The review of the United States – Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) could extend for at least two more years and result in annual evaluations until 2028 before reaching a final agreement, estimated Paulina Anciola, deputy director of Economic Studies at Banamex .
During a discussion organized by Mundi , the specialist explained that the agreement includes a review in July 2026, at which time the three countries will have to decide whether to extend its validity for another 16 years. However, there is also the possibility of maintaining annual reviews while negotiations continue.
“There are about three possible scenarios regarding this review. The first would be that on July 1st, all three parties say, ‘we agree,’ and the treaty is extended for another 16 years. That’s what we think is unlikely to happen,” he noted.
Anciola explained that the second scenario would be that one of the countries decides to abandon the agreement , while the third contemplates successive annual reviews in case the parties do not reach a consensus on the future of the treaty.
“What we see right now as the most likely scenario from Banamex is annual reviews, at least until 2028,” he stated.
The economist explained that this mechanism could remain in place for up to 10 years as long as the three trading partners remain within the agreement. If there is no consensus at the end of that period, the treaty would expire .
According to Banamex, the uncertainty associated with the review process will remain present in the coming years, although investors have begun to adapt to a more complex decision-making environment.
Anciola believes that an automatic renewal in 2026 looks complicated due to the pressure exerted by the United States, since the discussion of the agreement is no longer limited to trade issues.
“Everyone was already expecting that it would be very difficult to have a clean review on July 1st and that it would be automatically renewed because of all the pressure we have seen from the United States, not only on trade issues, but it is now mixed with security issues, with migration issues, with trade issues,” he commented.
The specialist added that the administration of Donald Trump, President of the United States, could use the review process as a tool for political and commercial pressure on various fronts, so the uncertainty surrounding the agreement could extend beyond 2026.
“We believe that the review of the USMCA will be a process, not an event,” he concluded.
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