Manufacturing activity in Mexico showed signs of less dynamism at the close of the third quarter of 2026, with a drop in expected orders and business confidence that remained virtually unchanged, although some segments, such as computer equipment, electronic accessories and electrical appliances, showed a better outlook.

In September 2026, the Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM) stood at 49.1 points, which meant a monthly drop of 2.5 points and 0.6 units at an annual rate, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) and the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) .

With this result, the indicator fell below the 50-point threshold, which marks the line between a favorable and a less favorable perception.

The decline was led by the orders component, which fell 6.1 points compared to last August. Production indicators also decreased (-3.9 points), as did employment (-0.3 points) and on-time delivery of inputs (-0.1 points), while input inventories increased 2.2 points month-on-month.

On an annual basis, orders fell 4.6 points, while production, on-time delivery of inputs, and input inventories increased 1.4, 0.9, and 1.7 points, respectively, during the reference period. Employment remained unchanged compared to September 2025.

By subsector groups, the one that showed the greatest annual increase was petroleum and coal derivatives, chemical, plastic and rubber industry with 8.3 points; followed by computer equipment, electronic accessories and electrical appliances with 6 points; meanwhile, transport equipment was the one with the greatest decrease with 10.9 units at an annual rate.

This behavior is relevant because the IPM functions as a leading indicator of business perceptions on variables related to the production process.

Business confidence, with caution

This caution was also reflected in the perception of businesses. The Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) for manufacturing industries stood at 48 points in the ninth month of the year, unchanged from last August and 1.3 points below its level at the same time last year, according to the results of the Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (GBIO), which stood at 48.4 points.

Within the manufacturing ICE, one of the components that showed the greatest weakness was the one related to the right time to invest, which stood at just 34.3 points and accumulated 160 consecutive months below the 50-point threshold .

The  Construction Business Confidence Index (ICE)  was 47.8 units in September 2026. During the period, it increased by 0.4 points month-over-month and 1.3 units year-over-year. The company’s future economic outlook was one of the best-performing indicators, with a monthly increase of 1.3 points and a year-over-year increase of 0.1 units.

Meanwhile, the  Trade Confidence Index (ICE) rose 0.7 points compared to the previous month, reaching 48.9 units. However, it fell 0.7 points year-on-year. The country’s future economic outlook showed the best result, with a monthly increase of 1.2 units and a 0.9-point rise year-on-year.

In the reference month, the  Private Non-Financial Services Economic Index (ICE)  fell 0.2 points compared to August 2016 and declined 2.1 points year-on-year to 48.4 points. Two of its components showed negative performance month-on-month; the optimal time to invest increased by 1.1 points. Meanwhile, all five of its components declined year-on-year.

Within the ICE of private non-financial services, the transport, postal and storage sector stood at 50.9 points  in September 2026, which meant 2.9 units less at an annual rate.

The IGOEC, which in the ninth month of the year registered an increase of 0.1 points on a monthly basis and fell 1 point annually, is the weighted average of the confidence indicators of the manufacturing, construction, trade and private non-financial services sectors, prepared from the Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE).

September’s data paints a picture of weaker growth in the Mexican manufacturing sector. On the one hand, the IGOEC remains below 50 points, reflecting a pessimistic business environment , while the IPM showed negative results, although some segments maintain a more optimistic outlook.

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The growth of exports from the federal entities during the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26) reinforces the weight of the country’s main manufacturing hubs and, with it, the demand on the transport and logistics chains linked to foreign trade.

Between April and June of this year, the value of exports from Mexico’s federal entities reached 195,260.7 million dollars (mdd) , an increase of 31.6% compared to the same period in 2025, according to the Quarterly Exports by Federal Entity (ETEF) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The agency highlighted that Chihuahua with 25.1%, Jalisco with 12.1%, Nuevo  León with 9.5%, Coahuila with 9.2%, Baja California with 7.6%, Guanajuato with 5.2% and Tamaulipas with 4.8% contributed 73.5% of the total value of merchandise shipments abroad in the period at an annual rate .

Chihuahua, which topped the list in the April-June 2026 period, recorded operations totaling $49,027.5 million , derived from the export of manufactured goods such as electronic equipment and computers. Jalisco contributed  $25,585.1 million , primarily from goods in the manufacturing and mining sectors.

During that period, Nuevo León registered exports of $18.5335 billion ; Coahuila’s totaled  $17.9675 billion . Baja California reported a contribution of $14.9178 billion to Mexican exports  . Guanajuato’s exports reached  $10.1632 billion , and Tamaulipas’s  $9.3626 billion .

Exports by economic activity

By economic sector, in Q2 2026, manufacturing  accounted for 92.5% of the total value of exports from the states. This was followed by mining  (both oil and non-oil) at 5.2% and the  agricultural sector at 2.3% annually.

By economic sector, mining increased by 48.3% and manufacturing by 32% annually. The agricultural sector decreased by 3.1% year-on-year.

Exports from the mining sector in Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, San Luis Potosí and Jalisco stood out due to their greater annual variation; as did those from the manufacturing sector in Jalisco, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Michoacán and Nayarit; and those from the agricultural sector in Quintana Roo, Campeche, Nuevo León, Querétaro and Puebla.

For their contribution to the value of total exports, in the second quarter of 2026, the exports of computer, communication, measurement equipment and other electronic equipment, components and accessories stood out in the manufacturing sector , representing 36.1% of the total value in its annual measurement.

They were followed by the manufacture of transport equipment with 28.9%, and the manufacture of accessories, electrical appliances and electric power generation equipment with 4.9% annually.

Exports from the mining subsector of metallic and non-metallic minerals, except oil and gas,  represented 2.6% and those from the agriculture subsector represented 2.3% annually.

According to the ETEF results, some states in the country registered good performance in their exports during the comparison period, with several entities in northern Mexico maintaining their leadership in the cycle.

This performance is in line with the subsequent increase in sales of Mexican products abroad, which in August 2026 totaled 78 billion 010 million dollars, a growth of 40.4% annually , according to figures from Inegi itself.

Mexico’s new industrial landscape and its role in reshaping global trade will be among the topics addressed at ETYL MTY , organized by Grupo T21 , which will take place on October 14 and 15 at the Presidente InterContinental Hotel in Monterrey, Nuevo León. 

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During South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s state visit to Mexico last week, it was reported that the relationship between the two countries seeks to deepen economic cooperation with an emphasis on investment, local suppliers, and strengthening supply chains .

In that context, it was announced that the company HS Hyosung is preparing a large-scale investment in San Luis Potosí to establish a production base for advanced materials , as part of a strategy to expand its presence in North America, according to Korean media.

The project will begin development in 2027 and will be implemented gradually, following the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the government of San Luis Potosí , within the framework of the Korea-Mexico Business Forum, held in Mexico City on September 25.

“This investment is a strategy to transform Mexico not into a mere production base, but into a key outpost connecting North America with the global market,” said Sung Nak-yang, CEO of HS Hyosung Advanced Materials.

Although HS Hyosung generally refers to an advanced materials base, Mexico’s Ministry of Economy (SE) specified that the company seeks to expand its automotive carpet business in San Luis Potosí .

The event was attended by Marcelo Ebrard , head of the SE; and Mario García Valdez , Secretary of Economic Development of San Luis Potosí.

The investment would expand HS Hyosung Advanced Materials ‘ existing manufacturing presence in Mexico . According to its global network, the company has airbag production facilities in Torreón, Coahuila, and Ensenada, Baja California .

So far, the amount of the investment, the capacity of the new operation, and the number of jobs it will generate have not been disclosed.

The projected investment comes in a context where Mexico and South Korea signed the Mexico-Korea Joint Action Plan 2026-2030 , in addition to 17 memoranda of understanding on matters such as economic and financial cooperation, science and technology, aerospace, agriculture, intellectual property, tourism and security, on September 24

Both governments also agreed to establish a new institutional framework for the protection of intellectual property rights and to promote the exchange of information on unauthorized goods at customs.

Lee Jae-myung ‘s visit to Mexico also included the modernization of the Mexico-Korea Agreement for the Promotion and Reciprocal Protection of Investments (APPRI) .

It is worth remembering that trade between Mexico and South Korea totaled 27 billion dollars in 2025 , according to figures presented by the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, during the visit of the South Korean president.

*The main image was created using artificial intelligence.

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Mexican exports advanced in August 2026, reaching a value of 78 billion 010 million dollars (mdd), an increase of 40.4% annually , according to the Mexican Merchandise Trade Balance (BCMM), published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

This growth allowed Mexico to post a trade surplus of $605 million , following the $848 million deficit recorded in July. The result also extended the accumulated positive balance for the first eight months of the year to $9.86 billion .

August’s performance was driven by non-oil exports, which increased 41.7% year-on-year, and a 2.8% drop in oil sales.

Non-automotive manufacturing takes center stage

The main driver of exports was the manufacturing sector, whose sales abroad grew 42.6% annually to 73,619 million dollars.

Within this segment, the performance of electrical and electronic equipment and appliances stood out , with exports increasing by 122.3% year-on-year. Mining and metallurgy products also performed exceptionally well , with a 50.4% increase, while plastic and rubber products grew by 10.6% year-on-year.

This performance contrasts with that of the automotive industry. Exports from this sector fell 2.2% year-on-year in August, with reductions in sales to the United States (-1.0%) as well as those to other markets (-7.8%).

The composition of the growth is relevant: the export advance in August did not depend exclusively on the automotive sector , but was accompanied by a particularly high expansion of non-automotive manufacturing.

This trend is also reflected in the relationship with the United States. In August 2026, non-oil exports to that market grew by 45.2% year-on-year, while those to the rest of the world increased by 23.5%. The United States accounted for 84.69% of total non-oil exports between January and August of this year .

In the first eight months of 2026, the value structure of merchandise exports was 92.1% manufactured goods, 2.7% non-oil extractive products, 2.6% oil goods, and 2.6% agricultural products.

Imports show higher demand for inputs

In August 2026, Mexico imported goods worth 77 billion 405 million dollars , an increase of 34.2% annually, with a strong advance in intermediate use goods, whose imports amounted to 63 billion 255 million dollars, 41.9% more than in August 2025.

Imports of capital goods reached $5,018 million, which implied an annual growth of 6.9 percent.

In the period January-August 2026, the accumulated value of total imports was 539 billion 537 million dollars, an amount 26.8% higher than that observed in the same period of 2025. Within it, non-oil imports rose 27.4% and oil imports 18% at an annual rate.

In the first eight months of the year, the structure of the value of imports was as follows: intermediate goods with 80.4%, consumer goods with 12.5% ​​and capital goods with 7.1 percent.

August figures show Mexican foreign trade with considerable expansion in 2026, although with export growth accompanied by strong demand for imported inputs, particularly those linked to manufacturing production.

The data also suggests that the performance of Mexican exports is beginning to show a broader composition than the traditional automotive strength.

In logistical terms, the above may translate into greater pressure on the flow of goods in and out, particularly in corridors linked to the manufacturing industry and to Mexico-United States trade .

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Mexico and South Korea are looking to take their economic relationship to a new stage, with an agenda that not only includes increasing trade and investment, but also strengthening supply chains, financing, local suppliers and access to strategic resources .

During South Korean President Lee Jae-myung ‘s state visit to Mexico, both countries signed the Mexico-Korea Joint Action Plan 2026-2030 , in addition to 17 memoranda of understanding on matters such as economic and financial cooperation, science and technology, aerospace, agriculture, intellectual property, tourism and security.

For the logistics sector, one of the most far-reaching agreements between the two countries was to establish a communication channel to coordinate cooperation in supply chains, particularly those related to crude oil and critical natural resources .

The mechanism gains relevance in a context of greater fragmentation of international trade, in which companies seek to reduce vulnerabilities in the supply of raw materials and components.

Supply, one of the objectives

The agenda also included greater integration of Mexican companies into the supply chains of South Korean companies operating in the country.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum noted that one of the agreements reached involved facilitating the participation of Mexican small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the supply chains of Korean companies , within the framework of the so-called Mexico Plan .

The objective is relevant due to the presence of Korean companies in Mexico. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) , there are more than two thousand companies from that Asian country established in Mexico , participating in productive activities and generating jobs.

From a logistical perspective, this could translate into more diversified supply networks within the country and a greater demand for transport, storage and services associated with the supply of components.

Another economic agreement was the creation of a $100 million intermediary credit fund , aimed at facilitating financing for Mexican companies that acquire goods and services from Korean companies, as well as for Korean companies that invest in Mexico.

The financial tool can particularly favor transactions related to capital goods , machinery, components and services used by South Korean companies in the country.

Lee Jae-myung ‘s visit to Mexico also included the modernization of the Mexico-Korea Agreement for the Promotion and Reciprocal Protection of Investments (APPRI) .

The two countries concluded negotiations to update this instrument after seven years of talks that began in 2019. The original agreement was signed in 2000 and entered into force in 2002.

The update aims to establish a more transparent and stable investment environment while maintaining governments’ capacity to implement public policies. The next step will be to complete the legal review and carry out the necessary internal procedures for its signing and entry into force.

Mexico and South Korea are entering this new stage with a trade exchange that totaled $27 billion in 2025 , according to figures presented by Sheinbaum during the visit of the South Korean president.

However, data from the Ministry of Economy (SE) show a trade relationship with a significant imbalance for Mexico.

Between January and July 2026, Mexico exported $4,004 million to South Korea , while imports reached $17,739 million , resulting in a negative trade balance of $13,735 million for Mexico.

Korea seeks to leverage the Mexican platform

Lee Jae-myung identified opportunities for cooperation in the semiconductor, aerospace, and electric vehicle sectors , as well as artificial intelligence . He also highlighted the complementarity between the Mexican automotive industry and Korean capabilities in batteries and components for electric vehicles.

Cooperation in supply chains takes on a strategic dimension with the inclusion of crude oil and critical natural resources .

Lee noted that South Korea was able to expand its oil imports thanks to cooperation with Mexico and that both countries will establish a channel to discuss collaboration on supply chains related to these resources .

In parallel, one of the memoranda of understanding contemplates economic and industrial cooperation, including the creation of a joint committee at the directors level and the exchange of information on mineral resources.

For Mexico, the opportunity lies in transforming this demand for raw materials and strategic resources into stronger industrial ties. For Korea, the goal is to secure an additional source of supply in an international landscape characterized by logistical disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and competition for strategic minerals.

Customs and intellectual property

The agenda also included a component directly related to foreign trade .

Both governments agreed to establish a new institutional framework for the protection of intellectual property rights and to promote the exchange of information on unauthorized goods at customs.

According to a statement from the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) , Mexico and South Korea actively participate in various multilateral forums, particularly within the framework of the World Customs Organization (WCO) , where they share objectives related to customs modernization, risk management, process digitization, trade facilitation, and strengthening the security of supply chains .

The Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation and Mutual Assistance in Customs with the Customs Service of the Republic of Korea (KCS) reflects the main interests of both administrations regarding the expedited exchange of information, institutional strengthening in ports, risk analysis, combating customs offenses and customs facilitation .

“The aim is to consolidate them through the use of advanced technologies, such as non-intrusive inspection equipment, the exchange of best practices and data analysis, as well as artificial intelligence, applied to customs management,” it was stated.

The meeting focused on strengthening information exchange between the two customs administrations, cooperation in combating drug trafficking, violations of intellectual property rights, and triangulated schemes for tax evasion.

A relationship that seeks greater integration

The agreements and the 2026-2030 Action Plan propose a broader bilateral relationship than current trade figures reflect.

On the one hand, South Korea represents a significant source of technology, components, capital goods, and investment for Mexico. On the other hand, Mexico offers Korean companies a manufacturing platform linked to North America.

Taken together, the agreements suggest that both countries are seeking to move from a relationship based primarily on the exchange of goods to a deeper integration of their production chains, at a time when the relationship between Mexico and the United States has become strained, despite the good bilateral trade performance.

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Employment in the transportation, communications, postal and warehousing sector in Mexico  registered a decrease during August 2026, in contrast to the growth observed in the Mexican labor market as a whole.

According to the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the sector accounted for three million 492 thousand 509 people employed in the eighth month of the year , a drop of 1.89% compared to the same month of 2025, when it was three million 559 thousand 873.

This behavior contrasts with the overall performance of the country’s labor market. In August 2026, the employed population in Mexico reached 60.7 million people , an annual increase of 1.2 million, while the Economically Active Population (EAP) reached 62.6 million, 1.3 million more than the previous year.

Logistics lags behind other activities

The reduction recorded in transport, communications, mail and storage occurred while other tertiary activities showed significant progress.

The largest annual increases were seen in miscellaneous services with 790,000 people employed, restaurants and accommodation services with 538,000, professional, financial and corporate services with 247,000, government and international organizations with 242,000, and construction with 146,000 people.

In contrast, the sectors that experienced the greatest decline were agriculture, livestock, forestry, hunting and fishing with 290,000 fewer people; manufacturing with 263,000; and commerce with 161,000 fewer people at an annual rate.

What does this mean for logistics?

This data does not necessarily imply a contraction in logistics demand. Rather, it shows that job growth is not uniform across the activities that make up the supply chain .

Transportation, communications, postal services, and warehousing are activities particularly linked to the behavior of commerce, manufacturing, and the movement of goods. Therefore, the annual reduction of 67,364 people in the sector can be interpreted as a sign that, despite the expansion of some service activities, adjustments persist within segments associated with this activity.

Furthermore, this data should be viewed in conjunction with the performance of the manufacturing and trade industries, which also experienced declines in their employed population during the period.

The labor market continues to grow, but with both positive and negative aspects.

Nationally, the result for August 2026 was moderate expansion. The economic participation rate was 59.3% annually , while the unemployment rate stood at 3% annually.

At the same time, salaried employment reached 41.7 million people, one million more than in August 2025. Self-employment also increased by 342,000 people.

However, some indicators show that the quantitative growth in employment coexists with quality challenges. The rate of informal employment stood at 55% , equivalent to 33.4 million people.

Meanwhile, the underemployed population was 4.3 million people , 64,000 more than last year, although the underemployment rate remained practically stable at 7 percent.

According to INEGI, the National Survey of Occupation and Employment shows the behavior of the Mexican labor market. It provides monthly data on the economically active population, employment, informal employment, underemployment, and unemployment.

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After the setback last June, economic activity in the transport, postal and storage sector rebounded in July 2026 , with a monthly advance of 2.4%, according to the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

With this result, Mexico’s logistics activity stood at 119 points , while in its year-on-year comparison it showed an increase of 3.5 percent.

July’s performance contrasts with that of the sixth month of 2016, when the sector had decreased by 0.7% monthly and 0.2% annually.

For logistics companies, the cost environment is a key factor to consider. In July, transportation, postal, and warehousing prices rose 0.70% month-on-month and 4.19% year-on-year, according to the National Producer Price Index. Within the sector, general freight trucking saw a 3.84% year-on-year increase, while freight warehousing rose 2.57% annually.

The growth of logistics activity occurs in a scenario where companies not only face greater demand for services, but also pressures on operating costs.

Behavior also becomes relevant when observing the performance of the economy as a whole.

The rebound occurred in a context of greater dynamism in tertiary activities —services such as transport, mail and storage— which grew 1.2% on a monthly basis and increased 4% annually during July.

Meanwhile,  primary activities  —agriculture and livestock—fell 1.1% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year. Secondary  activities—manufacturing and construction—increased 0.5% month-on-month and rose 2.4% year-on-year.

In the seventh month of the year, the IGAE registered a monthly increase of 0.8% in July and 3.3% annually.

Across the economy as a whole, secondary activities increased by 0.5% month-on-month in July, while primary activities declined by 1.1%. Year-on-year, secondary activities rose by 2.4% and primary activities fell by 0.6%.

According to Inegi, the IGAE estimates the growth or contraction of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and allows for the detection of the behavior of the productive sectors, offering an overview of the Mexican economy and its impact on the finances of companies .

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El cargo This was the result of the IGAE in the logistics sector during July apareció primero en T21.

Mexican mining and metallurgical production showed a rebound in July 2026, after the decline recorded last June, although the annual result still reflects a contraction in mineral extraction and processing activity.

According to the Mining and Metallurgical Industry Statistics (EIMM) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , production increased 3.8% month-on-month in July, but decreased 3.9% compared to the same month in 2025 .

The monthly advance contrasts with the 8.6% drop recorded last June, when production also accumulated an annual decline of 10.6 percent.

The result in the seventh month of the year represents a change in the monthly trajectory, but without showing a complete recovery of the sector.

Zinc, lead and gold, with the biggest declines

By mineral, zinc showed the largest annual decrease among the main products reported by INEGI, with a drop of 18.6 percent. Lead followed , decreasing by 12 percent, while gold production fell by 10.1 percent. Sulfur production also declined by 4.3 percent and silver by 2.3 percent year-on-year.

In contrast, some minerals showed increases. Copper production rose 3.1% year-on-year, followed by non-coking coal at 1.9%, and iron pellets at 1.2%. Fluorite remained virtually unchanged with a 0.1% increase, and gypsum showed no change in its year-on-year measurement.

This behavior reflects that the monthly recovery was not uniform across the different minerals. While some products regained ground, others continued to decline, limiting the industry’s annual performance.

Production maintains regional contrasts

By state, Sonora stood out in silver production with 4.9%, as well as in copper with 4%. Chihuahua stood out in zinc with 2%, Michoacán in iron with 11.8%, and Coahuila in fluorite production with 1.5% at an annual rate.

The July result comes after several months of erratic behavior. The seasonally adjusted series from INEGI shows that mining and metallurgical production had registered monthly declines in March, May, and June, interspersed with increases in April.

For supply chains, mining activity has implications beyond extraction. Minerals are used in industrial processes, metallurgy, construction, and capital goods manufacturing, so changes in production volumes can alter the transportation, storage, and distribution requirements for raw materials.

Added to this is the link with foreign trade. In July 2026, Mexican exports of mining and metallurgy products increased by 27.3% year-on-year , according to Mexico’s Merchandise Trade Balance.

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The fourth round of talks between Mexico and the United States to review the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will have to wait. Although the teams were initially scheduled to resume negotiations on September 28, Washington’s international agenda led both countries to postpone the meeting, and October now appears to be the most likely date.

Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez, Undersecretary of Foreign Trade at the Ministry of Economy (SE) , explained that there is still no formal date announced, but he indicated that talks could resume next month.

“Look, we haven’t announced the topic of the fourth round yet, because, as you know, there’s the visit of President Xi of China to the United States. It was decided to postpone this a little. The G20 summit is also coming up next week, as you know, we’re in Milwaukee, so there are several events,” he explained at the end of the 5th Mexico-United States Binational Convention of the American Society of Mexico .

The postponement comes after three rounds of bilateral talks. The third round took place last July in Mexico City and included discussions on steel and aluminum, vehicles, economic security, labor, agriculture, and electronic payment services .

For Mexico, however, the timeline does not mean that negotiations have stalled. Gutiérrez asserted that they maintain virtually daily communication with the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and the U.S. Department of Commerce .

The next step in the USMCA review also comes with a defined priority for Mexico: to improve the tariff conditions of sectors considered strategic, such as automotive, steel and aluminum, affected by US trade measures under Section 232.

“That is Mexico’s priority: to achieve the best conditions in the world for these sectors, and that is what we are working on,” the undersecretary stated.

The official assured that the United States maintains a receptive position to Mexican proposals, although he did not anticipate a specific outcome.

“We are working towards that. Our meetings are very positive and we are optimistic that we can have results in the coming years,” he said.

Beyond tariff negotiations, Mexico’s argument seeks to use the USMCA review to deepen North American production integration . Gutiérrez emphasized that Mexico remains committed to strengthening regional goods production.

The issue is relevant for supply chains because the treaty review is not limited to existing trade rules, but also incorporates discussions on rules of origin, economic security, and dependence on inputs from other regions.

In that scenario, the negotiation has two paths for the Mexican government: defend the existing access conditions for Mexican exports and seek new spaces to increase production within North America.

Currently, around 85% of Mexican exports to the United States enter duty-free . Mexico maintains one of the lowest tariffs in the world, Gutiérrez explained.

“We have one of the lowest tariffs on the planet, 3.4 percent. We have a joint work plan with the United States to start bringing in from other regions of the world what we are currently importing and start producing it in Mexico, the United States, and Canada,” he emphasized.

The negotiation also has a compliance dimension. The US administration initially presented around 54 points . However, some of these generate new follow-up points once the first stage is completed. As an example, they mentioned the regulation of digital platforms: once the legislation is approved, the next step is to review its implementation.

Mexico also raised approximately 12 issues. These included respect for the decisions of a panel related to the methodology for rules of origin in the automotive sector, customs matters , and proposals to increase regional production of currently imported goods.

Thus, the postponement of the fourth bilateral round does not in itself modify the content of the review, but it does extend the period of technical work before both countries formally meet again.

For Mexican production chains, particularly those linked to the automotive, steel and aluminum sectors, the tariff discussion will be one of the elements that will continue to shape the trade landscape in the coming months.

The USTR itself has indicated that the 2026 rounds seek to advance rules of origin, economic security and conditions to strengthen production in the United States and Mexico, as well as reduce the presence of inputs from countries outside the region .

The timeline, for now, points to October, but without a specific date. Gutiérrez acknowledged that Mexico aims to achieve results this year, though he left the timeframe open: “We don’t know. We’re working towards it; we want it to be this year, but we’ll see. It depends on many factors.”

The fourth round of talks between Mexico and the United States is particularly relevant given the trade between the two countries. In the period from January to July 2016 alone, the exchange of goods between Mexico and the United States totaled $588,523.8 million , according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau , highlighting the level of integration between the two nations in the commercial sector.

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Annual general inflation in Mexico stood at 3.42% during the first half of September 2026 , after the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) increased 0.33% compared to the previous two weeks, reported the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The result represented an acceleration compared to the first half of August, when the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) rose 0.10% and annual inflation stood at 3.26%. Consequently, the prices of some agricultural products increased at the beginning of September.

The greatest pressure came from the non-core component —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations—, which registered a rise of 0.88% in fortnightly terms, compared to the advance of 0.17% of the core index —which excludes goods and services with high volatility—.

Within the non-core component, fruit and vegetable prices increased 3.38% , while energy and government-regulated tariffs rose 0.24% on a bi-weekly basis.

Within the core index, merchandise prices increased 0.13% and service prices 0.21% on a bi-weekly basis.

Which products increased in price?

Tomatoes were the product that most impacted the overall result, with a 22.79% increase on a bi-weekly basis. This was followed by onions at 8.61%, LP gas at 1.97%, and chicken at 1.53%. In addition to housing and other services, education saw price increases associated with the start of the 2026-2027 school year: tuition fees rose 2.87% on a bi-weekly basis.

Conversely, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were potatoes and other tubers with a price drop of 6.69%, avocados with 4.02%, oranges with 3.95%, tequila with 2.91%, and automobiles with a decrease of 0.26% on a bi-weekly basis.

The behavior shows that the rebound in inflation at the beginning of September was mainly concentrated in products with greater volatility, particularly food, while underlying pressures advanced at a slower pace.

The overall result is still within the variability range of the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) inflation target for this year, which is 3% +/- one percentage point .

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El cargo Mexicans’ wallets “scream”; inflation accelerates in the first half of September apareció primero en T21.