Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Ministry of Economy (SE) , reported that after a virtual meeting with Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative (USTR) ; and Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s Minister of Trade, the United States opted to conduct annual reviews of the USMCA .
With this position from the United States, the extension of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for another 16 years is ruled out , so the trade agreement will be reviewed annually for the next 10 years (until 2036), which will generate uncertainty for companies that produce goods in the North American region, as well as in the country’s logistics sector.
Ebrard added that another conversation with his North American counterpart will take place on July 20 in Mexico, and will be a formal review of the USMCA, with the aim of making progress on pending issues.
“There we will have the opportunity to move forward so that the review, now foreseen by the treaty that begins today, can practically be carried out and we can conclude it within a reasonable timeframe,” the Mexican official explained in a video on his social media.
Later, in a press conference, he ruled out any intention on the part of the three countries to abandon the treaty , although he said that the United States has around 14 concerns, including the loss of jobs in some manufacturing sectors and the trade deficit it has with other countries.
According to figures from the US Census Bureau , the northern neighbor recorded a trade deficit with Mexico of 15,348.5 million dollars (USD) in April 2026.
Ebrard Casaubon reiterated that despite the United States’ position, the parties retain the possibility of agreeing to an extension at any time during the next decade, and insisted that this decision will not have immediate effects on regional trade , since “the treaty will continue to function as currently planned. There would be no modifications.”
He emphasized that Mexico has the highest and most complex rules of origin in the world . “No competitor has to have 75% regional integration. None. In fact, it’s one of Mexico’s strongest arguments. How is it possible that South Korea, Japan, the European Union, and several other countries have 15 rules without any? And we have 25 more rules. So, clearly, that’s one of the major issues to resolve.”
He also ruled out any impact on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico. “I don’t think it will suffer such an unexpected change. They’ve already factored it in. I continue to receive information from companies about investments; some I can’t announce now, but based on the indicators I saw today, the market already knew this would happen.”
Despite what Ebrard said, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) indicated that FDI attracted by Mexico in 2025 fell 5% annually, and that announcements of new projects plummeted 43% compared to 2024.
It is worth remembering that Article 34.7 of the USMCA establishes that the first joint review will be carried out on July 1, 2026, for the purpose of evaluating the functioning of this agreement, formulating recommendations and, if necessary, adopting pertinent measures.
Impact on road transport and the logistics sector
The uncertainty generated by the new provisions of the USMCA based on the annual evaluations will impact the country’s trucking and logistics sectors, given that these sectors require investments such as tractor-trailers, trailers, distribution centers, intermodal terminals, and technology.
In this sense, companies in the sector could postpone the acquisition of fleets, delay the construction of logistics parks, and consider expanding cross-border operations.
Other consequences would include increased operating costs, constant process updates, and less long-term planning by logistics-related companies, such as the automotive industry.
Nearshoring could also be at risk , as Mexico has attracted investment due to its proximity to the United States and the preferential access guaranteed by the USMCA. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Mexico reached US$23.591 billion in FDI , representing a 10.4% increase compared to the same period in 2025, according to data from the Ministry of Economy.
In addition, some relocation projects could target other markets considered more stable in commercial terms.
According to the above, for the logistics sector the main problem would be constant uncertainty, since in a scenario where every year there is the possibility of reviewing relevant aspects of the USMCA it could raise the cost of transport, reduce investment and make it difficult to plan supply chains in North America.
In a context where Mexico seeks to consolidate itself as a nearshoring platform , the stability of the trade framework remains one of the main assets to attract investment, strengthen freight transport and maintain the competitiveness of the region.
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