In September 2026, the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , would have anticipated a monthly increase of just 0.1% and an annual increase of 3.7% for the Mexican economy .
These estimates show a growth outlook in their year-on-year comparison, although with a less dynamic monthly pace.
By economic activity groups, the tertiary sector —which includes trade, transport and storage, among other services— would register an annual increase of 4% , while the secondary sector , related to manufacturing, construction, mining and energy generation, would advance 3.6% compared to September 2025.
Meanwhile, the IOAE estimated an annual growth of 3.7% in the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) at an annual rate.
In their monthly comparison, both the IGAE and secondary and tertiary activities would show an advance of 0.1%, which points to a limited expansion rate at the close of the third quarter.
Logistics sector, among the indicators to follow
For supply chains, the performance of tertiary activities is relevant because they include services related to trade, transport and storage, whose demand is related to the movement of goods and the behavior of productive activity.
The estimated annual growth of 4% for this group points to a favorable environment in comparative terms. However, the projected monthly growth suggests that the pace of expansion could remain moderate .
Meanwhile, the estimated annual increase for secondary activities offers a signal about the behavior of industry and the production of goods, activities that generate transportation requirements for raw materials, components and finished products.
The IOAE provides a timely estimate of the behavior of the IGAE and its main activity groups up to five weeks before the publication of official figures. It does this by using econometric models that leverage the statistical relationship between economic activity and other variables available further in advance.
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