Due to an advance in tertiary activities such as trade, and transport and storage, Mexico’s economic activity would have rebounded at an annual rate in March 2026, although it would have stagnated in its monthly measurement.
The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) , compiled by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated a slight increase of 0.5% in Mexican economic activity in the third month of this year compared to March 2025. On a monthly basis, the IOAE remained unchanged.
By economic activity groups, an annual increase of 1.1% is expected in the tertiary sector (which includes services such as commerce, transport and storage, communications, education and health), and a decrease of 0.5% in the secondary sector (manufacturing and construction industry).
The estimates include 95% confidence intervals and correspond to seasonally adjusted figures, Inegi indicated.
On a monthly basis, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) is expected to show no change. A 0.1% increase is projected for secondary activities and a 0.1% decrease for tertiary activities by March 2026.
Although the Mexican economy is beginning to show signs of recovery, industry analysts estimate a still cautious outlook for 2026.
In that regard, BBVA Research projected a slight advance for the Mexican economy this year, derived from various factors such as an improvement in consumption and investment.
“We have revised our GDP growth forecast for 2026 upwards to 1.8% (from 1.2% previously), given the resilience of consumption and the recovery of investment. After a weak 2025, formal employment is beginning to improve,” he stated.
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