The uncertainty generated by the United States tariff policy, among other factors, has affected the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) , carried out by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , which anticipated a 0.2% decrease in Mexican economic activity for March 2025 at an annual rate, due to a decline in the industrial sector.
According to the INEGI report, the monthly IOAE showed no changes in the third month of the year.
Meanwhile, by economic activity group, an annual decline of 0.3% is expected in secondary industries , which include manufacturing and construction, in the aforementioned month.
On the other hand, tertiary activities , which include services such as commerce, transportation and communications, education and health, are expected to increase by 0.3% annually over the same period.
On a monthly basis, no changes are expected in the Global Economic Activity Indicator (GEI) for secondary activities; tertiary activities are expected to decline by 0.1% for March of this year.
According to the aforementioned data, economic activity declined in March, which would represent the second decline so far this year, as it also declined in February from the increase seen in January.
These figures come at a time when headline inflation rose for the second consecutive month last March, reaching 3.8% annually, following the increase seen in February, when it reached 3.7% annually.
It is worth remembering that on March 27, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) lowered the interest rate to 9% , which was its sixth consecutive cut and the second of 50 basis points , in an environment of uncertainty caused by the United States tariff plan, which was paused for 90 days, although China did not enter this grace period.
The country’s economic activity faces various risks associated with inflation, which could weaken domestic consumption and cause a slowdown in the construction sector, according to the Monex Financial Group .
The IOAE provides timely econometric estimates of the evolution of the Global Economic Activity Indicator, as well as secondary and tertiary activities, according to INEGI.
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