By Humberto Cruz and Alberto Milo
The 2027 Federal Expenditure Budget Project (PPEF) proposes a net expenditure of 10.6 trillion pesos , with an amount of 167 billion 075 million pesos (mdp) for the Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation (SICT) , and 81 billion 223 million pesos for the Ministry of the Navy (Semar) , with which the federal government maintains its commitment to the development of logistics infrastructure; however, when analyzing the same periods of six-year terms prior to that of President Claudia Sheinbaum (2021, 2015 and 2009), discrepancies emerge that impact the sector.
Although the amount represents a real increase of 5.4% compared to 2026, its growth is less than that observed in comparable exercises of past six-year terms: in 2021, in the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Branch 09 of the SICT (corresponding to infrastructure, communications and transport) increased 2.8%; in 2015, when the federal Executive was in charge of Enrique Peña Nieto, it increased 6.2% ; and in 2009, during the six-year term of Felipe Calderón, it grew 24.4 percent .
The percentage allocated to the Integrated Transportation and Communications System (SICT) also changed within federal spending. The proposed 167.075 billion pesos represent 1.57% of total net spending in 2027. In 2021, when public spending was recalibrated due to the COVID-19 pandemic and priority projects, the proportion was 0.89% of total federal spending (6.29 trillion pesos). The increase for 2027 reflects an expansion in sectoral allocations driven by the resumption and integration of the passenger and freight rail network, specifically for the Maya Train and the Interoceanic Corridor .
In 2015, the Federal Expenditure Budget was 4.71 trillion pesos. In percentage terms, the road and communications budget represented approximately 2.5% of total federal spending; whereas in 2009, the total federal budget slightly exceeded 3.4 trillion pesos, with infrastructure accounting for more than 2.2% of total spending.
In comparison, although the agency’s budget reaches a nominal maximum in 2027, its relative share of the federal budget is below that observed in the fiscal years 2009 and 2015.
The budget also reflects a shift in priorities. By 2027, the federal government plans to allocate 150,875.6 million pesos to the construction and commissioning of railway projects, while 24,121.2 million pesos are earmarked for highways and roads , in addition to 3,598.8 million pesos for bridges and interchanges.
These last two items represent 16.6% of the SICT’s budget . In total, road and highway infrastructure absorbs a small fraction of the agency’s more than 167 billion pesos, with a greater allocation directed towards the railway sector.
This budget imbalance becomes significant when considering that 85% of goods nationwide and over 90% of passengers travel on the federal road network . Allocating just over 27.7 billion pesos to roads, highways, and bridges, compared to the budget for trains, demonstrates the prioritization of modernization and new projects in the Mexican rail sector over the maintenance of the federal highway network.
For users and transport companies facing rising fuel costs, coupled with risks of accidents and insecurity on the roads, the allocated amount is limited compared to the operational demands of the country’s supply chains.
Marina gains weight
Another significant movement appears in the Secretariat of the Navy (Semar) , which would have 81,223 million pesos in 2027. The amount represents an increase of 19.4% compared to 2026 and is equivalent to 0.76% of net federal spending.
The historical comparison shows a significant expansion. In 2021, the Navy received 35,476.7 million pesos, equivalent to 0.56% of federal spending; in 2015 it was 27,025.5 million pesos, or 0.58% of spending; and in 2009 it totaled 16,059.3 million pesos, 0.53% of the budget.
The proposed budget for 2027 is 2.3 times that of 2021 and more than five times that of 2009. However, the comparison must take into account that the responsibilities of the Navy have expanded, particularly in port and customs matters.
Physical infrastructure
The 2027 Economic Package proposes that physical investment —railway infrastructure, highways, hydraulic works, energy and other items— will increase 3.5% annually, equivalent to 2.6% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) .
In 2021, federal physical investment contracted and was concentrated on megaprojects such as the Dos Bocas refinery, the Maya Train and the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) , leaving little room for conventional public works in states and municipalities, with public investment levels that hovered around just 2.5% of GDP.
In 2015, physical investment was marked by the push for large public-private partnership projects and toll highways, at a time when public investment as a proportion of GDP reached levels close to 3.5% or 4%, although heavily dependent on oil revenues.
In 2009, in response to the global recession, the federal government activated countercyclical funds focused on public works projects, including highways and hydraulic infrastructure, temporarily increasing physical investment as a proportion of GDP to mitigate unemployment and boost the domestic economy.
When comparing the performance of physical investment in infrastructure against the recommendations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , Mexico faces a structural lag.
While international organizations and studies by the International Transport Forum (ITF-OECD) suggest that emerging economies maintain sustained infrastructure investment of between 4% and 5% of their GDP to close competitiveness gaps, reduce logistics costs and adequately support the flows derived from nearshoring (relocation of production lines), Mexico has historically remained in a range of public investment between 2% and 3% of GDP.
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