Mexican consumers started the year cautiously regarding the purchase of goods and services, as the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) showed no growth in January 2025 compared to December 2024, while in February it forecasts a monthly decline of 0.1 percent .
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , at an annual rate, this indicator anticipated an increase of 0.8% in January, while a decrease of 1.7 percent is estimated for February .
According to the agency’s data, private consumption performance is expected to have weakened at the beginning of 2025, as this occurred amidst a context of inflation, which reached 3.77% annually in February, after reaching 3.59% annually in January.
According to the financial institution Banamex , inflation in the country has been declining since the second half of last year, although it forecast that it could reach 3.8 percent by the end of this year .
The same institution estimated that the 25% tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump for Mexico, which are currently on hold for products included in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) until April 2, would be inflationary , which would affect domestic consumption.
Furthermore, according to projections from Fitch Ratings and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , Mexico could enter a recession due to the 25% tariffs Trump is seeking to impose on various Mexican products.
INEGI noted that the IOCP presents an advance estimate of the Monthly Private Consumption Indicator (IMCP) , and its purpose is to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption in Mexico.
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