Investment expectations in Mexico have not changed after the presentation of the Mexico Plan , stated Paulina Anciola, Deputy Director of Economic Studies at Banamex , considering that the strategy has not yet shown concrete results to trigger new productive projects .
The specialist explained that Banamex kept its economic projections for the country unchanged and currently forecasts a growth of 1.3% for 2026, above the consensus of analysts of 1.1% and the estimate of 0.8% from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) .
“When the Mexico Plan came out, everyone was asking us: ‘Are you finally going to change your growth forecasts?’ The truth is, we didn’t make any changes,” he asserted.
Anciola pointed out that, although the strategy sets ambitious goals to boost investment and economic growth, there are still doubts about how they will be implemented and evaluated.
“We think that much of it remained just a very nice plan, with many good ideas and many metrics that would be good to achieve, but then it wasn’t followed up on. They didn’t explain how these goals are going to be met, how they are going to be implemented, or what indicators are going to be used to evaluate progress,” he commented.
The economist considered that one of the main obstacles to attracting capital continues to be the uncertainty perceived by investors in both the national and international environment.
“On the one hand they are telling you: ‘We have the Mexico Plan, we want to boost investment,’ but at the same time they have made a series of reforms that only increase regulatory uncertainty,” he stressed.
In his opinion, this situation has led many companies to adopt a cautious stance while they observe the evolution of the reforms and the economic environment.
“What we have seen in recent years is that investors seem to be in wait-and-see mode, waiting a bit to see how the reforms turn out,” he said.
He also emphasized that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) announcements should be analyzed in greater detail. Although the overall figure was positive last year, Banamex observed a decline in FDI during the fourth quarter.
Furthermore, he explained that a large part of the reported resources correspond to reinvestment of profits from companies that already operate in Mexico and not necessarily to the arrival of new productive projects .
“When you break down the data, there are no new investments. Virtually all foreign investment is from the large companies that are already here,” he stated.
According to Anciola, as long as a new wave of investment is not observed and uncertainty persists, it will be difficult for Mexico to fully take advantage of the opportunities associated with the relocation of production chains.
“Until we see a wave of new investments, I don’t think we can say that it’s materializing,” he concluded, referring to nearshoring .
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