The Mexican automotive sector closed 2025 in an adverse economic environment and faces 2026 under a climate of high uncertainty , particularly due to the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA) , warned Guillermo Rosales, executive president of the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors (AMDA) .
The weakening of the market , he explained, is not due to an isolated event, but rather to a combination of various economic indicators that have been deteriorating over the past year. Among these, he highlighted gross fixed investment, which has fallen for 13 consecutive months, as well as the decline in business confidence.
Adding to this internal context is the uncertainty in the international environment, particularly due to adjustments in the trade relationship with the United States and the review process of the USMCA, which will be decisive for the sector’s performance in 2026, Rosales noted.
In their opinion, this scenario has directly influenced companies’ investment and fleet renewal decisions.
The impact of this environment was strongly reflected in market behavior during 2025. According to the CEO of AMDA , the sector registered a 31% drop, which meant that one in three vehicles were not sold compared to 2024, with negative effects on manufacturing, the distribution chain, the production of auto parts and the legal environment that the industry requires to operate.
For 2026, Rosales anticipated that a recovery that would allow overcoming the previous year’s decline is not expected; however, the outlook would be less serious , particularly in the heavy vehicle segment , where an increase of close to 10% in sales is projected, although still in a context of caution.
The review of the USMCA and the handling of potential tariffs will be, in this sense, the factors that will have the greatest impact on the sector’s performance this year.
Industry representatives stressed the need for this process to begin not with the imposition of tariffs, but with the preservation of the free trade system that has governed trade relations in North America.
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