The revision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , scheduled for July 2026, is expected to have difficult moments that could change the course of regional integration and further radicalize the rules of international trade, with serious impacts for Mexico, which were not addressed in President Claudia Sheinbaum’s First State of the Union address .
According to the document, from October to December 2024, total trade in goods between Mexico and the United States was $196.334 billion , an increase of 4.8% compared to the same period in 2023; while trade with Canada was $8.335 billion, 1.3% higher than the same period in 2023.
These figures would reflect a good relationship and understanding between the countries that make up the trilateral trade agreement, but the reality is different.
Following Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20, a new era also began in trade relations between the three countries, marked by uncertainty and constant threats of imposing tariffs left and right on their regional partners, but also on the rest of the world.
In February 2025, Trump ordered 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for failing to “curb drug trafficking and illegal immigration to the United States,” angering Canada, which also responded with tariffs against the United States. Mexico has been more measured in its decisions.
The First Government Report indicates that from October 2024 to June 2025 alone, trade in goods between Mexico and its northern neighbor totaled $640.078 billion, based on factors such as the implementation and strengthening of the USMCA, “Mexico’s macroeconomic stability, and institutional cooperation between both nations to resolve trade issues through existing collaboration mechanisms.”
Despite the positive figures generated by the USMCA, and the White House itself has acknowledged that it has been “very effective,” it has also accused its partners of “not respecting it,” issuing a warning: the agreement will soon be renegotiated to “adjust or terminate” it, which would change the rules of regional trade and also impact the logistics sector and supply chains .
Carlos Martner , coordinator of Integrated Transportation and Logistics at the Mexican Institute of Transportation (IMT) , considered that if the 30% tariffs had gone into effect on August 1, there would probably be a rearrangement of supply chains , as exports would decrease as a result of the imposition of this tax.
He explained that the tax would only apply to exports outside the USMCA and that approximately “84% of exports to the United States are subject to zero tariffs, which are part of those covered by the trade agreement.”
Although the USMCA has served as a protective mechanism against threats and impositions of tariffs on Mexico, such as the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, and the 25% tariff on vehicles, Trump has maintained his warning.
“Mexico has maintained a strategic interest in strengthening the three countries’ work on the USMCA. However, changes in the administrations of the United States and, more recently, Canada, have impacted the dynamics of the work within the treaty’s committees and working groups,” the report noted.
The document added that Mexico has consolidated its position as the United States’ largest trading partner, surpassing Canada and China.
“This reflects the strength of the bilateral economic relationship and Mexico’s strategic role in regional supply chains.”
Given this, the question is: will Mexico be able to successfully complete the negotiations in the next revision of the USMCA despite Trump’s constant threats? We will have to wait until July 2026 or sooner. For now, the First State of the Union address offers a positive outlook, even if uncertainty persists.
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