The Mexican economy is estimated to have contracted in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), due to a general decline in economic activity , according to the Preliminary Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT), published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .
In the January-March period of this year, GDP fell 0.8% on a quarterly basis , while in its annual measurement it registered a slight advance of 0.2%, according to information from the agency.
In the cycle, the timely GDP of primary activities —agriculture, mining and fishing— fell 1.4% quarterly .
Meanwhile, the secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, showed a 1.1% quarterly decline . The tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation and communications, education, and health, also registered a negative figure, falling 0.6% quarterly.
In Q1 2026, on an annual basis, the preliminary estimate of GDP for primary activities fell by 0.1%, for secondary activities it fell by 1.1%, and for tertiary activities it rose by 0.9%.
“The Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a view on the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” explained Inegi regarding this indicator.
Despite the quarterly decline, analysts and industry organizations predict a slight improvement in the Mexican economy in the second half of the year, driven by factors such as the World Cup.
In that regard, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated moderate growth of 1.6% for Mexican GDP in 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.
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