In the fourth quarter of 2024, global merchandise trade remained stable, suggesting further growth in the first months of 2025, although increased uncertainty surrounding trade policy and the prospect of new tariffs could impact trade in the medium term, the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer warned .
The indicator, which provides real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade in relation to recent trends, stood at 102.8 , according to its latest reading, virtually unchanged from the 102.7 recorded last December.
According to the WTO, barometer values above 100 indicate an upward trend, while values below 100 suggest that merchandise trade has fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
In this regard, the agency indicated that all the indices comprising the barometer are currently at or above the trend.
Export orders reached a value of 101.0 , while electronic components reached 102.3 and raw materials 101.6 .
While the automotive product indexes reached 105.5 , container shipping reached 103.7 , and air cargo 102.7 , meaning they are above trend to varying degrees.
“Export orders, typically the most predictive component of the barometer, remain close to the reference value of 100. This indicator should be closely monitored for any signs of an emerging trade slowdown,” the WTO noted.
The multilateral organization noted that in the third quarter of 2024, the latest period for which WTO data is available, the volume of world merchandise trade continued to recover from the 2023 trade decline, with year-on-year growth of 3.3 percent .
“Performance in the first three quarters of last year was in line with the WTO’s most recent trade forecasts, which projected trade volume growth of 2.7% for the whole of 2024. Although the global average remained stable, there were some significant regional disparities in the growth of goods trade,” he explained.
Along these lines, he noted that European exports and imports were much weaker than expected, while Asian exports and North American imports exceeded expectations.
The WTO estimated that growing uncertainty over trade policy may have temporarily boosted trade, as businesses and consumers “bring imports forward in advance of potential measures, possibly reducing demand later in the year. As a result, the barometer index should be interpreted with caution.”
It’s worth remembering that US President Donald Trump has launched a tariff war with several countries. He imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico’s steel and aluminum exports to the United States, as well as other nations. Meanwhile, he’s keeping a similar tariff on Mexican products covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on hold until April 2.
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