The US military action in Venezuela on January 3, which led to the arrest of Nicolás Maduro, then acting president of that South American country, points to a reconfiguration in the global energy landscape—in which Mexico would be affected—that could cause an increase in fuel prices, as well as minimal risks of logistical disruptions.
Marcial Díaz Ibarra, managing partner of QUA Energy Consultores , indicated that the implications for Mexico in the face of a possible reorganization in the global oil market would include bullish scenarios that would put pressure on fuel import costs .
He also estimated that increased volatility would impact the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) and stimulus policies. Furthermore, he noted that a reconfiguration of heavy crude oil flows in the Gulf of Mexico market would affect Maya crude price differentials . Regarding foreign policy, he emphasized in an interview with T21 that there would be pressure to balance principles of non-intervention with economic and regional realities.
“The transition in Venezuela should be understood as a structural, not a temporary, event. For Mexico, the main risk is not Venezuela itself, but the volatility of the international oil market and its transmission to prices, inflation, and public finances,” he pointed out.
Regarding the repercussions on the global oil market, Díaz identified three possible scenarios, the first being an orderly transition and relief of the sanctions imposed on Venezuela by the United States, which would have a “moderate bearish impact on prices”.
The second scenario would be a decline with internal friction , the impact of which would point to an upward trend in the short term. The third scenario, according to the specialist, would lead to a military escalation or sustained blockade , with a “strong and highly volatile upward” impact.
According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) , Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. In 2024 alone, this South American country had more than 303 billion barrels of proven reserves , representing 17% of the global total.
Despite this potential, the nation has a deteriorating infrastructure, “a high dependence on diluents, and severe financial constraints. Venezuela’s strategic value lies not in what it produces today, but in what it could produce under an environment of stability, investment, and normalized trade,” Díaz Ibarra emphasized.
According to the energy expert, Venezuela is currently a marginal player in terms of supply, but central in terms of expectations , so any sign of political transition or adjustment in the sanctions regime has the capacity to move prices, risk premiums and investment decisions on a global scale.
“The departure of the Nicolás Maduro regime constitutes a high-impact geopolitical event, not because of the immediate volume of Venezuelan oil production —currently close to 1% of the world supply— but because of its structural potential, its strategic reserves and its role in the energy dispute between the United States, China and Russia,” he added.
Marcial Díaz noted that China is the main buyer of Venezuelan oil (between 70% and 80% of exports go to that Asian country) through debt financing and indirect marketing arrangements. Meanwhile, the United States acquires limited volumes through specific licenses (mainly Chevron ), while Venezuela makes marginal shipments to Cuba for political purposes.
The Gulf of Mexico and its possibilities
Alejandro Montufar, CEO of PETROIntelligence , believes that the conflict in Venezuela and the subsequent US intervention are generating initial uncertainty in the markets , but with minimal impact on crude oil production and exports. According to Montufar, the region most dependent on Venezuelan crude is the US Gulf of Mexico, whose refineries are designed to process it, and therefore would be the biggest beneficiary.
“These complexes could face adjustments in their refining margins and logistics costs if the flow is interrupted; however, with the takeover by the United States, it is safe to say that the flow will surely increase and this region will be the most benefited by ensuring a direct and stable supply that reduces its dependence on other heavier, more expensive or distant crudes,” he noted.
For Mexico, he stressed, this would represent a positive effect on gasoline and diesel import prices, strengthening the 24 pesos per liter agreement and even opening the possibility of additional reductions.
He added that the upward effect on prices will be temporary, while the stabilizing and downward impact is projected to be lasting in the medium and long term. Once operational control is consolidated in Venezuela, the market could operate under a logic of “abundant supply,” maintaining moderate prices during 2026 and early 2027. Furthermore, he pointed out that external factors such as tensions in the Middle East or international sanctions could influence the evolution of global energy prices.
Patience and opportunities
For his part, Roberto Díaz de León, a specialist in fuel issues, agreed that the situation will generate greater fragility in oil exports, with risks of logistical disruptions and an increase in the perception of risk by buyers and insurers , “it is not as if the supply is collapsing, but rather it deepens the vulnerability that the market already knows or recognizes.”
He indicated that in Mexico the pressures could only be reflected in derivatives such as gasoline and diesel, where volatility is usually amplified by additional factors such as refining margins, inventories and logistics routes.
“In Mexico, there may be some additional pressure on certain prices from large wholesalers while inventories are being adjusted. But I think it will be insignificant,” he stated.
Although he pointed out that the vulnerability mainly affects Caribbean countries and Asian markets dependent on Venezuelan crude, in the Mexican case he considered that “there will not be any impact, much less on logistical issues.”
The real challenge lies in the political and economic stability of Venezuela, as this will determine the appetite of international companies to invest in its energy market , emphasized Díaz de León, who specified that “we will have to be very patient to try to identify what the new conditions will be.”
He also noted that other producers such as Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Brazil have the capacity to compensate for the Venezuelan decline, although not immediately or in a price-neutral way, and that “the risk inevitably ends up in costs, investment decisions, and the final consumer,” insisting on the need for patience and prudence in the face of the volatility generated by the conflict .
“I insist that we must be very prudent, we must be very patient. I am convinced that when these situations occur, they bring more opportunities than risks. And we will have to be very attentive to see what opportunities international companies identify,” he concluded.
Given this scenario, Mexico and Latin America will have to face a new challenge, which is adapting to an energy context that is once again being reorganized, as well as to increasingly changing geopolitical movements.
Main image taken from the Instagram account of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) .
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