The uncertainty of 2025, driven by a slowing economy and US tariffs , could represent an opportunity for Mexico in 2026, with events such as the World Cup and the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) impacting the country’s economic performance.
The discussion “Opportunities for the Mexican Economy and Foreign Trade in 2026 ,” organized by Mundi , included Gabriela Gutiérrez Mora, national president of the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) ; Guillermo Bernal, director of Public Affairs at the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico (AmCham Mexico) ; Diego López Tamayo, senior economist at BBVA Research ; and Sonny Tabares, VP of Risk and Credit at Mundi.
In the dialogue, the specialists agreed that the review of the USMCA, which will take place next July, will be a turning point for the Mexican economy .
In that sense, Guillermo Bernal considered that free trade will no longer be as it is currently conceived, but local content offers the opportunity to keep Mexico attractive with good industrial policy management .
He clarified that the trilateral trade agreement is under review, not being renegotiated, “and will continue to be key to providing certainty within a co-production system where, just as we are the main seller to the United States, we are also its main buyer.”
The event highlighted that among the possible scenarios being considered are the renewal of the USMCA for an additional 16 years or, if no consensus is reached, annual reviews for a decade ; in addition, discussions on stricter rules of origin are anticipated, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors , as well as greater pressure to limit Chinese inputs in regional value chains.
It is worth remembering that Mexico registered a positive performance in its trade balance, going from a deficit of 18 billion 541 million dollars (USD) in 2024 to a surplus of 771 million USD in 2025, reaching historical highs in total exports with 664 billion 837 million USD, and in total imports with 664 billion 066 million USD.
Moderate economic growth
The IMEF’s economic outlook warns of a scenario of insufficient growth, persistent inflation and weak investment , with a moderate forecast of 1.3% for 2026.
This figure is similar to that presented by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) in its survey on expectations (1.30%), as well as that predicted (1.2%) by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , but below that projected (1.5%) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .
The IMEF survey respondents estimate that inflation will close the year at 3.95%; the same figure as the Survey on Expectations of Private Sector Economic Specialists by Banxico, while BBVA Research anticipated a general and core inflation of 3.8 percent.
“ Economic growth requires coordinated efforts between the public and private sectors to launch strategic projects and strengthen our industrial potential. Although exports remain dynamic, we are already seeing some nuances due to the impact of tariffs , particularly on auto parts. Energy will be a central focus in the USMCA discussions and in industrial policy,” emphasized Diego López.
World Cup, an economic showcase
Experts agreed that the impact of the 2026 FIFA World Cup will extend beyond the immediate economic benefits and temporary employment in the service sector. The event is anticipated as a strategic catalyst that will strengthen Mexico’s international profile , solidifying its position as a priority destination for new investments.
“The 2026 FIFA World Cup puts us on the radar for foreign investment; the challenge is to turn that visibility into resilient, long-term growth,” Sonny Tabares emphasized.
Investment and employment, with challenges
According to the Ministry of Economy (SE) , at the close of the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), Mexico reached a historic record of 40,906 million USD of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), however, the challenge is that this flow depends, to a large extent, on the reinvestment of profits and not on new capital.
The above highlights a critical opportunity cost: as long as legal uncertainty and the lack of energy infrastructure persist , the country will continue to attract capital by inertia instead of attracting fresh investments that are currently moving towards other competitive markets.
Regarding jobs, BBVA Research identified that formal employment grew 1.3% in 2025, but fell to only 0.3% when excluding workers from digital platforms.
According to the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) , 2025 saw a record high of 23.9 million jobs; however, the creation of 278,697 jobs represented the second weakest performance in more than two decades.
The Mexican labor market remains far from solid dynamism, as the slowdown in investment and the lack of business confidence not only limit the figures, but also represent a direct social cost: the inability to generate high-quality jobs that will drive true prosperity for Mexican families in 2026.
In a 2026 where uncertainty persists, Mexico has competitive advantages that it must take advantage of to boost its economic growth, such as its strategic location and the skilled workforce it has.
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