After reaching record highs in June, ocean freight rates between Asia, Mexico, and the West Coast of South America (WCSA) began to ease in July due to increased space availability; however, this respite may be short-lived. The combination of peak season, potential weather disruptions in Asia, and service instability threatens to push rates higher again in August.
The EAX index, compiled by Eternity Group Mexico , stood at $5,284 per 40-foot container (FEU) during July 2026, a contraction of 7.85% compared to the previous month, after the market reached a high of $6,500 per FEU in June.
The correction was mainly related to the return of capacity to the corridor. In the first two weeks of July alone, space equivalent to just over 57,000 TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) was added , expanding the available supply and creating conditions for rates to begin falling after the previous surge.
This move represents a new shift for a market that, in recent months, has shown a high sensitivity to supply and demand imbalances. Space availability has thus become one of the main factors behind fare fluctuations, particularly for services connecting Asia with Mexico and South America.
Capacity expansion is not limited to this corridor. Globally, deliveries of new container ships continued, adding 118,747 TEUs to the world fleet during the period analyzed.
CMA CGM once again led the way in adding capacity, incorporating two new vessels that represented an additional 26,612 TEUs . The arrival of these new ships keeps open the possibility of a greater overall supply, although its effect on freight rates will depend on how shipping lines distribute that capacity among the different trade routes.
While increased supply helped to cool prices during July, Eternity Group Mexico warns that operating conditions could change again in the coming weeks. Weather is now emerging as one of the main risk factors for supply chains that rely on shipments from Asia.
The report indicates that the El Niño phenomenon is generating an atypical risk of typhoons and adverse weather conditions on the Asian coasts, just as international maritime transport enters its peak season .
The impacts could extend beyond temporary port closures or itinerary changes. The accumulation of delays could alter vessel departures , temporarily reduce available space, and shift disruptions to the destination ports.
“Our analysis team estimates that the impact of these weather disruptions could cause operational delays of between seven and 20 days,” the report warns.
This scenario is especially relevant for Mexican supply chains that depend on components, raw materials or goods from Asia, because greater variability in transit times can compromise inventories and production schedules even when there is sufficient nominal capacity in the market.
The pressure could shift back to higher prices. Eternity Group Mexico believes that the combination of typhoons, peak season , and service instability creates conditions for another surge in freight rates during August.
“We project a high probability that, by the end of August, short -term rates will climb again to levels between seven thousand and seven thousand five hundred dollars per container,” the analysis anticipates.
Should this scenario materialize, the decline observed in July would have been more of a temporary correction than the start of a sustained downward trend. The market would even rebound above the peak of approximately $6,500 per FEU seen in June.
Given the possibility of further disruptions, the report suggests avoiding strategies based solely on waiting for lower rates when dealing with goods critical to production lines or business cycles. In a highly volatile environment, transportation costs are no longer the only factor; the actual availability of space and the reliability of routes become more important.
Advance planning thus returns to the heart of logistics strategy. Eternity recommends preparing shipments three to four weeks in advance to ensure capacity and reduce exposure to sudden market changes.
In addition, there is the need to maintain accuracy in the Cargo Ready Date (CRD) , that is, the date on which the goods will actually be ready for shipment. Last-minute changes can lead to the loss of reserved space or a rollover , moving the container to a later departure and further extending arrival times.
East Coast without major movements
Meanwhile, on the East Coast of South America (ECSA) , the price correction has been considerably smaller. The EAX index closed July at $7,146 per FEU , just 1.15% lower than the previous month.
Although more capacity was also added to this corridor, the market has not reacted as quickly as the route to Mexico and the South American west coast. The main obstacle is the backlog , or volume of cargo left over from the capacity cuts previously implemented by shipping lines.
As long as that backordered inventory continues to absorb the additional space, the possibility of a deeper reduction in freight rates to the ECSA will remain limited.
July thus left a maritime market with seemingly contradictory signals: increased global capacity and tariff adjustments in some corridors, but at the same time, growing exposure to operational disruptions. For importers, the challenge in the coming weeks will not only be the cost of moving a container from Asia, but also ensuring available space and that goods arrive within the supply chain’s timeframe.
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