The drop in the price of some agricultural products, such as tomatoes, influenced the slowdown in inflation in the first half of June, which stood at 3.55% at an annual rate , which implied a decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous two weeks, according to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC).

This decline represented the lowest level of the CPI since the second half of October 2025, according to data released this Wednesday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

“The year-on-year headline inflation moderated for the fifth consecutive fortnight, largely reflecting the reversal shown by the non-core index between March and April,” detailed Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+)  in an analysis.

According to INEGI, the  core inflation index  —which excludes goods and services with the most volatile prices— rose 0.19% on a biweekly basis . Within this index, goods prices increased 0.11% and services prices 0.27%.

“The core inflation rate moderated slightly, but remains at high levels, with 26 observations above 4 percent. The goods sector continues to decelerate, reaching its lowest point since May of last year. Conversely, inflation in services maintains higher growth rates compared to the end of last year and its historical average, despite a context of weak economic activity,” explained BX+.

Meanwhile, on a bi-weekly basis, the non-core price index —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations—  fell 1.14 percent . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices dropped 5.24 percent, while energy and regulated tariff prices rose 0.10 percent.

In the first half of June, the products with the largest increases in their cost were avocados with 18.51%, air transport with 13.75%, potatoes and other tubers with 5.76%, package tourist services with an increase of 4.07% and other vegetables and legumes with 2.86% at a bi-weekly rate.

Meanwhile, the products with the greatest price decrease during the cycle were poblano peppers with 28.33%, tomatoes with 23.98%, serrano peppers with a decrease of 15.21%, grapes with 14.59%, eggs with 4.51%, and other fruits with a decrease in their cost of 1.80% every two weeks.

According to Ve por Más’s analysis, the bi-weekly variation in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) “was the lowest for the first half of June in 21 years. This was due to a sharp drop—even greater than expected—in agricultural products, mainly fruits and vegetables. On the other hand, the report highlighted the increase in prices for air travel, hotels, and tour packages. This latter increase tends to be observed at the beginning of summer; however, this time it was more pronounced than usual, perhaps reflecting the effects of the World Cup.”

The financial institution believes that after moderating in May and June, “ we expect inflation to rebound in July . Furthermore, we still believe that upside risks predominate, although a final resolution of the conflict in the Middle East would marginally help to balance things out.”

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El cargo This is how inflation in Mexico stood during the first half of June apareció primero en T21.

In April 2026, Mexico’s transport, postal and storage sector stood at 116.1 points , which meant a slight growth of 0.1% compared to last March, according to the results of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

Conversely, in its annual measurement, the  country’s logistics industry  , which is part of the tertiary activities, registered a drop of 0.2 percent .

The IGAE in the logistics sector in April showed mixed results, reflecting an industry undergoing readjustments, stemming from the global business environment and a slowing Mexican economy.

Meanwhile, in general terms, the country’s Global Indicator of Economic Activity advanced 1.2% on a monthly basis in the fourth month of 2026, while on an annual basis it increased 2.2% to stand at 106.9 points.

Within the IGAE (Global Indicator of Economic Activity), primary activities —such as agriculture and livestock—fell 0.4% month-on-month. Secondary activities—manufacturing and construction—increased 2.1% in April 2026 compared to the previous March.

Tertiary activities ,  which involve the service sector, advanced 0.7% on a monthly basis.

At an annual rate, primary activities grew 4.7%, secondary activities 1.8% and tertiary activities 2.4% in the reference period.

According to the results from last April, Mexican economic activity registered increases both monthly and annually; however, analysts are cautiously reviewing these data, as uncertainty persists due to various factors such as the protectionist trade policy of the United States and the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) .

According to Inegi, the IGAE allows one to know and monitor the evolution of the real sector of the economy in the short term.

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El cargo IGAE of the transport sector in Mexico, with a slight increase in April apareció primero en T21.

Revenues from establishments participating in the Manufacturing, Maquiladora and Export Services Industry Program (IMMEX) totaled 678.374 billion pesos (mdp) in April 2026 , representing a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the same month last year, when they reached 677.454 billion pesos. Of the total, 59.4% corresponded to revenues from the foreign market, reflecting the sector’s dependence on international demand.

According to information published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , in the fourth month of the year there were 6,523 establishments registered in the IMMEX program : 5,222 carried out manufacturing activities and the rest activities related to agriculture, fishing, commerce and services.

Meanwhile, employment increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis: in manufacturing establishments it rose by 0.2% and in non-manufacturing establishments it increased by 0.1%.

Conversely, in its annual measurement, jobs fell by 1.6% in April 2026.

Meanwhile, hours worked rose 0.4% on a monthly basis, although they registered an annual decline of 2.4 percent.

In April of this year, average real wages grew 0.6% monthly and showed an annual increase of 2.6%, representing an improvement in the income of workers in the sector.

By subsector, the manufacture of transport equipment had the highest income, with 246,978 million pesos.

The results of the IMMEX establishments in April 2026 showed a mixed performance , as while employment and hours worked registered ups and downs, remuneration in the sector had an upward trend, reflecting a slight improvement in the income of workers in this industry.

According to analysts, the export manufacturing sector is one of the most important in Mexico and will be one of the topics that will be put on the table in the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA) .

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El cargo IMMEX company revenues grow in April; employment results are mixed. apareció primero en T21.

US tariffs and a cautious Mexican economy have not slowed exports in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), according to the  Quarterly Global Supply and Demand Indicators (ODGT)  and the  Quarterly Gross Savings Indicator (ITAB) report released Thursday .

According to the report, prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , in the period January-March 2026 the  global supply of goods and services (equal to global demand) increased 0.3% in real terms compared to the previous quarter.

Within the country, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 0.6%, and  imports of goods and services  grew by 2.2% on a quarterly basis.

In its year-on-year comparison, global supply increased 5.2% in Q1 2026: GDP increased 0.4% and imports of goods and services registered a rise of 16 percent.

According to Inegi, the Quarterly Global Supply and Demand provides information on the short-term behavior of the main macroeconomic variables of production, consumption, investment and foreign trade.

During the period under review, the agency reported that the components of global demand behaved as follows:  government consumption increased by 1.6%, and exports of goods and services grew by 0.8%. Private consumption decreased by 0.8%, and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) , that is, fixed investment, fell by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter.

On an annual basis, government consumption rose 3.3%; private consumption increased by 2.4%, and exports of goods and services rose 1.5%. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell by 3%.

The Quarterly Gross Savings Indicator represents the portion of income generated from domestic or foreign production that is not spent on final consumption goods and services. This allows economic agents to finance the acquisition of assets, explained INEGI.

In the first quarter of 2026, and with seasonally adjusted figures, gross savings , at current prices, grew 2.4% compared to the previous quarter; in turn, savings in the domestic economy increased 3.4% quarterly.

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These results occur in a context where inflation in Mexico shows a downward trend, standing at 3.94% at an annual rate during May 2026 , as well as a slow industrial recovery.

According to CIAL Dun & Bradstreet , a firm specializing in providing technological solutions and data, the Mexican economy faces opportunities and challenges that require macroeconomic discipline to sustain confidence and growth.

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El cargo Global supply and demand, with positive figures in Q1 2026 apareció primero en T21.

July 1st will mark the start of the formal review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , clarified Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Ministry of Economy (SE) , who is in Washington DC for the second round of bilateral talks between Mexico and the United States, with a view to renegotiating this trade agreement.

In a video posted on his social media, the Mexican official said that on July 1, he and his team will have a virtual meeting with their counterparts from Canada and the United States.

“We will present Mexico’s position, and they will do the same regarding what comes next with the treaty. It can be automatically extended for 16 years, or it can be maintained for 10 years with periodic reviews,” he emphasized.

Ebrard explained that there are different alternatives planned, and that on that day they will see which one “we form among the three countries”.

He added that the next round of bilateral talks on the USMCA will take place in Mexico City on July 20.

“We are going to discuss texts and content in much more detail than what we have been talking about, since we started informal conversations in March and now we are having formal rounds of review,” he explained.

In the second round of bilateral talks in Washington DC, various topics related to the trilateral trade agreement were addressed, including rules of origin, economic security, agriculture, the automotive industry, and other relevant issues .

“Mexico presented its points of view and its proposals, which will have to be analyzed by our counterpart led by Jamieson Greer ( United States Trade Representative ),” Ebrard stated in the video.

It’s worth noting that the automotive sector is one of the key industries in the trilateral trade agreement. In the period from January to May 2016, Mexico exported 1,388,236 light vehicles , a 4% increase compared to the same period last year, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The main destination for vehicles assembled in the country was the United States , a market that accounted for 75.4% of international shipments, reflecting the integration of this industry in the North American region.

Furthermore, according to figures from the  US Census Bureau ,  trade between Mexico and the United States in April totaled $86,035.5 million , representing a 23.6% increase compared to April 2025.

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El cargo Formal review of the USMCA begins July 1: Ebrard apareció primero en T21.

Due to improved year-on-year performance in the services sector —which includes activities such as transportation and storage— , the Mexican economy would have rebounded in May 2026.

The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated a  1.1% year-on-year increase in the country’s economic activity during the fifth month of the year. On a  monthly basis , the indicator would have remained unchanged.

The year-on-year increase signals  moderate economic expansion in Mexico , despite ongoing global trade fluctuations and geopolitical conflicts such as those in the Middle East. However, caution remains.

According to the Inegi report,  by economic activity groups , an annual increase of 0.7% is expected in  secondary activities , which include the manufacturing and construction industries.

In the  tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation and storage, communications, education, and healthcare, an annual increase of 1.7% is projected. Furthermore, a 1.1% increase in the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) is anticipated, also on an annual basis.

In its monthly measurement, the IGAE and tertiary activities are expected to show no variation; while a decrease in secondary activities of 0.2% is estimated for May 2026.

According to Inegi, the IOAE is a statistical tool that allows anticipating the behavior of the IGAE, as well as secondary and tertiary activities, up to five weeks in advance.

Its measurement is important, as it allows for a preliminary view of economic behavior in order to make informed decisions for better planning in this area.

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El cargo Mexican economic activity is expected to grow slightly year-on-year in May; monthly growth stagnates apareció primero en T21.

Mexico has not fully capitalized on the opportunity created by nearshoring , despite the advantages offered by its trade integration with the United States and its position in North America, said Paulina Anciola, Deputy Director of Economic Studies at Banamex .

In an interview with T21, the specialist pointed out that, although investments associated with the relocation of production chains were registered after the COVID-19 pandemic , the phenomenon did not reach the magnitude that was expected a few years ago.

“In terms of nearshoring , I really think a large part of it remained just a narrative,” he stated.

Anciola acknowledged that these investments were made particularly in the Bajío region, where new centers were established. However, he noted that the realization of nearshoring has been less than expected, since in the last two years there has been practically no significant influx of new capital , and a large part of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) corresponds to reinvestment of profits from companies already established in Mexico.

In that regard, he explained that during the first years after the pandemic there was an expectation that Mexico would capture a significant portion of the investment that was looking to leave Asia and move closer to the US market.

However, he considered that the increase in global uncertainty ended up “cooling” some of those projects.

“When there is greater uncertainty, long-term investment tends to wait for conditions to be a little more favorable, for rates to be a little lower, and for the rules of the game to be clearer,” he explained.

The economist argued that the country maintains structural advantages that are difficult to replicate , particularly due to its proximity to the United States and its participation in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

“At the end of the day, being on the side of the United States is going to stay there forever, and Mexico is going to have that advantage against the rest of the world forever,” he said.

However, he warned that the country continues to face challenges in terms of productivity, infrastructure, job training, and investment certainty.

“I think a large part of nearshoring has been lost because of that, and I think Mexico has been in the ‘now we are going to take advantage of the opportunity’ phase for many years, and in the end it has never fully materialized,” he stated.

According to Anciola, as long as there is no new wave of investment,  it will be difficult to talk about a consolidation of the phenomenon in Mexico.

According to the Ministry of Economy , FDI in Mexico reached a record figure of 23 billion 591 million dollars (mdd) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), which meant a growth of 10.4% compared to the same period in 2025.

Of the total FDI, new investments increased 7.5% year-on-year in Q1 2026; while reinvestment of profits registered a year-on-year increase of 33.5% in the cycle.

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El cargo The materialization of nearshoring has been less than expected: Banamex apareció primero en T21.

Global trade is undergoing a transformation due to the growing demand for essential minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earth elements, which are fundamental to clean energy technologies, electrification, digitalization and the energy transition , warned the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the latest  World Trade Update , the international organization indicated that demand for lithium is expected to increase by 353% between 2024 and 2040, while demand for graphite is expected to rise by 131%.

“Clean technologies are expected to account for a larger share of demand. Their share of lithium demand is projected to increase from 62% in 2024 to 87% in 2040,” he stated.

The report stressed the need to diversify supply sources , improve market transparency and strengthen international cooperation, which could contribute to open, stable, secure, transparent, rules-based and sustainable trade.

UNCTAD specified that the supply of essential minerals for the energy transition is concentrated in reserves, mining, processing and refining.

“This concentration is especially acute in processing and refining, where the highest value activities take place,” he pointed out.

In that regard, he noted that in 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo  accounted for 74% of global cobalt production,  Indonesia for 67% of nickel, and  China  for 69% of rare earth elements, reflecting the concentration of critical mineral supply in just a few countries.

“Diversifying processing capacity, promoting recycling, and strengthening national value chains will take time. It will also require long-term investment and coordinated political support,” the analysis emphasized.

He added that governments are increasingly turning to trade policy to secure access to critical minerals, strengthen industrial competitiveness, and build more resilient supply chains.

“Since 2020, nearly 100 new export measures have been introduced on minerals essential for the energy transition, including 37 licensing requirements, 31 export taxes, 29 export bans, and one export quota. The Democratic Republic of Congo has introduced the largest number of measures, followed by China and Indonesia,” he noted.

The study analyzed 73 collaboration agreements, 58 of which were signed since 2022. These agreements are helping to reshape supply chains by combining trade, industrial, and investment policy instruments.

Agreements involving developing countries tend to focus more on extraction, with fewer provisions to support value addition.

UNCTAD considered that trade in critical minerals is at a crossroads, as it can either boost export earnings, investment and structural transformation in developing countries, or it can reinforce extractive models and fragment markets into rival blocs.

In response, the organization indicated that  greater international cooperation and political coherence are essential.

“Trade policy must support both the development needs of developing countries rich in critical minerals and the global transition to a digital and low-carbon economy,” he said.

The report comes in a context where the United States has imposed export restrictions on semiconductor technology to China, where the Asian country has responded with export controls on graphite, gallium and germanium.

Meanwhile, Mexico and the United States established a joint action plan on critical minerals with the aim of ensuring the supply of essential inputs for various key sectors of industry.

The plan includes regulations for the extraction, processing, and trade of these minerals. It also outlines technical and regulatory cooperation , as well as research and development of new technologies in this area, among other aspects.

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El cargo Critical minerals reshape the global trade landscape: UNCTAD apareció primero en T21.

Mexican industrial activity registered a 2.1% increase in April 2026 compared to last March, derived from an increase in construction activities, reported the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the agency’s figures, two of the four components of the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI) performed positively in the fourth month of the year, with  construction showing the greatest growth, rising 7.6% compared to March 2016. Manufacturing industries advanced 1.2% during April on a monthly basis.

Conversely, mining fell 0.7%, and the generation, transmission, distribution and marketing of electricity, water supply and natural gas by pipeline to the end consumer fell 0.3%, both components at a monthly rate.

In April 2026,  the IMAI showed an increase in its annual measurement of 1.8 percent .

Within the indicator, manufacturing industries; and generation, transmission, distribution and marketing of electricity, water supply and natural gas by pipeline to the final consumer each decreased by 0.3%, on an annual rate.

Construction grew 10.2%, and mining activities rose 3.4% compared to April 2025.

With the increase recorded in April 2026, both on a monthly and annual basis, Mexican industrial activity is once again showing signs of recovery in an economic scenario marked by constant trade changes in the world and conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

According to the results, the IMAI was driven by the construction sector, due to public infrastructure projects, works focused on urban development and some segments of building; however, other industries, such as manufacturing, showed mixed behavior.

The Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity allows us to know and monitor the evolution of industrial activity in Mexico, Inegi emphasized.

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El cargo Construction drives Mexican industrial activity in April apareció primero en T21.

Demand for products manufactured in China by Latin America continues to grow, driven mainly by consumer categories such as textiles, household goods, toys and food contact products.

In this context, Mexico positioned itself among the most dynamic markets in the region. According to data from QIMA , Mexican purchases of these products increased by 10% during the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.

The trend coincides with figures from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , which reported an annual growth of 4.43% in imports from China during the first quarter of the year, reaching a record level of 31,695.6 million dollars (USD).

At the regional level, supply activity from Latin America to China registered a year-on-year increase of 53%, reflecting a greater participation of Latin American buyers in Asian global production chains.

“This accelerated growth in demand for Chinese manufacturing represents a wake-up call for the Mexican market: it could become a loss of competitiveness for local industry or an opportunity to strengthen our value chains, raise standards, and focus on innovation, speed, and differentiation. The challenge for Mexico is not to halt Asian progress, but to build an industry capable of competing in quality, specialization, and responsiveness,” shared Iván Hernández, CEO of QIMA.

The company also noted that during the first quarter of 2026, Latin American buyers accounted for 32% of the inspections and audits carried out by the firm in China, surpassing Europe for the first time in the company’s records.

This behavior is occurring amidst a reconfiguration of international trade. While the United States continues to diversify its supply sources in Asia, Latin America is strengthening its position as a strategic buyer of Chinese products, particularly consumer goods and household items.

In addition to Mexico, other markets in the region also showed an increase in their demand for Chinese manufactured goods. Guatemala registered a 32% growth, while Argentina reported a 6% increase.

For QIMA, the increase in imports from China highlights the need to strengthen Mexico’s productive capacity .

Although the country has gained relevance as a destination for investments linked to nearshoring (relocation of production lines) and due to its proximity to the United States, the dynamism of purchases from Asia reflects opportunities to promote more specialized manufacturing, foster innovation and develop more robust value chains that allow for raising national competitiveness.

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El cargo Demand is growing for textiles, toys, and household goods made in China. apareció primero en T21.