The World Trade Organization (WTO) placed the multilateral trading system at a turning point , given the changes in the global economic structure, the increase in government interventions and geopolitical tensions, such as in the Middle East, which have complicated cooperation between countries.
According to the World Trade Report 2026 , strengthening multilateral rules could increase global GDP by 2.9% and exports by 17.9% by 2050. In contrast, further erosion of cooperation could lead to reductions of between 5% and 10%, depending on the scenario.
The figures represent various possible scenarios for the future performance of the global economy. The WTO’s objective is to assess the economic costs of greater fragmentation compared to the potential benefits of deepening trade cooperation.
In the context of strengthening the multilateral system, the organization envisioned greater market openness, new disciplines for trade and digital services, an expansion of membership, and rules that would reconcile trade openness with security concerns.
In contrast, the scenario termed “geofragmented world” envisioned an economy organized around geopolitical blocs. Under this scenario, global GDP would decrease by 5.1% and exports by 18.6% . In a scenario where multilateral cooperation was replaced by a network of free trade agreements, the reductions would be 6.9% and 26.9%, respectively.
For least developed countries (LDCs), which currently account for less than 1% of global trade, the difference would also be significant. The WTO estimated that, under a strengthened multilateral framework, their GDP could increase by 7.7%, primarily due to lower tariffs and trade costs .
This warning is particularly relevant because, despite changes in the trade architecture, WTO rules still cover a significant portion of global trade. Around 72% of world merchandise trade continues to be conducted under most-favored-nation (MFN) conditions , a principle designed to prevent discrimination between trading partners.
Mexico facing the challenge of global trade
For Mexico, the discussion has a particular relevance to supply chains. In 2025, the country’s merchandise exports totaled $664,837.2 million , a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) . Meanwhile, imports totaled $664,066.2 million, an annual increase of 4.4%. Furthermore, the United States accounted for 81.9% of Mexican merchandise exports that year.
This concentration does not mean that Mexico’s trade with the United States operates exclusively under most-favored-nation rules, due to the existence of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) . However, it demonstrates the degree of integration of the Mexican economy with North America. In this context, greater trade fragmentation can translate for companies into more requirements, higher compliance costs, and the need to manage different rules of origin, tariffs, and market access conditions.
The effects also extend to logistics. When trade rules multiply or markets are divided into blocs, companies must adjust routes, suppliers, inventories, and distribution systems to meet different regulatory requirements. The WTO noted that global value chains, digitalization, and artificial intelligence have changed the nature of trade, while geopolitical tensions add pressure to a system designed under diverse conditions.
The report identified four factors behind this transformation: changes in economic power, greater government intervention through industrial policies and other measures, the transformation of trade through digitalization and global value chains, and increased geopolitical tensions.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated: “As members move forward with WTO reform, this challenging time for the trading system has the potential to become a turning point for renewal and revitalization. The World Trade Report explains, with factual rigor and historical depth, the system’s achievements and the areas where its mechanisms are currently under pressure.”
According to the report’s findings, preserving the benefits of the system involves updating cooperation to maintain elements such as openness, predictability, and common rules in an increasingly complex business environment.
“The system has faced challenges before and has been able to renew and revitalize itself. We can do it again,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
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