Lower investment, weak production, and declining employment weakened the pace of growth in Mexico’s economy during 2025, which is estimated to have expanded by only 0.5%, a figure lower than the average annual growth of the last seven years (0.7%), according to the Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector (CEESP) .
The organization, which is part of the Business Coordinating Council (CCE) , indicated that the drop in investment in the country reflects the decisions made by business owners in an environment of high uncertainty, stemming from issues such as insecurity and high labor costs, which mainly affected micro and small businesses.
This has led to a decrease in the number of formal businesses in Mexico . According to the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) , the number of employers fell by 25,667 in 2025, and another 17,911 were lost in 2024, bringing the total number of formal employers that closed in these last two years to 43,578.
The analysis detailed that in the country there are more informal workers who do not pay direct taxes, nor do they have social security.
“An economy with these levels of informality undoubtedly becomes less productive and competitive and offers less well-being and fewer job opportunities to the population,” he stressed.
According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , informal workers in December 2025 totaled 33 million, while the rate of informal employment was established at 54.6%, a percentage higher than the 53.7% of the last month of 2024.
In addition to the above, the CEESP explained, there is the deterioration of the perception on issues such as the rule of law, corruption and insecurity, factors that affect the decision to invest and contribute to a slower growth rate.
According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , the Mexican economy could grow 1.5% this year and 2.1% in 2027 , due to global trade and geopolitical tensions, which will continue to affect various financial markets around the world.
Regarding public finances, the study noted that, although the authorities’ efforts to reduce the high deficit are appreciated, the growing spending on public commitments and the increase in the level of indebtedness have limited the achievement of this objective.
“By 2026, it is anticipated that the historical balance of the public sector’s financial requirements (SHRFSP), which is the largest debt item, will rise by 1.3 trillion pesos, causing its financial cost to be a similar amount, equivalent to 4.1% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), when in 2024 it represented only 3.4%,” he emphasized.
He considered inflationary pressure to be another problem that the Mexican economy will face this year, which started at a rapid pace.
According to Inegi, in the first half of January 2026, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) , which measures the variation in prices of a basket of goods and services, stood at 3.77% annually , which meant an increase of 0.31% compared to the previous half-month.
This increase was driven by a 4.47% year-on-year rise in the core price index, which excludes goods and services with more volatile prices or that do not respond to market conditions.
Given the economic challenges anticipated for this year, the CEESP believes that a better business environment should be promoted in Mexico.
“Strengthening the rule of law, reducing insecurity, and promoting a more business-friendly environment will be key factors in stimulating a faster pace of growth and well-being,” the analysis concluded.
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