The drop in the price of some agricultural products, such as tomatoes, essential in the Mexican diet, influenced the slowdown in inflation in the first half of July 2026, which stood at 3.10% at an annual rate ; however, the cost of air transport continues to put pressure on the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .
“The year-on-year variation slowed down for seven consecutive fortnights, reaching its lowest point since the end of 2020,” explained Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) in an analysis.
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported that the core inflation index —which excludes goods and services with high volatility or whose prices do not respond to market conditions— rose 0.16% on a bi-weekly basis . Within this index, merchandise prices increased 0.11% and service prices rose 0.20%.
“The core index accelerated slightly and remains close to 4 percent. Within that index, the merchandise sector rebounded from its lows of April last year,” BX+ noted.
Meanwhile, the non-core price index —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations— fell 0.23% on a bi-weekly basis . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices dropped 1.50% , while energy and regulated tariff prices rose 0.03%.
The products with the largest price increases in the first half of July were air transportation (12.44%) and package tour services (6.22%), increases associated with the World Cup. Other products with price hikes during this period included oranges (6.02%), computers (4.52%), and potatoes and other tubers (1.39%).
Meanwhile, the products with the greatest price decrease during the cycle were tomatoes with 13.18%, serrano peppers with a decrease of 5.17%, tomatillos with 3.24%, avocados with a drop of 2.59%, and LP domestic gas with 0.50% every two weeks.
According to BX+, the decline in the bi-weekly variation “was due to a further drop in agricultural products , mainly fruits and vegetables, within the non-core index. The variation in the core index was marginally higher than in the same period last year. Within this index, the increase in air transport and tour package prices stood out.”
Despite recent favorable readings, Grupo Financiero Ve por Más indicated that the inflationary outlook is still challenging , and therefore estimated that inflation will begin to rebound next month, “instead of continuing to move towards the Bank of Mexico ’s 3% target .”
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