The EAX Index – which measures the average cost of maritime freight on the Asia > Mexico > West Coast of South America (WCSA) route month by month – shook up market benchmarks again in March of 2026.
What began as a start to the year with signs of adjustment and some normalization in maritime rates, closed the first quarter with an abrupt turn: the indicator, developed by Eternity Group Mexico , registered a triple-digit monthly rebound that reconfigures, at least temporarily, the reading on supply, demand and costs on the Asia-Mexico-WCSA route.
The data is compelling. The monthly EAX (March) reached $2,809 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) , representing a 102.96% increase compared to February. This not only reverses the decline observed at the beginning of the year—January had seen a 38.69% contraction—but also consolidates an upward trend whose main explanation lies outside the logistics market itself: the geopolitical factor.
Tensions in the Middle East have begun to significantly impact global transport operating costs . Rising fuel prices have put pressure across supply chains, increasing costs in all modes—sea, air, and land—and creating a domino effect that is ultimately reflected in spot rates. This environment has been enough to trigger an aggressive adjustment in freight rates, even in a context where the market’s structural fundamentals point in the opposite direction.
And that’s where the report’s main contradiction emerges. While tariffs are skyrocketing, capacity continues to grow. In March alone, 91,646 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) were added to the global market , with a significant contribution from CMA CGM , which added more than 40,000 TEUs through the entry of new vessels, including large-scale units such as ULCVs and Neo-Panamax ships. Under normal circumstances, this increase in supply would have put downward pressure on tariffs. However, the impact of energy costs has managed to neutralize that effect.
This decoupling is also beginning to be reflected in demand patterns in Mexico. Mexican Pacific ports received 629,475 TEUs in import services during the January-March period of this year, 3.9% less than in the same period of 2015, according to data from the maritime authority. The drop in volume contrasts with the increase in tariffs and reinforces the interpretation of a market where costs are outweighing demand fundamentals.
The tension between supply and price is also reflected in regional dynamics. On the Asia-ECSA (South American East Coast) route , the market showed unusual resilience: despite registering capacity surpluses exceeding 70,000 TEUs, tariffs did not decrease. On the contrary, the EAX-ECSA Index for this region reached $3,145 per FEU , with a monthly increase of 54.93 percent. This behavior reinforces the interpretation that the market, at least in the short term, is being more sensitive to operating costs than to capacity imbalances.
Meanwhile, the route to the west coast of South America and Mexico (WCSA + Mexico) is beginning to show signs of weakening after several weeks of upward pressure, according to Eternity Group Mexico. During the first days of April, the market struggled to maintain levels above $3,000 per FEU , establishing a technical barrier that anticipates potential adjustments.
Under this scenario, the short-term expectation points to a correction. Despite international volatility, the EAX index itself projects that during April FAK rates could stabilize in a range of between $2,000 and $2,700 per container, as the market processes the cost shock and additional capacity begins to exert greater pressure.
Thus, the EAX closes the first quarter as a barometer of the tensions currently dominating global trade: a market with oversupply , but governed by external variables that distort its behavior. The question is not whether there will be an adjustment, but when the weight of capacity will once again prevail over geopolitical noise.
Comment and follow us on LinkedIn: @Enrique Duarte Rionda / @GrupoT21
