The Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce) presented its vision on the economic and trade landscape that Mexico will face in 2026, a year marked by the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , the advance of nearshoring (relocation of production lines) and the recomposition of global value chains
During the meeting, Susana Duque, general director of Comce, highlighted that the country is closing the year with solid economic foundations that support its strategic role in global trade.
“Mexico is today the 13th largest economy in the world, the tenth largest exporter and importer, and a country where 90% of exports come from manufactured goods,” he highlighted.
That industrial strength, he said, has allowed the country to consolidate its position as the main trading partner of the United States and as a relevant destination for new investments.
Duque recalled that Mexico recently reached a record for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) , with 40.906 billion dollars (USD), a figure that reinforces global confidence in the country and stressed that in 2025 there was growing interest in productive integration, energy transition, digitalization of trade and relocation of operations, factors that will continue to shape the economic agenda for next year.
For his part, Sergio Contreras, executive president of Comce, presented the macroeconomic projections for 2026.
For next year, the agency anticipated a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.29% , while inflation was expected to be around 3.9%, after a decline compared to 2024.
Regarding exports, Comce estimated a close of 660 billion dollars for 2025 and a projection of 700 billion dollars for 2026, despite a global environment that could slow down.
Contreras pointed out that Mexico is maintaining a steady progress that could even raise it from the tenth to the ninth largest exporter in the world.
Contreras emphasized that the country remains the fifth largest recipient of FDI globally, according to international estimates. The United States contributes approximately 40% of these flows, followed by Spain, Japan, the Netherlands, and Canada.
By 2026, Comce projected between $40 billion and $45 billion in FDI, driven by global industrial repositioning, the relocation of companies ( nearshoring and friendshoring ), the broad Mexican manufacturing base , and the possibility of co-investments between Mexican and international firms.
The manufacturing sector accounts for 37% of recent FDI, followed by financial services, trade, transport and construction.
Contreras highlighted that Mexico’s manufacturing structure, supported by a highly skilled workforce, particularly in STEM areas (science , technology, engineering and mathematics ) , continues to be the pillar of foreign trade.
Sectors such as automotive, electrical-electronic, machinery, medical devices and digital technologies will continue to lead export flows.
Among the factors with the greatest potential for 2026, Comce identified nearshoring and international co-investment, given the reconfiguration of tariffs and global chains; the energy transition, which will attract new megaprojects; regional value chains, especially in North America; as well as diversification towards the European Union (EU), with the modernization of the EU-Mexico trade agreement.
In the automotive sector, he emphasized that 42% of the US industry depends on Mexican auto parts and manufacturing , evidence of a deep integration that will be a determining factor in the review of the USMCA.
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