The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) anticipated a 1.1% increase in the country’s economic activity at an annual rate in August 2024 , according to the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), which would reflect a slight increase specifically in services and commerce.
According to the report, within economic activities, a 0.7% increase is expected in secondary activities , which includes manufacturing and construction.
Meanwhile, tertiary activities , which include services such as commerce, transportation and communications, education and health, are expected to increase by 1.5% for August of this year.
For the eighth month of the year, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), as well as secondary activities, are estimated to grow 0.3% , compared to July.
These projections come after Inegi reported inflation of 4.99% last August.
Meanwhile, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2024 in Mexico registered a growth of 0.2% , compared to the first three months of the year. Analysts and financial institutions do not perceive a favorable outlook for GDP, so they have reduced their growth forecasts to between 1.5 and 2.3% for this year.
In addition, on September 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States Federal Reserve cut the funding rate by 50 basis points (bp), which will place the rate between 4.75 and 5.00 points.https://www.inegi.org.mx/default.html
For various analysts in the sector, the Fed’s decision sends a message about the direction the economy is heading, which could affect our country due to the close trade relationship we have with our northern neighbor.
In her X account, Gabriela Siller, Director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE shared that the last two times the Fed cut its rate by 50 bp, a period of recession in the United States followed, which occurred on September 18, 2007 and January 3, 2001 .
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