Mexican business confidence increased by 0.1 points in July 2026 compared to last June and decreased by 0.7 units year-on-year, according to the Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (IGOEC), which stood at 48.2 points.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , with this latest observation, the indicator has remained below the 50-point threshold for 17 consecutive months , reflecting pessimism among Mexican business owners.

By sector, construction saw the largest monthly gain, rising 0.9 points to 47.2 units. The company’s future economic outlook was the only component with a negative result, registering a decrease of 0.1 points.

The confidence of private non-financial services business owners increased by 0.3 units compared to last June, reaching 48.5 units, thus accumulating 10 consecutive months below the 50-point threshold.

The improvement was explained by a more favorable perception of the country’s current economic situation, which rose 1.4 points month-on-month; however, the right time to invest fell by 1 unit.

The Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) for manufacturing industries remained unchanged, holding steady at 48 points and marking 17 consecutive months below the 50-point threshold. The only component that registered a monthly decline (-1.4 points) was the “opportune time to invest” indicator.

In July 2026, the Trade ICE fell 0.6 points compared to the previous month, reaching 48.4 points. This marks the 17th consecutive month that the indicator has remained below the 50-point threshold.

The decline was due to less confidence about the right time to invest (-1 point) and the future economic situation of the company, which fell 0.9 units in the period.

In its annual measurement, the ICE for manufacturing industries fell 1.4 units; the construction sector advanced 0.1 points; the trade sector registered an increase of 1.2 units; and the private non-financial services sector fell 1.6 points.

Business confidence advanced in the seventh month of the year, after remaining unchanged in June, registering its second monthly increase in 2026, driven by construction.

According to Inegi, the IGOEC and the ICE are built with the results of the Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE), which presents the opinion of business executives from the manufacturing, construction, trade, and private non-financial services industries on the economic situation of the country and their companies.

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The decline in order volume and the timeliness of supplier input delivery influenced the monthly drop in manufacturing orders in July 2026, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi)  and the  Bank of Mexico (Banxico) .

In the seventh month of the year, the  Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM) stood at  50 units , which meant a decrease of 0.1 points compared to June 2026.

Conversely, the IPM, which presents the expectations and perception of business executives on the performance of the manufacturing sector in Mexico,  registered a positive performance in its annual measurement, with a slight increase of 0.2 points .

Within the indicator, monthly declines were recorded in two of the five components that make it up .

In July 2026, orders saw the largest decline  , falling 5.7 points compared to June. This was followed   by a decrease of 0.1 points in the availability of supplies from vendors .

Conversely, input inventories increased by 4.1 points on a monthly basis; while production and  total employed personnel  advanced by 3.8 and 0.2 units, respectively, on a monthly basis.

By activity groups, the transport equipment subsector fell 1.6 points year-on-year; while petroleum and coal derivatives, the chemical, plastics and rubber industry advanced 2.1 units year-on-year.

US tariffs have impacted the Mexican manufacturing industry by decreasing orders, especially for transportation equipment, which affects the country’s automotive sector.

This is compounded by an economy that is only just beginning to show signs of recovery. In the second quarter of 2026, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.51% after a contraction of 0.62% in the first quarter of the year.

“It is estimated that approximately two-thirds of the quarterly growth was due to the World Cup effect, which boosted retail trade and service consumption, while the rest of the growth was the result of a rebound effect after the contraction observed in the first quarter,” explained Grupo Financiero BASE .

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Kia Mexico announced a $649 million investment to strengthen its operations in Pesquería, Nuevo León, where it will produce the Kia EV3, the brand’s first electric vehicle assembled in Mexico and the first of this model manufactured outside of Korea.

The investment, which will be carried out between 2026 and 2028, is the most important made by the automaker in the country since the start of operations of its plant in 2016 and contemplates the generation of 500 new direct jobs this year and 1,500 by 2030.

During the Mexican government ‘s morning press conference, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard emphasized that the project strengthens the country’s manufacturing capacity at a time of uncertainty for the global automotive industry.

“This is great news because it allows us to produce an electric vehicle in Mexico with a number of very advanced and highly competitive features,” he said.

The official explained that the EV3 will begin production on August 4th and that the vehicle will start with a national content of around 27%, a percentage that will increase as the integration of local suppliers strengthens.

He also emphasized that the investment responds to one of the central objectives of the Mexico Plan , focused on increasing the national content of manufacturing production and attracting high value-added projects.

“In a time of such uncertainty regarding the automotive industry, tariffs and new rules, this decision means that this company is seeing productivity and investment opportunities in Mexico and is making a decision that means technology, jobs and economic activity,” he stated.

In addition to allocating more than $260 million to the new EV3 production line , Kia will invest in sustainable infrastructure within its manufacturing complex, including expanding its solar power park and building a second water recycling plant.

Andy Kim, president and CEO of Kia Mexico, stated that the investments are part of the company’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) strategy and are aligned with the objectives of the Mexico Plan.

“During these eleven years, thanks to the firm conviction of Made in Mexico for Mexico, Kia Mexico has grown in tandem with the Mexican economy,” he said.

For her part, Marianela Calderón, Director of Administration and Employee Experience, explained that the investments are based on four pillars: talent development, renewable energy, responsible water management, and electric mobility.

He explained that the plant is currently building a two-megawatt solar park, with a planned expansion to eight megawatts by 2030 , in addition to a new treatment plant that will allow the reuse of around 70% of the treated water used in operations.

The executive also highlighted the importance of the company’s supply chain, which includes more than 85,000 people in direct and indirect jobs, as well as the recent recognition of the Pesquería plant as one of the highest quality in the automotive industry on the continent.

Mexico, platform for the new generation of electric vehicles

Horacio Chávez, managing director of Kia Motors Mexico, stated that the project represents a strategic step to position the country within the transformation towards electric mobility.

“For the first time in our history, we will produce and market a fully electric vehicle in Mexico. This commitment is realized with the Kia EV3, which will be proudly made in Mexico,” he stated.

In addition to vehicle production, the project includes the development of charging solutions for homes, public spaces, and mobile roadside assistance using vehicle-to-vehicle charging technology, with the aim of facilitating the adoption of electric vehicles in the Mexican market.

Currently, the Pesquería plant is Kia’s only facility in Mexico. Since its opening in 2016, it has received an initial investment of one billion dollars and has contributed to the creation of more than 80,000 direct and indirect jobs.

With this new investment, the automaker incorporates Mexico into the global production of the EV3, a line that until now was manufactured exclusively in Korea, reinforcing the country’s position as a platform for the manufacture of new generation vehicles.

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Mexican exports showed strong dynamism in June 2026, driven mainly by the manufacturing industry, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced .

In the sixth month of the year, shipments abroad of Mexican products totaled 72 billion 551 million dollars (mdd) , a growth of 34.4% year-on-year, according to the Mexican Merchandise Trade Balance (BCMM).

These figures show a trade balance surplus of 4.09 billion dollars , compared to the 2.259 billion dollars reported last May.

The increase in the trade surplus between May and June stemmed from an increase in the non-oil trade balance surplus and an increase in the oil trade balance deficit.

For the first six months of 2026, the trade balance showed a surplus of nine billion 857 million dollars , the largest since comparable records have been kept.

According to the report, the increase in Mexican exports stemmed from a 34.1% rise in non-oil exports and a 43.4% increase in oil exports. Within non-oil exports, those destined for the United States increased by 27.2% year-on-year, while those destined for the rest of the world rose by 17.7% annually.

In June 2026,  the value of exports of manufactured products was 67 billion 219 million dollars , an increase of 35.3% year-on-year, with the mining and metallurgy products (40.9%), electrical and electronic equipment and appliances (19.7%), food, beverages and tobacco (14.5%) and automotive products (7.6%) registering the largest increases in the period.

Meanwhile, the annual growth in automotive product exports stemmed from increases of 7% in sales channeled to the United States and 11.3% in those directed to other markets.

This increase reflects the importance of the Mexican automotive industry, both in the North American region and in other parts of the world.

In the first six months of this year, the structure of the value of merchandise exports was manufactured goods with 91.3% , agricultural goods with 3%, non-oil extractive products with 2.9%, and oil products with 2.8 percent.

Imports step on the gas

Imports grew 28% year-on-year last June, totaling $68.461 billion , with a strong increase in intermediate goods, which advanced 30.9% to a total of $54.239 billion.

Imports of capital goods reached 4.829 billion dollars, an annual increase of 8.8%, which represented weak productive investment.

In the first half of 2026, the structure of the value of imports was intermediate goods with 79.9%, consumer goods with 12.8% and capital goods with 7.3 percent.

Import trends in June 2026 demonstrate Mexico’s reliance on imported goods for export growth. However, Mexico maintains a strong performance in its foreign trade, which has allowed it to navigate the uncertainty generated by global tariffs.

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The production value of construction companies in May 2026 grew 2.7% on a monthly basis , while in its annual comparison it registered an increase of 7.5%, according to the results of the National Survey of Construction Companies (ENEC), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In the fifth month of the year, on a monthly basis, construction -related works , especially those in the private sector, increased by 0.7 percent. Water, irrigation, and sanitation increased by 14.3%, achieving its second consecutive month of strong performance.

Transport works , such as the construction of passenger trains, recovered in May 2026, with a monthly increase of 9.3%, after the drop last April.

Regarding the number of people employed  in the construction sector, Inegi reported a monthly increase of 0.8% and an annual increase of 0.3%.

Hours worked showed mixed performance in May 2026. This item showed a 0.5% increase on a monthly basis, but had a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, reflecting a slight deterioration in this indicator.

Meanwhile, average real wages performed well, increasing by 0.3% monthly and 3.3% annually, which improved the income of construction workers.

Construction is one of the sectors that contribute to economic growth and job creation in the country, derived from private and public projects, such as railway works (Saltillo-Nuevo Laredo train), and the Economic Development Poles for Well-being , which will promote the construction of industrial parks in several states of the country such as Hidalgo, Michoacán and Guanajuato, among others.

However, despite the rebound shown last May, construction, like other industries, faces a slow recovery, so investments in the sector are viewed with caution and uncertainty, generated by internal factors such as a weak economy, and external factors, such as the United States tariff measures and the conflict in the Middle East, which have increased the cost of some important inputs for this industry, including steel, aluminum and PVC pipes.

According to the National Chamber of the Housing Development and Promotion Industry (Canadevi) , the conflict in the Middle East has increased housing construction costs in Mexico by up to 5%.

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Trade policies have become one of the main factors redefining global trade. Beyond tariffs, governments are increasingly resorting to instruments such as import restrictions, subsidies, and other protectionist measures that alter the functioning of global supply chains , according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) .

In its most recent update of the Trade Policy Activity Index (TPA) , developed by the WTO and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , it was indicated that trade regulatory activity continued to accelerate, reaching a new all-time high in early 2026 , the most pronounced since data collection began.

The indicator reflected that between January and May of this year, global trade policy activity nearly doubled its 2024 level and stood approximately 25% above its 2025 average, confirming that government intervention in international trade continues to intensify.

According to the document, this behavior reflects an increasingly frequent use of trade policy for objectives that go beyond the exchange of goods, such as industrial policy, economic security, and the protection of strategic sectors.

Economists from both organizations identified that the turning point began after episodes such as the US-China tariff escalation between 2018 and 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. These factors were compounded by trade tensions during 2025, which continue this year.

One of the report’s main findings is the shift in the composition of trade measures. While actions aimed at facilitating trade—such as simplifying customs procedures or reducing barriers—have lost momentum in recent years (with the exception of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, where they accounted for more than two-thirds of all measures taken), restrictive actions have become more prevalent .

The study indicated that tariff increases, quantitative restrictions, import bans, and other trade control mechanisms are the main drivers of the growth observed in the index.

The increase in trade measures is no longer concentrated in the major economies . Although G20 countries continue to register the largest spikes in activity, this behavior has spread to smaller economies, reflecting a transformation of the global trade environment .

According to the report, trade policy activity is expected to continue increasing throughout the rest of 2026.

For companies linked to logistics, transport and foreign trade, this scenario implies a more complex regulatory environment, where the ability to adapt supply routes, diversify suppliers and respond to regulatory changes will be increasingly crucial to maintaining competitiveness.

Trade policy decisions no longer only affect market access, but also the configuration of supply chains, operational resilience, and foreign trade costs.

The analysis comes in a context where the United States has imposed tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% ​​on imports from 60 trading partners, including Mexico, under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 on forced labor, further complicating international trade.

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The drop in the price of some agricultural products, such as tomatoes, essential in the Mexican diet, influenced the slowdown in inflation in the first half of July 2026, which stood at 3.10% at an annual rate ; however, the cost of air transport continues to put pressure on the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

“The year-on-year variation slowed down for seven consecutive fortnights, reaching its lowest point since the end of 2020,” explained  Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+)  in an analysis.

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported that the  core inflation index  —which excludes goods and services with high volatility or whose prices do not respond to market conditions—  rose 0.16% on a bi-weekly basis . Within this index, merchandise prices increased 0.11% and service prices rose 0.20%.

“The core index accelerated slightly and remains close to 4 percent. Within that index, the merchandise sector rebounded from its lows of April last year,” BX+ noted.

Meanwhile, the  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations—  fell 0.23% on a bi-weekly basis . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices dropped 1.50% , while energy and regulated tariff prices rose 0.03%.

The products with the largest price increases in the first half of July were air transportation (12.44%) and package tour services (6.22%), increases associated with the World Cup. Other products with price hikes during this period included oranges (6.02%), computers (4.52%), and potatoes and other tubers  (1.39%).

Meanwhile, the products with the greatest price decrease during the cycle were tomatoes with 13.18%, serrano peppers with a decrease of 5.17%, tomatillos with 3.24%, avocados with a drop of 2.59%, and LP domestic gas with 0.50% every two weeks.

According to BX+, the decline in the bi-weekly variation “was due to a further drop in agricultural products , mainly fruits and vegetables, within the non-core index. The variation in the core index was marginally higher than in the same period last year. Within this index, the increase in air transport and tour package prices stood out.”

Despite recent favorable readings, Grupo Financiero Ve por Más indicated that the inflationary outlook is still challenging , and therefore estimated that inflation will begin to rebound next month, “instead of continuing to move towards the Bank of Mexico ’s 3% target .”

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Amid a slowing economy, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) anticipated an annual decrease of 0.8% in Mexican manufacturing activity in June 2026 , according to the Timely Monthly Indicator of Manufacturing Activity (IMOAM).

In the sixth month of the year, according to information from Inegi, the IMOAM showed a value of  107.1 points , as an advance calculation of the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI) of the manufacturing sector.

The decline in manufacturing activity in June 2026 reflects a decrease in the industrial sector, one of Mexico’s economic engines.

According to Inegi itself, last May the physical volume of production in the country’s manufacturing industry had already registered a drop of 0.6%  on a monthly basis, and in its annual comparison the negative trend continued, showing a decline of 0.1 percent.

This resulted in a decrease in employment , which slowed by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. It also contributed to a drop in hours worked: 0.5% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year.

If the Inegi estimate for June is accurate, Mexican manufacturing activity would continue in negative territory .

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Mexico’s transport, postal and storage sector stood at  116.7 points in May 2026, an increase of 0.3%  compared to last April , according to the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), carried out by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

On an annual basis, the country’s logistics industry also showed positive performance, registering a 0.6% increase in its economic activity.

With these figures, the IGAE in the logistics sector showed a better performance than in April 2016, when it had a monthly growth of 0.1% and a drop of 0.2% in its annual measurement.

In general terms,  in the fifth month of 2026, the IGAE fell 0.3% on a monthly basis , although on an annual basis it increased 2% to stand at 107 points.

The monthly result of the IGAE in May marked the second decline of this indicator in the year.

Within the IGAE (Global Indicator of Economic Activity), primary activities  —agriculture and livestock—fell by 0.5 percent.  Secondary  activities—manufacturing and construction—declined by 0.8 percent. Conversely, tertiary activities—services such as transportation, postal services, and warehousing—increased by 0.2 percent in May 2026 compared to the previous April.

In its annual measurement, primary activities grew 7.7%, tertiary activities increased 2.6%, while secondary activities showed no variation, representing stagnation.

The IGAE allows us to understand and monitor the evolution of the real sector of the economy in the short term, so its measurement is key for economic decision-making.

Furthermore, it estimates the growth or contraction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as well as detecting the behavior of the productive sectors, which offers an overview of the Mexican economy and its impact on the finances of companies.

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Revenues in the storage services subsector amounted to  9.616 billion pesos (mdp) during May 2026, representing a slight increase of 0.87% compared to last April, when they totaled 9.533 billion pesos, according to statistics from the Manufacturing, Maquiladora and Export Services Industry (IMMEX) program, prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the report, in the fifth month of the year there were  233  establishments registered  in that subsector, and the number of people employed was 14,765 , a drop of 1.28% compared to April 2016.

Meanwhile, hours worked in May totaled 2,700 , representing a monthly decrease of 5.42 percent.  Average wages for workers in this subsector, who were directly employed by the company, reached 31,434 pesos per person, 0.47% less than in April.

Overall, in May 2026, the revenues of establishments participating in the IMMEX program totaled 693,939 million pesos , representing a slight increase of 0.40% compared to the same month of the previous year, when they totaled 691,123 million pesos. Of the total, 59.7% corresponded to revenues from the foreign market, reflecting the sector’s dependence on international demand.

With seasonally adjusted figures, in May of this year there were  6,520  establishments registered in the IMMEX program : 5,221 carried out manufacturing activities and the rest activities related to agriculture, fishing, commerce and services.

Baja California had the highest number of establishments (17.3%). It was followed by Nuevo León (13.8%), Chihuahua (9.3%), Coahuila (7.1%), Guanajuato (6.5%), Jalisco (6.4%) and Tamaulipas (6.2%).

Meanwhile, the number of employed personnel showed no change on a monthly basis, while in its annual measurement, jobs fell by 1.5 percent.

Hours worked fell 0.2% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year.

In May 2026, average real wages grew 1.1% monthly and showed an annual increase of 5.8%, representing an improvement in the income of workers in the sector.

By subsector, the manufacture of transport equipment  had the highest revenue, with 263,900 million pesos.

According to the results from May 2026, although the income of IMMEX establishments registered an annual increase, jobs and hours worked showed declines in their annual measurement; however, wages improved.

These figures come in a context where Mexican international trade has performed well. In May 2026 alone , the country’s exports totaled US$69.544 billion , representing a 25.4% increase compared to the same month in 2025, according to INEGI (Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography).

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