The Mexican economy could grow by 1.5% in 2026 , the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimated , due to tensions in the global environment and the application of current restrictive financial conditions.
This projection represents an increase if one considers that the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 was 0.8% compared to 2024, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .
In its report, ECLAC adjusted its regional growth projection to 2.2% for 2026 , a decrease from the 2.3% estimated by the organization in December of last year. The report indicated that the contraction reflects current global tensions, such as the conflict in the Middle East and tariff policies.
“The deterioration of the external environment is one of the main factors behind the downward revision of regional growth projections,” he said.
According to the organization’s data, growth is projected to slow in 24 of the region’s 33 countries in 2026, while only seven are expected to show an increase. This would mark four consecutive years of projected growth close to 2.3% for the region, “demonstrating a pattern of weak growth potential.”
At the subregional level, South America would grow 2.4% in 2026 , below the 2.9% achieved in 2025, “reflecting a slowdown in most of the economies of the subregion,” according to the most recent projections of ECLAC.
Central America is projected to grow its economy by 2.2% this year , a slight contraction compared to the 2.3% growth forecast for 2025, influenced by anticipated contractions in Cuba and Haiti. The English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean is projected to grow by 5.6% , a slight increase from the 5.5% forecast for 2025, driven by projected economic activity in Guyana.
The conflict in the Middle East and geopolitical tensions increased volatility in commodity and financial markets. The price of oil during the first three weeks of April exceeded the average price recorded in December 2015 by 74% , raising production and transportation costs globally, according to the technical report.
ECLAC noted that the World Trade Organization (WTO) projected a 2.7% increase in the volume of trade in goods and services in 2026. This figure contrasts with the 4.7% growth achieved in 2025, indicating a slowdown in the dynamism of global international trade. Meanwhile, central banks are maintaining cautious stances in the face of renewed pressure on consumer price indices.
Regional private consumption is showing less dynamism, while investment is showing signs of a recovery, albeit at moderate levels. Employment growth in the region’s economies is estimated at 1.1% in 2026, compared to 1.5% in 2025 .
Meanwhile, median inflation would be above 3%, due to the rise in imported inputs and logistics expenses, compared to 2.4% last year.
According to the United Nations regional economic commission, risks persist linked to the volatility of international markets and the weakness of domestic demand in countries; in addition to structural factors and constraints of space in public policies that affect the performance in various economies of the region analyzed.
Given this scenario, ECLAC emphasized the need to expand the mobilization of internal and external resources , and to strengthen governance to promote policies that boost investment, increase productivity and strengthen macroeconomic resilience, in a global environment where uncertainty prevails.
Comment and follow us on LinkedIn: @GrupoT21
