Weak private consumption and a drop in investment, driven by U.S. tariff measures, have slowed the Mexican economy in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Quarterly Indicators of Global Quarterly Supply and Demand (ODGT) and the Quarterly Gross Savings Indicator (ITAB) report released Wednesday .
According to the report, prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , in the period January-March 2025, the global supply of goods and services (equal to global demand) decreased 1.1% in real terms compared to the previous quarter.
Domestically, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.2%, and imports of goods and services fell 4.3% quarterly.
In the reference period, INEGI reported that the components of global demand performed as follows: private consumption , one of the country’s economic drivers, fell 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, exports of goods and services reported a quarterly increase of 1.1 percent.
In turn, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) , that is, fixed investment, decreased by 4% and government consumption increased by 0.4% in the period January-March 2025.
INEGI specified that the ITAB represents the portion of income generated by domestic or foreign production that is not spent on final consumer goods and services, and is used to finance the acquisition of assets by economic agents.
During the first quarter of 2025, gross savings at current prices fell 0.8% compared to the previous quarter; while savings in the domestic economy grew 5.5% quarterly.
Private consumption has fallen into a period of caution, driven by the upward trend in inflation in Mexico, which reached 4.42% last May compared to the previous year, and by changes in U.S. trade policy, which has heightened uncertainty when deciding on the purchase of goods and services.
The outlook for a slowdown in various industries and an increasing inflationary environment have affected consumer confidence, who have changed some of their habits, even cutting back on entertainment spending outside the home, according to the consulting firm Kantar .
Meanwhile, the International Chamber of Commerce Mexico (ICC Mexico)warned that tax, energy, and judicial regulations could change the rules in key sectors of the economy, which could pose risks to investors if they don’t understand how they will operate.
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