Despite the complex trade and political environment in the United States, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remains in effect and guarantees at least 10 years of stability for North American integration. However, the main challenge will be reducing the uncertainty generated by tariffs and preventing new unilateral measures from hindering investment, according to specialists from the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (COMCE) .
During a press conference, Sergio Contreras Pérez, executive president of Comce, highlighted the importance that the Mexican export sector has acquired , estimating that this year the country will reach exports of around 730 billion dollars (mdd) , of which 92% will correspond to manufactured goods , reflecting the consolidation of the national industrial base.
“Exporting doesn’t just mean selling abroad; it involves meeting the standards of quality, innovation, logistics, and delivery times that distinguish Mexico in international markets today,” he stated.
Antonio Ortiz Mena, president of the T-MEC Technical Strategy Committee of Comce, pointed out that the permanence of the treaty until at least 2036 represents a scenario of “realistic certainty” , in an international context marked by geopolitical, technological and commercial changes.
He explained that, although an automatic renewal for 16 years would have been desirable, the new review mechanism allows for constant dialogue between the three countries and preserves the validity of the agreement.
“The key is to reduce uncertainty about unilateral actions by the United States. Companies need clear rules to be able to plan and invest,” he stressed.
For his part, Kenneth Smith, president of the Mexico-United States Bilateral Business Committee of the Comce, stated that the chances of the United States abandoning the USMCA are “virtually nil” , despite the rhetoric of President Donald Trump.
However, he warned that the real risk to regional competitiveness lies in the continuation of tariffs and the possibility that Washington will impose new tariffs under arguments of national security.
“The priority is to reach an agreement that eliminates or minimizes current tariffs and avoids further surprises for businesses,” he said.
Smith explained that the annual reviews stipulated in the treaty mechanism do not mean that the USMCA must be renegotiated every year. Once the three countries agree on the recommendations to improve its operation, the treaty can be automatically extended for another 16 years.
He also called for avoiding hasty concessions during the review and ensuring that the changes do not alter the structure of the trade agreement or affect its balance.
China will be the “fourth participant” in the review
One of the central themes of the review will be the trade relationship with China.
Smith acknowledged that the Asian country will, in effect, be “the fourth participant” in the negotiations, due to the United States’ interest in reducing its dependence on Chinese suppliers and strengthening regional supply chains.
However, he warned that North America cannot completely close itself off to Asian trade .
“We need to identify which production processes can be moved to the region and which, for economic reasons, will continue to be carried out in Asia. We cannot build a fortress isolated from the rest of the world,” he emphasized.
Diversification with Canada
Armando Ortega, president of the Mexico-Canada Bilateral Business Committee of Comce, highlighted that both countries share the challenge of reducing their dependence on the US market through greater trade diversification.
In that regard, he emphasized the importance of the Mexico-Canada Action Plan 2025-2028 , which seeks to increase trade and investment in sectors such as advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, connectivity, rail infrastructure, labor mobility, and critical minerals.
He also proposed strengthening the traceability of supply chains through technological tools, such as blockchain , to guarantee the origin of products and provide greater transparency to regional trade.
The representatives of Comce agreed that investment behavior will depend, to a large extent, on the ability of the three governments to reduce regulatory and tariff uncertainty .
Although they noted that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has remained stable, they acknowledged that Mexico still has room to attract greater flows if it strengthens its business environment and provides greater legal certainty.
Finally, the organization reiterated that the objective of the USMCA review should be to strengthen North American economic integration without affecting regional competitiveness , preserving free trade and avoiding new barriers that limit the growth of shared supply chains.
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