Global trade is undergoing a transformation due to the growing demand for essential minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earth elements, which are fundamental to clean energy technologies, electrification, digitalization and the energy transition , warned the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .
According to the latest World Trade Update , the international organization indicated that demand for lithium is expected to increase by 353% between 2024 and 2040, while demand for graphite is expected to rise by 131%.
“Clean technologies are expected to account for a larger share of demand. Their share of lithium demand is projected to increase from 62% in 2024 to 87% in 2040,” he stated.
The report stressed the need to diversify supply sources , improve market transparency and strengthen international cooperation, which could contribute to open, stable, secure, transparent, rules-based and sustainable trade.
UNCTAD specified that the supply of essential minerals for the energy transition is concentrated in reserves, mining, processing and refining.
“This concentration is especially acute in processing and refining, where the highest value activities take place,” he pointed out.
In that regard, he noted that in 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo accounted for 74% of global cobalt production, Indonesia for 67% of nickel, and China for 69% of rare earth elements, reflecting the concentration of critical mineral supply in just a few countries.
“Diversifying processing capacity, promoting recycling, and strengthening national value chains will take time. It will also require long-term investment and coordinated political support,” the analysis emphasized.
He added that governments are increasingly turning to trade policy to secure access to critical minerals, strengthen industrial competitiveness, and build more resilient supply chains.
“Since 2020, nearly 100 new export measures have been introduced on minerals essential for the energy transition, including 37 licensing requirements, 31 export taxes, 29 export bans, and one export quota. The Democratic Republic of Congo has introduced the largest number of measures, followed by China and Indonesia,” he noted.
The study analyzed 73 collaboration agreements, 58 of which were signed since 2022. These agreements are helping to reshape supply chains by combining trade, industrial, and investment policy instruments.
Agreements involving developing countries tend to focus more on extraction, with fewer provisions to support value addition.
UNCTAD considered that trade in critical minerals is at a crossroads, as it can either boost export earnings, investment and structural transformation in developing countries, or it can reinforce extractive models and fragment markets into rival blocs.
In response, the organization indicated that greater international cooperation and political coherence are essential.
“Trade policy must support both the development needs of developing countries rich in critical minerals and the global transition to a digital and low-carbon economy,” he said.
The report comes in a context where the United States has imposed export restrictions on semiconductor technology to China, where the Asian country has responded with export controls on graphite, gallium and germanium.
Meanwhile, Mexico and the United States established a joint action plan on critical minerals with the aim of ensuring the supply of essential inputs for various key sectors of industry.
The plan includes regulations for the extraction, processing, and trade of these minerals. It also outlines technical and regulatory cooperation , as well as research and development of new technologies in this area, among other aspects.
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