1,161,926 were informal jobs, which means that in formal employment, jobs were actually destroyed (-103,956). This is something that has only been seen in periods of recession in Mexico,” Siller pointed out, according to his shared graphs.

He pointed out that the above was generated by the economic stagnation, since there are not enough incentives, such as a good salary or better benefits, for companies to hire from the formal sector.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the informality rate rose from 54.27% in 2024 to 54.85% in 2025. “What does this mean? Well, it means that Mexico’s productivity fell, because the formal sector generated almost 75% of the total value of the economy, while the informal sector contributed 25%,” he emphasized.

Adding to this problem is the reduction in the number of employers , which totaled 1,029,280 last December. On an annual basis, this represents a drop of 25,667 employers, marking 18 consecutive months of decline.

USMCA Review

Regarding the USMCA, Siller stated that, according to various surveys conducted in the United States and in the US Congress itself, there is a trend indicating that they do want the trade agreement to continue, particularly Republicans, who are in favor of the USMCA.

He estimated that Canada would not withdraw from the treaty , although if that were to happen, it would not represent a concern for Mexico, “I think that this would even give it an opportunity to grow more, to obtain a greater market share.”

According to BASE estimates, Siller also ruled out the possibility of the United States withdrawing from the USMCA . “Furthermore, even if the United States were to withdraw from the trade agreement, trade between Mexico and the United States would not end.”

“What is very likely is that the review will become more of a renegotiation , but to the point that it won’t have to go through the United States Congress. They will want to make modifications to the rules of origin, the labor content, and the dispute resolution mechanism . Above all, we believe they will want to increase the rules of origin to 80%, and that there will be a transition period, just as there was from NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) to the USMCA, but now that transition period will include tariffs until companies are fully compliant,” he explained.

It is worth remembering that Marcelo Ebrard, head of the  Ministry of Economy , and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative (USTR) , held a meeting on January 28, in which they addressed a series of possible reforms to the trade agreement, including stricter rules of origin for key industrial goods.

El cargo The global economy would boost Mexico’s GDP, although there are challenges such as the USMCA: Banco BASE apareció primero en T21.

Foreign Direct Investment  (FDI) in the transportation, postal and storage sector in Mexico during the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) registered a drop of 20.1% compared to the same period in 2024 (3Q24), according to data from the Ministry of Economy (SE) .

From July to September of this year, FDI focused on this industry totaled $1.9456 billion , representing 4.7% of the total accumulated FDI . In the same period of 2024, this sector registered $2.4374 billion, according to SE statistics.

So far this year, FDI inflows in the transport and logistics sector totaled $3,038.8 million, compared to $6,212.8 million in the first nine months of 2024, representing a decrease of 51 percent.

It is worth remembering that Mexico attracted $40.906 billion in FDI in Q3 2025 , a 15% increase compared to the same period in 2024, according to the federal agency.

According to the SE, the air transport subsector reached $20.7 million in the third quarter of 2025, which meant a decrease of 69% compared to 3Q24, when it was $66.8 million.

During the reporting period, rail transport showed a negative performance in terms of attracting FDI, which amounted to -$3.3 million. This subsector did not register any FDI during Q3 2024.

Water transport also declined. In the July-September period of this year, FDI attracted by this subsector was seven million dollars, a 54% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, when it totaled 15.2 million dollars.

During the cycle, pipeline transportation registered foreign capital flows of 1,615.9 million dollars, which represented a drop of 15.6% compared to the same period last year, when it reached 1,916.2 million dollars.

Transportation-related services also experienced a slowdown in attracting FDI. In Q3 2025, this subsector totaled $299.5 million, a 1.3% decrease from the $303.6 million it received in Q3 2024.

Meanwhile, FDI in courier and parcel services attracted $6.5 million compared to $132.9 million in the third quarter of 2024, representing a 95 percent reduction.

Other subsectors, such as  freight transport and postal services, registered zero FDI inflows in Q3 2025, while warehousing services attracted $1.9 million during the cycle.

Despite the decline in FDI inflows recorded in the transport, postal and warehousing sector in Mexico in the third quarter of 2025, the country’s logistics industry remains resilient , and has faced challenges such as road blockades and new tariff rates.

This sector facilitates the movement of goods, both within and outside the country, and helps companies to optimize processes, reduce costs, and increase efficiency.

According to the consulting firm Expert Market Research , the logistics market in Mexico is estimated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.2% between 2025 and 2034, reaching a value of $3,044.59 million in 2034.

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El cargo Foreign Direct Investment in transport and logistics in Mexico weakens further in Q3 2025 apareció primero en T21.

After the rebound shown last October, manufacturing orders fell again in November 2025 on a monthly basis, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) and the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) announced this Tuesday .

The  Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM) stood at  48.3 units , a monthly decline of 4 points in November of this year.

The IPM, which presents the expectations and perception of business executives on the performance of the manufacturing sector in Mexico, also registered negative figures in its annual measurement, with a decrease of 2.7 points .

Within the IPM, monthly declines were recorded in four of the five components that make it up .

In November 2025, raw material inventories saw the largest decline , falling 8.8 units compared to the previous October. This was followed by production , with a drop of 7.4 points.  Orders  showed a decrease of 2.9 units month-on-month, and total employment fell 0.8 points during the period.

Timeliness in the delivery of supplies from providers  was the only indicator that registered progress, with an increase of 0.3 units in the eleventh month of the year in its monthly measurement.

By the subsector groups that make up the IPM, those showing the greatest year-on-year declines were petroleum and coal derivatives, the chemical industry, and the plastics and rubber industry , with 12.9 points. This was followed by food, beverages, and tobacco , with 1.3 points; computer equipment, electronic accessories, and electrical appliances , with a decrease of 1.1 points; and textiles, clothing, leather and hides, wood, paper, and other industries , with a decrease of 0.3 points.

Despite a decline in the IPM last November, the Mexican manufacturing industry remains one of the main activities attracting Foreign Direct Investment , receiving 37.1% of foreign capital in the third quarter of 2025 , according to the  Ministry of Economy .

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El cargo Manufacturing Orders Indicator falls in November apareció primero en T21.

Amid the tariff policy promoted by the United States, the Mexican manufacturing industry continues to register advances, according to the Monthly Indicator of Manufacturing Activity (IMOAM) , prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In October 2025, Inegi anticipated a slight rebound in manufacturing activity of 0.1% compared to the same month last year.

In the tenth month of the year, according to information from Inegi, this indicator showed a value of 111.3 points .

According to figures released by IMOAM on Monday, the manufacturing sector has shown resilience in the face of global trade changes and remains an attractive industry for attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

According to data from the Ministry of Economy (SE) , Mexico attracted 40 billion 906 million dollars (mdd) of FDI during the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), a 15% increase compared to the same cycle in 2024.

Of that total, manufacturing accounted for 37.1% of FDI , followed by financial services with 25.1%, construction with 5%; and transport, mail and storage with 4.8%, although reinvestments continue to be the main driver of foreign capital flows in Mexico, with a share of 68 percent.

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El cargo Mexican manufacturing activity is expected to advance in October apareció primero en T21.

Mexico attracted $40.906 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) during the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) , a 15% increase compared to the same period in 2024, announced Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Ministry of Economy (SE) , who considered the figure reached in the period a new record .

“We are going to reach almost 41 billion dollars, that’s what we have this last quarter. If we compare it to 2024, it grew 15%,” Ebrard highlighted at the morning press conference this Wednesday.

This pace of FDI, he explained, “means that investors from all over the world are deciding to invest in Mexico in a greater proportion than we had even expected.”

Of the total FDI in the period, the federal official highlighted that new investments were the area that showed the greatest dynamism in the cycle, going from two billion dollars to six billion five hundred million dollars .

“New investments in a country. That is, they are not reinvestments, but new investments,” he emphasized, adding that the sectors that will benefit are energy, data centers, infrastructure projects, and the financial sector.

Meanwhile, manufacturing accounted for 37.1% of total FDI, followed by financial services with 25.1%, construction with 5%; and transportation, postal and storage services with 4.8%, according to figures presented by Ebrard.

According to SE data, as of the third quarter of 2025, reinvestment of profits accounted for 68%, new investments for 16%, and intercompany accounts for 16%.

The United States accounted for 39.46% of total investment flows, confirming its strategic importance as Mexico’s main investment partner. It was followed by Spain with 14.09%, Japan with 7.05%, the Netherlands with 6.31%, and Canada with 5.61%.

By state, Mexico City remains the top destination for foreign investment, accounting for 55.77% of the total. It was followed by Nuevo León with 10.15%, the State of Mexico with 7.74%, Baja California with 4.36%, and Coahuila with 2.88% as of Q3 2025.

From 2018 to 2025, foreign direct investment in Mexico has grown by 69%, the Secretary of Economy pointed out, emphasizing that this represents “constant growth, but it is accelerating.”

He explained that the figure reached in the period means that investors have confidence in the Mexican government and consolidates a trend of growth in FDI in the country, since good results were also obtained in the previous quarter, with an FDI of 34 billion 265 million dollars .

Ebrard also reported that Mexican exports continue to rise , despite an adverse economic and geopolitical environment, framed by the United States’ tariff policy.

In that regard, he indicated that shipments of goods abroad grew 48% from 2020 to 2024 , going from 417 billion dollars to 617 billion dollars , with an annual growth rate of 10.5% in the reference period.

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El cargo Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico reaches new record in Q3 2025 apareció primero en T21.

Trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and high interest rates kept investors cautious, resulting in a 3% drop in global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the first half of 2025 (1H25) , the  United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) revealed .

The decline was driven by developed economies, where cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) fell 18% to $173 billion, according to the organization’s latest Global Investment Trends Report .

Overall, developing economies performed better, with flows remaining stable. “However, trends diverged by region. Capital inflows increased by 12% in Latin America and the Caribbean and by 7% in developing countries in Asia, but fell by 42% in Africa,” UNCTAD noted.

On the other hand, high borrowing costs and economic uncertainty continued to hold back investment in industry and infrastructure during the first half of 2025.

“Announcements of projects from scratch fell 17%, due to a 29% decrease in supply chain-intensive manufacturing , such as textiles, electronics and automotive, amid tariff uncertainty,” the analysis detailed.

Meanwhile, international project financing saw an 11% decrease in the number of transactions and an 8% decrease in their value.

The trend was more positive in developing economies, where project finance operations fell by only 2% after two years of sharp declines.

Meanwhile, the value of global investment in new plans increased by 7% , driven by major projects in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the digital economy .

“The United States recorded $237 billion in new green infrastructure projects in the first half of 2025, a figure that almost equals the total for 2024 and quadruples the average for the first half of the previous decade. More than half of this value came from AI-related sectors, particularly semiconductors and data centers,” the UNCTAD report stated.

Investment projects related to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in developing countries fell by 10% in number and 7% in value at the beginning of 2025, following sharp declines in the previous year.

UNCTAD explained that internationally financed projects, including transport and utilities, remained approximately 25% below the decade average, while new construction infrastructure activity fell 31% in value and 25% in number, led by sharp contractions in Latin America and the Caribbean (-78% in value and -43% in number).

The United Nations report indicated that investment in renewable energy also weakened .

“Globally, international financing for projects in the sector fell by 9% in number and 10% in value. Global projects for new renewable energy installations also decreased by 55% in number and 21% in value. In developing economies, projects fell by 23%. In the least developed countries, the decrease was 31% in number and 18% in value,” he noted.

UNCTAD anticipated that geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, economic fragmentation and efforts to reduce risks in supply chains will continue to affect capital flows for the remainder of 2025.

“Even so, the easing of financial conditions, the increase in mergers and acquisitions activity in the third quarter and the greater overseas spending by sovereign wealth funds could support a modest recovery by the end of the year ,” the agency estimated.

It is worth remembering that, during the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25), Mexico attracted a new all-time high in FDI, with 34 billion 265 million dollars , which meant an increase of 10.2% compared to the same period in 2024, when it was 31 billion 096 million dollars.

36% of FDI went to the manufacturing sector . “Financial services also stand out with 26.7%, followed by construction and mining with 7.6% and 7.2%, respectively,” the Ministry of Economy (SE) emphasized .

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El cargo Global Foreign Direct Investment Falls During the First Half of 2025: UNCTAD apareció primero en T21.

Foreign Direct Investment  (FDI) that Mexico captured during the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) reached a new historical high, with 34.265 billion dollars (mdd) , which meant an increase of 10.2% compared to the same period in 2024, when it was 31.096 billion dollars, as announced by the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum.

At her morning press conference this Thursday, the president highlighted FDI in the second quarter of 2025, as well as the resilience of the Mexican economy in the face of the uncertainty surrounding tariffs imposed by the United States.

“Not even tariffs could stop the Mexican economy; it’s $34.265 billion in 2025, exceeding the $31.096 billion in 2024, which had already been a record and is practically more than double that of 2017,” he stressed, adding that this data was shared with him by the Ministry of Economy (SE) .

The sectors that contributed most to the rise in FDI during the reference period were manufacturing , telecommunications, the financial sector, and construction, as well as new capital injections into clean energy and infrastructure projects.

Sheinbaum asserted that these results reflect the confidence of international investors in the economic stability and opportunities that Mexico offers in a complex international context.

In this regard, he concluded that the Mexican economy is on track to close out 2025 with one of the largest inflows of foreign capital in its history.

The SE reported that new investments during the period increased 3.4 times compared to the same period in 2024, representing a new all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.

Of the total investment recorded in 2Q25, reinvestment of earnings accounted for 84.4%, new investments accounted for 9.2%, and intercompany accounts accounted for 6.4%.

The United States remained Mexico’s largest investment partner , accounting for 42.9% of total flows. Spain followed with 17.3% and Canada with 5.1%.

The federal agency detailed that 79.2% of the FDI received in the second quarter of 2025 was concentrated in five states in the country. Mexico City was the main destination, accounting for 56.4% of the total. Nuevo León followed with 8.8%, and the State of Mexico with 6.6%.

Meanwhile, 36% of FDI came from the manufacturing sector. Also notable are financial services, with 26.7%, and construction and mining, with 7.6% and 7.2%, respectively.

According to the  United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) , in its World Investment Report 2025 , Central America experienced modest growth in FDI inflows, with Mexico leading the way thanks to investments in the manufacturing and logistics sectors .

Furthermore, the country stood out as one of the 10 countries that captured 80% of investment in new areas of the digital economy, with a 5% share, or US$29 billion, in the 2020-2024 period, according to UNCTAD data.

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El cargo Foreign Direct Investment “dodges” tariffs in 2Q25; reaches new record in Mexico apareció primero en T21.

Announcements of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects in Mexico in the transportation and storage sector for the period 2020-2024 amounted to more than one billion dollars (mdd), on average, per year, revealed the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) , which detailed that in the countries of the region the industry received only 3% of the total of these investments last year.

According to the Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 report , prepared by the aforementioned organization, investment announcements in the logistics sector in Mexico averaged close to two billion dollars per year from 2010 to 2019.

At the report’s presentation, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, Executive Secretary of ECLAC, emphasized that Mexico has a positive investment environment, as well as clusters for economic development and a strong logistics chain.

In this regard, he emphasized that the country is best positioned to attract FDI in Latin America and the Caribbean within the framework of the phenomenon of relocation of production lines, known as nearshoring .

According to the report, Mexico received the second-largest amount of FDI in the region in 2024, with net inflows of $45.337 billion, representing a 48% increase compared to 2023 and the highest annual figure since 2013.

José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs noted that the integration of the Mexican economy with that of the United States under the context of nearshoring could pose risks, especially due to the recent economic policies promoted by its northern neighbor. However, there is also “a great deal of common interest between the two countries.”

In terms of sectors, manufacturing was the largest net driver of FDI in Mexico, experiencing a 10% increase in inflows compared to 2023 and also accounting for 53% of the 2024 total.

For his part, Marco Llinás, director of ECLAC’s Productive and Business Development Division, believes that FDI in Mexico will increase as the country improves its efforts to attract foreign capital through Plan Mexico , especially given the economic uncertainty affecting the world due to protectionist policies.

According to the ECLAC report, FDI in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024 reached 188.962 billion dollars (mdd) , which represented an increase of 7.1% compared to 2023.

The 2024 growth in FDI components was driven by transnational corporations already operating in the region, mainly due to increases in profit reinvestment, while capital inflows remain stagnant.

In 2024, FDI inflows increased in the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico, while results in South American countries were mixed. Brazil saw a 13.8% increase in FDI inflows, while Mexico saw a 47.9% increase in the period.

“At ECLAC, we believe that Latin America and the Caribbean must leverage foreign direct investment to achieve more productive, inclusive, and sustainable development. To achieve this, it will be key to use FDI as a strategic tool within productive development policies,” emphasized José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs.

According to the report, during the reference period, there was an increase in FDI inflows to manufacturing and a decrease in the services sector, with the share of FDI in both sectors remaining similar, at 43.6% and 40.4%, respectively.

The analysis indicated that the United States consolidated its position as the largest investor in Latin America and the Caribbean, with 38% of the value invested in 2024, and the European Union’s share fell to 15% of the regional total, representing the lowest figure since 2012. Meanwhile, FDI from China accounted for just 2% of total inflows in 2024.

Meanwhile, regarding the behavior of Latin American transnational corporations, known as translatinas, the report showed that outward FDI from the region increased 47% last year, reaching $53.033 billion . Brazil was the largest investor abroad, accounting for 46% of the total, while investments from Mexico showed the greatest growth.

The report also highlighted FDI in the mining sector. Between 2005 and 2024, 1,152 project announcements were made, totaling US$230,065 million.

Furthermore, the analysis highlighted that while there has been progress in digitalization in Latin America and the Caribbean, significant gaps in technological adoption persist .

Mexico and Brazil accounted for 32% and 29%, respectively, of the FDI associated with project announcements accumulated between 2005 and 2024. When Argentina, Chile, and Colombia are added, this group of countries accounts for more than 80% of the total in the region.

It is worth remembering that during the first quarter of 2025, Mexico reached  21.4 billion dollars (mdd) in Foreign Direct Investment , which meant an increase of  5.4% compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Ministry of Economy .

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El cargo FDI in logistics in Latin America represents only 3% of the total received in 2024 apareció primero en T21.