Manufacturing activity in Mexico showed signs of less dynamism at the close of the third quarter of 2026, with a drop in expected orders and business confidence that remained virtually unchanged, although some segments, such as computer equipment, electronic accessories and electrical appliances, showed a better outlook.
In September 2026, the Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM) stood at 49.1 points, which meant a monthly drop of 2.5 points and 0.6 units at an annual rate, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) and the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) .
With this result, the indicator fell below the 50-point threshold, which marks the line between a favorable and a less favorable perception.
The decline was led by the orders component, which fell 6.1 points compared to last August. Production indicators also decreased (-3.9 points), as did employment (-0.3 points) and on-time delivery of inputs (-0.1 points), while input inventories increased 2.2 points month-on-month.
On an annual basis, orders fell 4.6 points, while production, on-time delivery of inputs, and input inventories increased 1.4, 0.9, and 1.7 points, respectively, during the reference period. Employment remained unchanged compared to September 2025.
By subsector groups, the one that showed the greatest annual increase was petroleum and coal derivatives, chemical, plastic and rubber industry with 8.3 points; followed by computer equipment, electronic accessories and electrical appliances with 6 points; meanwhile, transport equipment was the one with the greatest decrease with 10.9 units at an annual rate.
This behavior is relevant because the IPM functions as a leading indicator of business perceptions on variables related to the production process.
Business confidence, with caution
This caution was also reflected in the perception of businesses. The Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) for manufacturing industries stood at 48 points in the ninth month of the year, unchanged from last August and 1.3 points below its level at the same time last year, according to the results of the Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (GBIO), which stood at 48.4 points.
Within the manufacturing ICE, one of the components that showed the greatest weakness was the one related to the right time to invest, which stood at just 34.3 points and accumulated 160 consecutive months below the 50-point threshold .
The Construction Business Confidence Index (ICE) was 47.8 units in September 2026. During the period, it increased by 0.4 points month-over-month and 1.3 units year-over-year. The company’s future economic outlook was one of the best-performing indicators, with a monthly increase of 1.3 points and a year-over-year increase of 0.1 units.
Meanwhile, the Trade Confidence Index (ICE) rose 0.7 points compared to the previous month, reaching 48.9 units. However, it fell 0.7 points year-on-year. The country’s future economic outlook showed the best result, with a monthly increase of 1.2 units and a 0.9-point rise year-on-year.
In the reference month, the Private Non-Financial Services Economic Index (ICE) fell 0.2 points compared to August 2016 and declined 2.1 points year-on-year to 48.4 points. Two of its components showed negative performance month-on-month; the optimal time to invest increased by 1.1 points. Meanwhile, all five of its components declined year-on-year.
Within the ICE of private non-financial services, the transport, postal and storage sector stood at 50.9 points in September 2026, which meant 2.9 units less at an annual rate.
The IGOEC, which in the ninth month of the year registered an increase of 0.1 points on a monthly basis and fell 1 point annually, is the weighted average of the confidence indicators of the manufacturing, construction, trade and private non-financial services sectors, prepared from the Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE).
September’s data paints a picture of weaker growth in the Mexican manufacturing sector. On the one hand, the IGOEC remains below 50 points, reflecting a pessimistic business environment , while the IPM showed negative results, although some segments maintain a more optimistic outlook.
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