China continues to redefine global trade flows, while Latin America faces greater challenges to preserve its manufacturing capacity and compete in an increasingly complex environment.
During her participation in the Alacero Summit 2026, Adriana Carvalho, Associate Director, Metals Pricing at S&P Global, mentioned that Chinese production shows signs of moderation due to the crisis in the real estate sector, but the country maintains a dominant position both in steel manufacturing and in the export of goods manufactured with this input.
He estimated that steel production in China could fall from around one billion tons to 932 million tons by 2028, a reduction of about 7 percent.
However, he explained that the market continues to see strong pressure from Chinese exports , driven by sectors such as the automotive industry, machinery, household appliances, and industrial equipment.
He said the decline in residential construction is one of the main factors behind lower domestic demand. Housing starts in China are falling by nearly 25% annually and are significantly below the levels reached during the country’s real estate boom. At the same time, manufacturing sectors such as automotive continue to expand and are changing the type of steel demanded by the Chinese economy.
Meanwhile, other producers are gaining ground, such as India , which maintains growth of around 6% annually and is consolidating its position as one of the main drivers of global steelmaking capacity expansion. Vietnam also stands out with growth rates of around 29%, reflecting a gradual redistribution of global production.
Meanwhile, in Latin America, more and more Chinese steel is arriving incorporated into manufactured products, from vehicles to machinery, intensifying the pressure on regional industrial chains.
In this context, the region faces a scenario of trade fragmentation, increased protectionist measures in various markets, and still high logistics costs, in addition to climatic factors such as the possible influence of the El Niño phenomenon on mining operations, electrical systems, and supply chains.
Despite these challenges, he indicated that there are opportunities linked to the energy transition , the expansion of electricity networks, data centers, electromobility and infrastructure projects, sectors that will demand significant volumes of steel in the coming years.
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