Mexicans’ wallets face a major challenge in the face of unabated inflation, as the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) stood at 4.22% annual rate in the first half of May 2025, driven by an increase in the cost of some basic food products such as chicken, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported Thursday .
This increase represents the highest level of inflation since the first half of December 2024, when it was 4.44 percent .
In the reference period, the INPC reported a biweekly variation of 0.09% , while the underlying price index , which excludes goods and services with more volatile prices or that do not respond to market conditions, increased 0.16% at a biweekly rate, with a rise in the price of merchandise of 0.13% and of services with 0.18 percent .
Also on a biweekly basis, the non-core price index decreased by 0.15% , within which, the prices of agricultural products grew by 2.30% and those of energy and government-authorized rates decreased by 2.10 percent .
Among the products that registered the greatest increases in the period were papaya (16.25%), chicken (8.96%), plantain (4.94%), and tomato (4.37%).
On the other hand, electricity prices fell by 18.45 percent, lemons by 7.31 percent, zucchini by 3.96 percent, and other fruits by 2.10 percent.
Among the entities with the largest increases in the INPC are Tabasco with 0.77%, Oaxaca with 0.70%, and the State of Mexico with 0.69 percent.
Sonora, Sinaloa, and Baja California Sur showed variations below the national average, with decreases of 3.09%, 2.77%, and 1.47%, respectively.
For its part, the financial institution Ve por más estimated that year-on-year growth in the CPI could close the year slightly below current levels, noting that upside risks and significant uncertainty about the outlook remain.
In his analysis of inflation for the first half of 2025, he indicated that the core index has risen for four fortnights and reached its highest level since last August. “The pressure has come from the merchandise category, which showed its strongest growth in a year.”
He emphasized that the non-core index was significantly pressured. “The largest increase was seen in livestock products, while energy products accelerated to a lesser extent.”
The institution noted that inflation has trended upward this year and has already exceeded the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) tolerance range . “This, along with recent adjustments to the ex ante real rate, suggests that the monetary policy stance should be adjusted more cautiously going forward. This decreases the likelihood of another 50-basis-point cut in the target rate for the June meeting.”
In response, analysts have pointed out that Mexico’s economic outlook for this year faces significant challenges due to the uncertainty generated by the U.S. tariff war, which has spread throughout the world.
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