Mexico could have an economic growth of 1% in 2026 , which would mean a decrease from the 1.2% proposed by Grupo Financiero BASE in a previous review, as explained by Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis of this institution.
In the webinar “Economic Outlook, GDP Estimate for the First Quarter of 2026” , the specialist considered that, in a pessimistic scenario, the country’s economic growth would be 0.60%, and in an optimistic environment it would advance 1.45%, derived from various factors, including the economic spillover from the World Cup.
The decline in the three groups of economic activities – primary, secondary and tertiary – which contributed to the 0.8% quarterly decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) gives signs of what he called a “stagnation trap” , caused by the weakening of institutions, increased informality, a drop in fixed investment and a decline in productivity.
“The quarterly drop in GDP was indeed sharp, and although we expect a rebound in the second quarter, this would be largely due to the World Cup, which we believe will add 0.15 percentage points to GDP through tourism and additional consumption,” he explained.
The analyst considered that the low growth of the Mexican economy is not a temporary situation, but a structural one , which is reflected in a high rate of informality in employment that, as of last March, stood at 54.85 percent.
Regarding private consumption , which is one of the indicators of GDP, Siller explained that in 2025 this sector closed with an increase of 1.20%, the lowest since 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. “This year consumption started off on the wrong foot, with a drop of 1.55% compared to December 2025.”
By 2026, the financial institution forecasts that private consumption will grow between 1.8% and 2.2% , driven by the World Cup and a greater number of tourists arriving in Mexico for the sporting event.
Gross fixed investment ( machinery and equipment for the production of goods and services) also declined at the start of 2026. According to figures presented by Siller, this indicator fell 14% compared to 2024, when it reached its historical peak. He noted that in 2025, gross fixed investment decreased by 6.5%, and the projection for 2026 is a further decline of 2%.
“There weren’t two consecutive years with declines, something we hadn’t seen since 2019, when Mexico was in a slight recession, and 2020 due to the pandemic,” he emphasized.
Regarding Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico, he noted that although historical high levels have been reached, it should be considered that a large percentage has been for reinvestment.
At the close of 2025, Mexico received $40.871 billion in FDI, which represented a growth of 10.8% compared to the FDI received in 2024, when it was $36.872 billion, according to figures from the Ministry of Economy .
According to Siller, 67.65% of FDI in 2025 was for reinvestment of profits , 14.30% intercompany accounts , and 18.05% was for new investments .
Regarding the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , the specialist said that, although there is a lot of uncertainty, “I think that in the end it will not end badly, unless there are political issues that stop this trade relationship.”
On another topic, he specified that since last year, computer equipment has been Mexico’s top export. “If this product hadn’t grown so much last year, at a rate of 144%, Mexican exports would have fallen by 0.54 percent.”
“But there are several risks. Computer equipment is not a long-term guarantee. To begin with, Mexico is not the main supplier of this product to the United States; that distinction belongs to Taiwan. In fact, for many months we were the main supplier, but Taiwan has now overtaken us. Taiwan accounts for 45% of total U.S. imports of this product, while Mexico accounts for 31%,” he stated.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , Mexican exports totaled 70 billion 727 million dollars (mdd) in March 2026 , a growth of 27.7% compared to the same month of 2025.
Regarding inflation, he estimated that it will close this year at 4.2 percent . “Inflation was already expected last year. The truth is that Mexico was fortunate with the reduction in non-core inflation, because we know that non-core inflation is very volatile; even more so if we add factors such as public insecurity in Mexico, which has reduced fruit and vegetable harvests, increasing their price. On the other hand, the increase in energy prices due to the war in Iran is also a latent threat; this has caused consumer inflation to rise in Mexico,” he emphasized.
It is worth remembering that inflation in Mexico stood at 4.59% at an annual rate in March 2026 , driven by a rise in agricultural products and services such as air transport, according to data from Inegi.
According to Banco BASE’s estimates, the Mexican economic outlook is not encouraging, although there are indicators showing a slow recovery that could improve the situation in the second quarter of the year.
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