Growth prospects for the Mexican economy are “not very encouraging” and are being complicated by the challenges of judicial reform and trade policies promoted by the United States, which has increased the perception of a weakening of Mexico’s productive activity, warned the Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector (CEESP) .
The organization, which reports to the Business Coordinating Council (CCE) , noted that “a modest improvement in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for this year is evident, but this does not imply a significant increase in the country’s productive activity.”
“The most recent survey of private sector specialists’ expectations published by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) shows a modest improvement in the GDP growth forecast for this year, revised from 0.08% to 0.13%. However, this does not imply a significant increase in productive activity,” he emphasized.
According to the analysis, following the increase in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) , specialists revised their inflation estimate upwards for the third consecutive month.
“Both the forecast for headline and core inflation this year is 4.07%, the first time it has been above Banxico’s target range of 3% +/- 1 percentage point,” he stated.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , inflation in the first half of June 2025 stood at 4.51% at an annual rate , which has impacted the pockets of Mexicans due to an increase in the prices of goods, services and consumer products.
The study indicated that inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 are improving slightly, with increases of 3.75% and 3.70%, respectively, expected.
Another factor that is causing concern among specialists is the perception of the economic environment , which remains in “negative territory.”
“Ninety-five percent of respondents believe the economy is currently worse than it was a year ago. 86% indicate that the business climate will remain the same or worsen over the next six months, while 73% believe the current situation is a bad time to invest,” the study stated.
Crime, lack of rule of law, and corruption are the main obstacles to doing business in Mexico, according to 67% of the experts surveyed.
CEESP emphasized that one of the current concerns in the economic environment is the policies promoted by Donald Trump , President of the United States, which “do not prioritize global cooperation in any way. The uncertainty generated by this environment could become a significant constraint on growth.”
In June, the consumer confidence indicator showed a monthly decline of 1.1 points, after having increased in May; meanwhile, in the sixth month of the year, the manufacturing industry confidence indicator saw a monthly decline of 0.2 points.
According to CEESP, these declines, among other factors, signal a weakening economy that shows no significant growth in the short term.
Along these lines, the financial institution Banamex stated that “it is possible that the economic stagnation will continue,” and predicted zero growth for the country this year.
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