China continues to redefine global trade flows, while Latin America faces greater challenges to preserve its manufacturing capacity and compete in an increasingly complex environment.

During her participation in the Alacero Summit 2026, Adriana Carvalho, Associate Director, Metals Pricing at S&P Global, mentioned that Chinese production shows signs of moderation due to the crisis in the real estate sector, but the country maintains a dominant position both in steel manufacturing and in the export of goods manufactured with this input.

He estimated that steel production in China could fall from around one billion tons to 932 million tons by 2028, a reduction of about 7 percent.

However, he explained that the market continues to see strong pressure from Chinese exports , driven by sectors such as the automotive industry, machinery, household appliances, and industrial equipment.

He said the decline in residential construction is one of the main factors behind lower domestic demand. Housing starts in China are falling by nearly 25% annually and are significantly below the levels reached during the country’s real estate boom. At the same time, manufacturing sectors such as automotive continue to expand and are changing the type of steel demanded by the Chinese economy.

Meanwhile, other producers are gaining ground, such as India , which maintains growth of around 6% annually and is consolidating its position as one of the main drivers of global steelmaking capacity expansion. Vietnam also stands out with growth rates of around 29%, reflecting a gradual redistribution of global production.

Meanwhile, in Latin America, more and more Chinese steel is arriving incorporated into manufactured products, from vehicles to machinery, intensifying the pressure on regional industrial chains.

In this context, the region faces a scenario of trade fragmentation, increased protectionist measures in various markets, and still high logistics costs, in addition to climatic factors such as the possible influence of the El Niño phenomenon on mining operations, electrical systems, and supply chains.

Despite these challenges, he indicated that there are opportunities linked to the energy transition , the expansion of electricity networks, data centers, electromobility and infrastructure projects, sectors that will demand significant volumes of steel in the coming years.

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El cargo Latin America seeks to resist Chinese advance in the steel industry apareció primero en T21.

China’s growing influence in global manufacturing and the accelerated deindustrialization facing Latin American economies are forcing the region to design an industrial policy that strengthens competitiveness and preserves strategic productive capacities, specialists agreed during the panel “The New Global Economic Scenario: Challenges and Opportunities for Latin America,” within the framework of the Alacero Summit 2026.

Luis Foncerrada, Chief Economist of AMCHAM Mexico , said that “if things continue as they are, China will be producing 45% of the world’s manufactured goods, it will not stop and that implies very serious risks.”

“(What is needed) is a comprehensive industrial policy that, in the case of steel, includes products, users and products, any other related manufacturing, and this cannot happen without the participation of the government and governments, who can agree on a strategy, not a wish list, but a clear strategy with actions and a long-term program,” he argued.

Meanwhile, Marcos Troyjo, former president of the New Development Bank (NDB), recalled that in the last 10 years, the country has been responsible for a 33% increase in global GDP , and has entered a new economic stage in which it seeks to reduce external dependencies while increasing the dependence of other countries on its market and production chains.

According to the former Brazilian official, this transformation forces Latin American countries to rethink their industrial and commercial strategies.

Troyjo agreed that trade protection alone will not solve the problem. He compared industrial strategy to a football team that cannot simply focus on defense and stressed the need to promote investment, technological innovation, and new financing mechanisms.

Both specialists identified Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru as economies poised to lead a potential regional reindustrialization agenda. However, they cautioned that success will depend on the ability of governments and the business sector to coordinate their positions and develop joint projects.

“It’s a great opportunity and there’s no time to waste. We have a diagnosis, we know what to do: protection, subsidies, financing, etc. It requires someone to take on the task of making it happen, and with these countries, we have the strength to achieve it,” explained Luis Foncerrada.

He stated that given the possibility that China will carry out 45% of global manufacturing in the next three years, “we are facing a monster of technology, innovation and production, reasons why industrial policy is required. 

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El cargo Regional industrial policy is urgently needed in the face of China’s growth apareció primero en T21.

Latin America’s steel industry warned that it is facing one of the most complex periods in recent years due to the growth of steel imports from China, a phenomenon that has increased competition in regional markets and put pressure on the profitability of local producers.

“The latest report published by Alacero through Margaret Myers indicates that 5% of China’s GDP is allocated to industrial subsidies. That’s more than $900 billion per year, which, to put it in perspective, is roughly equivalent to 50% of Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product,” said Ezequiel Tarvernelli, director of the Latin American Steel Association (Alacero).

In a meeting with the media on the first day of the Alacero Summit 2026 , he mentioned that currently four out of every 10 tons of steel consumed in the region come from imports, mainly from China or re-exported through third countries.

This situation, he said, creates market distortions that affect investment, employment, and the development of high value-added industrial chains.

He mentioned that Latin America has relevant competitive advantages, including availability of raw materials, access to energy, installed technological capacity and specialized personnel; however, he considered it essential that governments promote policies that guarantee equitable competitive conditions against economies that maintain large-scale industrial support programs.

He explained that steel is a strategic input for activities such as construction, vehicle manufacturing, energy infrastructure and industrial projects, so preserving a solid productive base is key to the region’s economic growth.

He simply mentioned that in recent years the Latin American steel industry has maintained important investment programs to modernize plants, increase operational efficiency and advance in decarbonization processes.

Given this scenario, Ezequiel Tarvernelli said that among the measures proposed by the sector are trade defense mechanisms , greater monitoring of imports, as well as industrial policies aimed at strengthening regional supply chains.

They also called for deeper productive integration with North America, given the opportunities arising from nearshoring and the growing demand for manufactured goods in the United States.

Similarly, he pointed out that the challenge is not limited to steel, but involves the competitiveness of sectors ranging from auto parts and machinery to construction and infrastructure.

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El cargo Chinese steel puts pressure on Latin American steelmaking; subsidies are equivalent to half of Mexico’s GDP apareció primero en T21.

The expansion of Mexican companies into the United States is not only modifying their business operations, but is also generating new financial and asset management needs for their owners, who must consider aspects such as investments, liquidity and obligations in both countries.

During the webinar Wealth Mobility: Mexico and the United States in a new economic and regulatory environment , Juan Carlos Eguiarte, Country Manager Mexico of BAI Capital , explained that the internationalization of businesses also influences the personal and family decisions of entrepreneurs.

This phenomenon, called by the firm as near living , arises as a consequence of nearshoring , when the presence of a company in different markets begins to influence where the members of the business families live, invest or study.

As part of this trend, Eguiarte highlighted that, between April 2025 and March 2026, Mexican buyers purchased approximately 9,400 homes in the United States, for an estimated value of five billion dollars , according to figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) cited during his presentation. These transactions represented 14% of purchases made by foreigners, placing Mexico as the second-largest source of buyers, second only to Canada.

The specialist pointed out that a company can maintain its production in Mexico and develop commercial operations in the United States, which implies frequent travel, new financial management needs, and greater exposure to different currencies.

Given this scenario, he highlighted the importance of separating the finances of companies from the equity needs of their owners , considering payment obligations, the availability of resources, and the risks associated with operating in both countries.

Finally, he explained that asset mobility requires a strategy that considers both business continuity and decisions regarding investment, housing, education, and family succession, particularly among entrepreneurs with cross-border operations.

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El cargo Business expansion into the US drives new wealth management strategies: Bai Capital apareció primero en T21.

More than a year after the section 232 tariffs imposed by the United States government were put in place, the Mexican steel industry continues to face a significant reduction in its exports to that market, although it is seeing signs of recovery driven by support measures for the sector in Mexico.

Sergio de la Maza, president of the National Chamber of the Iron and Steel Industry (Canacero), said that the tariffs have caused a drop of nearly 50% in Mexican steel shipments to that country compared to pre-tax levels.

Although he specified that while exports have begun to recover, the progress has been moderate, with an estimated rebound of between 4 and 6% in volume.

“Our imports fell dramatically, dropping below 50% of what we were sending. And currently they have recovered 4% or 5%, the steel mills in the United States are already at full capacity and we are sending what the American market cannot supply,” he explained.

During a meeting with the media at the Alacero Summit 2026 , he mentioned that the installed capacity of US steel mills is at maximum utilization, so the market continues to require imports to meet its demand.

However, Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, have taken advantage of the situation to increase their share of this market and occupy spaces that were previously supplied by Mexico.

Despite this scenario, the industry remains hopeful that negotiations between the Mexican and U.S. governments will lead to a possible review of the tariffs. While their complete elimination is not necessarily expected, they are confident that tariffs can be reduced to restore conditions for greater access to the U.S. market.

At the same time, industry representatives acknowledged that the actions implemented by the Mexican government have helped stimulate domestic demand for steel, such as the agreement signed in April with the federal government to promote the national market in infrastructure projects, as well as the measures promoted by the Ministry of Economy to strengthen import control mechanisms.

He considered that these actions, added to the projects contemplated within the Mexico Plan, have favored greater domestic demand and a partial recovery of the sector’s activity.

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El cargo Section 232 tariffs continue to hinder Mexican steel exports: Canacero apareció primero en T21.

China’s overcapacity in steel production and trade practices that distort international markets are one of the main challenges for the steel industry in Latin America , making it necessary to strengthen trade defense mechanisms and promote a regional competitiveness agenda.

This was stated by Máximo Vedoya, president of the Latin American Steel Association (Alacero) , who highlighted that China went from representing 3% to around 35% of global manufacturing , while its share of world consumption is close to 12 percent.

This difference, said the CEO of Ternium during the opening of Alacero Summit 2026 , demonstrates the scale of its export capacity and the impact it has on the markets.

“ China’s production levels far exceed its domestic demand and distort prices. This discourages investment and displaces production and employment from other countries. The OECD, in an analysis of steel, warned that the fastest-growing sector in 2019 was steel used in machinery, vehicles, and metal products, which grew by more than 152%,” he explained.

He mentioned that the impact is seen in the Latin American automotive industry , where Chinese brands, such as cars, have gained ground and currently represent approximately one in five vehicles sold in the region.

Mexico, an example of industrial policy

Given this scenario, Vedoya considered the measures promoted by Mexico to strengthen its national industry to be positive , particularly through the Mexico Plan and trade protection instruments.

Among the actions highlighted was the tariff package that covers 1,463 tariff items corresponding to 17 industrial sectors, including steel, auto parts, automobiles and household appliances.

He also noted the agreement to promote the Mexican steel industry , which involves 19 public institutions and three business chambers, with the purpose of promoting greater national steel content in the country’s strategic projects.

He said these measures represent an example of collaboration between the public and private sectors to strengthen national productive capacities, and called on other Latin American countries to advance similar strategies.

He also stressed that the steel industry must take an active role through investment, technological innovation, research, development, and specialized training.

He explained that the steel industry in Latin America generates around 1.4 million direct jobs and maintains a strategic relationship with thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Regarding investment, he indicated that during the last five years the sector allocated 22 billion dollars to the region and has ongoing projects worth another 13 billion dollars by 2030.

In this regard, he highlighted the importance of accompanying investments with the incorporation of technology and the strengthening of the capabilities of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in order to improve their production processes and generate greater value.

“The steel industry in Latin America can compete with any other in the world under fair competition. Under market rules, every dollar invested multiplies its impact fivefold,” he added.

He asserted that, although the outlook is complicated, it is necessary to work together and develop an agenda that promotes competitiveness, investment, develops talent , and supports the decarbonization of the industry.

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El cargo Latin American steel industry demands to curb China apareció primero en T21.

Tlaxcala (6.9%), Oaxaca (5.9%) and Puebla (4.5%)

According to the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity by Federal Entity (IMAIEF) —which provides information on the behavior of industrial activity in the states—, Quintana Roo, Morelos, Chiapas and Yucatán also stood out in their industries during the period.

Conversely, the states that reported the largest drops in the seventh month of the year compared to June 2026 were Tamaulipas with a decrease of 5.2%, Hidalgo with a decrease of 3.2% and Michoacán with a decline of 2.7 percent.

In its annual measurement, the entities where industrial activity showed the greatest progress were Hidalgo, Chiapas and Yucatán, with 15.5%, 12.2% and 11.8%, respectively, during July 2026.

The states with the largest year-on-year declines in their industrial activity were Morelos with 18.4%, Baja California Sur with 12.9%, and Aguascalientes with 9.8%.

Activity by sector

In July 2026, manufacturing industries in Tabasco and Sonora registered significant advances at an annual rate.

In construction , the largest increases occurred in Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Querétaro, Yucatán, Colima, Tlaxcala, Campeche, Chiapas, Tamaulipas and Sinaloa.

The mining sector saw increases in Tamaulipas. Veracruz, Yucatán, the State of Mexico, and Chiapas followed.

In the generation, transmission, distribution and marketing of electricity, water supply and natural gas by pipeline to the end consumer,  the increases in Chiapas, San Luis Potosí, Quintana Roo and Querétaro stood out at an annual rate.

July’s results show that the industrial recovery is not progressing at the same pace across the country. While states like Hidalgo and Chiapas registered double-digit year-on-year increases, others, such as Morelos and Baja California Sur, faced significant setbacks.

For transport and logistics, these regional differences represent signals about the evolution of demand for goods, raw materials, inputs and finished products.

Thus, the dynamism of construction can translate into greater requirements for the movement of materials and equipment, while the advance of manufacturing can strengthen cargo movements linked to industrial supply chains.

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El cargo These Mexican states stood out in their industrial activity in July apareció primero en T21.

The victory of Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the US midterm elections opens a new political stage in Texas, one of Mexico’s main trading partners, and generates expectations about a possible change in the economic and border relationship between the two parties.

For Adrián González, president of Global Alliance Solutions , Hinojosa’s arrival could represent a more favorable environment for trade , particularly due to the possibility of a less confrontational stance towards the immigration and trade policies promoted by US President Donald Trump.

However, it is still premature to anticipate concrete changes in Texas trade policy, because there is not enough clarity on the positions of the next governor on foreign trade since the main tariff decisions fall under the federal level.

“I believe that, in general, there can be an improvement due to this rebalancing of Trump’s policies, which have indeed damaged the relationship between the countries,” González commented in an interview with T21.

During his campaign, Hinojosa promised to protect “Texans’ wallets” by monitoring large corporations to prevent them from arbitrarily raising food prices. This could affect some Mexican companies operating in Texas, particularly in the food sector, such as Bimbo and Gruma.

According to her campaign proposals, published on her website, Gina Hinojosa proposed reducing the supermarket bill.

“Gina will prohibit price gouging and fight to ensure that food prices reflect real market costs, not speculation designed to squeeze more money out of Texas workers. She will make sure that large corporations cannot change prices on the shelves,” the website reads.

This could impact companies like Chedraui, through its chains El Super, Smart & Final and Fiesta Mart, which have facilities in Texas.

The political change is occurring in a state whose economic relationship with Mexico carries significant weight. According to the Ministry of Economy (SE) , using data from the U.S. Census Bureau , total trade between Texas and Mexico reached $302.544 billion in 2025 , representing a 7.6% increase compared to 2024. Texas imports from Mexico totaled $177.39 billion, while exports to Mexico amounted to $125.154 billion.

“During 2025, Texas was the state with the highest bilateral trade between Mexico and the United States. Furthermore, it was Texas’s largest supplier (43.1%) and the main destination for its exports (27.8%),” the Ministry of Economy explained.

This trade dependence explains why, regardless of partisan differences, Texas has maintained an interest in preserving trade with Mexico . González noted that even during the administration of Republican Greg Abbott, there was an intention for Trump to moderate his trade decisions, although the state government did not necessarily distance itself from the policies of the U.S. president.

In that regard, he considered that Hinojosa could assume a more moderate and trade-friendly position , particularly on issues related to border crossings, Mexican investments, and the relationship with Latino communities.

One example that illustrates the impact of political decisions on economic activity was the suspension of border trade operations due to immigration measures during the Abbott administration, the specialist noted. Therefore, he indicated that it would be less likely that an administration led by Hinojosa would again resort to this type of action to exert pressure on immigration matters.

It is worth remembering that in the midterm elections of November 3, 2026, Democrat Gina Hinojosa obtained 5,232,690 votes, or 52.8%, for the governorship of Texas, compared to 4,525,990 votes for Republican Greg Abbott, or 45.7%.

A commercial link that can hardly be ignored

Texas’s importance to Mexico is also evident in the scale of trade between the United States and Mexico. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, trade in goods between the two countries reached $96.3359 billion in September 2026 , a 34.1% increase compared to the same month in 2025, when it totaled $71.8019 billion.

During the ninth month of this year, Mexico’s exports to its northern neighbor totaled $62,241.8 million, while the United States sold goods to Mexico worth $34,094.1 million.

According to González, the new Texas administration could help reduce some political frictions and create more favorable conditions for the economic relationship, although this does not mean that regulatory and trade challenges will disappear.

Some decisions by the incoming governor could have indirect effects on Mexican companies. As an example, the expert pointed to her opposition to data centers, an activity that represents opportunities for Mexican suppliers of equipment and components related to these facilities.

Consequently, he considered that companies should observe not only decisions directly linked to foreign trade, but also state policies that may affect investments, infrastructure and supply chains .

“We have to prepare, that’s for sure. It’s not enough to be in compliance now. We have to prepare for greater complexity in the future,” he said.

Thus, the change of government in Texas represents an opportunity to rebuild part of the relationship with Mexico, but its commercial scope will depend both on Hinojosa’s decisions and on the evolution of Washington’s economic policy and the negotiations of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) .

Democratic Congress puts pressure on Trump

The election results also have implications beyond Texas. In the midterm elections of November 3, 2026, Democrats gained control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate , which could provide a counterweight to Trump’s decisions during the second half of his term.

As of November 9, Democrats had won 54 seats in the Senate, while Republicans had won 44. In the House of Representatives, Democrats held 254 seats, while Republicans held 165.

This result reflects discontent among a portion of the American electorate with Trump’s policies, particularly regarding tariffs, the cost of living, immigration policy, and foreign policy decisions, González noted.

In trade matters, this scenario could open up opportunities for Congress to exert greater pressure on the Executive and question the use of presidential powers to impose tariffs.

However, the specialist clarified that the change in the legislative composition does not mean that the trade measures can be reversed immediately, since Trump retains executive powers that he has used to apply tariffs to different products and trading partners.

Furthermore, he cautioned that it should not be assumed that Democrats maintain a completely pro-free trade position, due to the influence of labor unions that have traditionally promoted measures to protect American jobs and production.

USMCA and China at the center of the discussion

In this context, the review of the USMCA will continue to be one of the main factors for Mexican companies , regardless of the change of government in Texas.

González explained that one of the central objectives of the negotiations will be to increase added value in North America and reduce dependence on China in regional supply chains .

This process should be carried out gradually and with planning that considers the capabilities of each industry, since establishing restrictions in an accelerated manner could raise production costs and cause disinvestment.

“No matter how much you want to promote more added value, it has to be done slowly, planned, with time, and in accordance with the reality of each industry,” he stressed.

The specialist also warned that Mexican companies should review their exposure to inputs from China, particularly given the possibility that stricter rules of origin or restrictions on certain components within supply chains may be established during the treaty review.

This is in addition to other regulatory factors, such as changes in the designation of importers in the United States, the use of bonds and the greater auditing powers of the Customs and Border Protection Office (CBP) .

Therefore, he recommended that companies anticipate different scenarios, review their compliance structures, identify alternative suppliers, and assess the impact that changes in the rules of origin could have on their operations.

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El cargo Texas shifts political course; Mexico awaits trade signals apareció primero en T21.

Inflation in Mexico resumed pressure during October 2026. The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) reported a monthly increase of 0.65%, bringing the annual rate to 3.75% , according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The result surpassed the monthly advance of 0.36% observed in October 2025, while annual inflation also placed above the 3.57% recorded in the same period last year.

The core inflation index , which excludes volatile goods and services or those whose prices are not determined by market conditions, rose 0.34% month-on-month . Within this index, goods prices increased by 0.22% and services prices by 0.44%.

On a monthly basis, the non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations— rose 1.75 percent . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased 2.35 percent, and energy and regulated tariffs rose 2.13 percent.

This is largely due to the conclusion of the subsidy for the summer season electricity tariff program in 18 cities across the country where the INPC has coverage.

The increase in inflation last October is mainly explained by a spike in the price of products such as green tomatoes with a rise of 35.58%, air transport with 26.36%, zucchini with 23.22%, electricity with 18.51%, tomatoes with 9.68%, LP domestic gas with 3.67% and eggs with an increase of 2.16% at a monthly rate.

In contrast, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were lemon with a drop of 16.53%, serrano chili with 8.98%, orangewith 8.90%, potato and other tubers with 6.29% and bananas with a monthly price decrease of 4.83%.

Among the states with the largest monthly increases in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) were Tabasco, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo . Meanwhile, Sinaloa, San Luis Potosí, and Nayarit were among the states with variations below the national average.

October’s result represented an increase from 3.45% last September, meaning that overall inflation has now risen for three consecutive months .

Despite this, inflation remained within the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) target range of 3% +/- 1% for the sixth consecutive month.

The benchmark interest rate is the base level that Banxico uses to set banks’ lending and savings rates. By lowering it, banks can reduce interest rates on loans (mortgages, personal loans, credit cards) and decrease the returns on some savings instruments. This makes borrowing money cheaper and investing in low-risk instruments less attractive, which can stimulate consumption and investment .

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El cargo NO RESPITE! INFLATION IN MEXICO RISES FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH IN OCTOBER apareció primero en T21.

Monterrey and Querétaro positioned themselves among the top emerging markets for data center development worldwide, with construction costs of $12.41 and $11.49 per watt, respectively, according to the 2026 Data Center Construction Index (DCCI) , prepared by the British multinational Turner & Townsend .

The study, which analyzes more than 500 projects underway or recently completed in 62 markets, placed Monterrey in 23rd position in the global ranking, while Querétaro came in 32nd. Both cities have lower costs than markets like Silicon Valley, USA, where the construction of this infrastructure reaches $15.01 per watt.

The measurement considers the average construction cost per watt of installed electrical capacity, which allows for comparison of the development costs of this infrastructure between different locations, regardless of the size of the facilities.

Energy and talent, challenges for expansion

The report identified the availability of electricity as one of the main obstacles to data center development. 56% of the experts consulted cited this factor as critical, while 52% indicated that the process of connecting to the electrical grid takes between one and two years, and 32% reported timeframes exceeding 24 months.

Adding to these difficulties is the availability of specialized personnel , since 81% reported moderate or severe limitations in finding workers with the required skills.

The growth of artificial intelligence is also changing the characteristics of projects. According to the study, 52% of experts predict that by 2027 most of their developments will be aimed at supporting workloads related to this technology , driving larger-scale installations and liquid cooling systems.

Supply chains, a factor in executing projects

André Rizzo , Director of Data Centers for Mexico and leader of Industrial, Science and Technology for Latin America at Turner & Townsend, highlighted that the location of Monterrey and Querétaro reflects the country’s geographic advantages and its access to cross-border markets. However, he also noted that developing megaprojects within established timeframes and budgets requires strengthening governance models, optimizing supply chains , and proactively managing energy connections.

In the regional context, Rio de Janeiro recorded a construction cost of $12.59 per watt, followed by São Paulo at $11.66. Below the Mexican markets were Montevideo, Santiago de Chile, and Bogotá , with costs of $9.89, $9.75, and $9.13 per watt, respectively.

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El cargo MONTERREY AND QUERÉTARO STAND OUT IN DATA CENTER CONSTRUCTION COSTS WORLDWIDE apareció primero en T21.