The threats of the President of the United States, Donald Trump , ended up being fulfilled, however, in Mexico they did not believe him because the imposition of tariffs was seen as “irrational,” considered Sergio Kurczyn , director of Economic Studies at Banamex , who added that in the world they also did not believe that Trump would carry out this action, so he estimated that the uncertainty about the tariff measure will prevail.
At the Banamex Dialogues event , Kurczyn said that in light of this situation, the forecast had to be changed and negotiations were reached with the Mexican government, which involves the deployment of 10,000 members of the National Guard on the country’s northern border. “The world did not believe Trump and neither did Mexico, because we see him as quite irrational,” he added.
Regarding the tariffs imposed by the northern neighbor on China, the specialist said that they are limited, which shows willingness to negotiate with Trump . He also explained that Mexico is a strong ally for the United States in confronting China.
In this regard, he recalled that in the past the imposition of tariffs on that Asian country was positive because Mexico gained nearly two percentage points of market share with the United States, although he indicated that currently there will be more pressure because, among other reasons, investments from China in Mexico will be discouraged.
He said the tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China are “eroding” the United States’ international leadership and also represent a violation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) .
On the economic front, he said that the global economy “is doing very well,” with growth of around 2.7% in the last two years, but the American economy “is doing better,” with a growth of 2.1% expected in 2025.
He pointed out that inflation in the United States has been declining and estimated that the Federal Reserve can lower interest rates even further, which are expected to be cut two more times and end at 4 percent.
The labor market in our northern neighbor is also “doing very well,” he said, noting that Mexican rates are following those of the United States.
For her part, Nydia Iglesias , director of Political Analysis at Banamex, considered that in the first few months “things have gone very well” for President Claudia Sheinbaum , according to survey results.
She said that this has been possible because she has been able to capture the trust of Mexicans, which has increased due to her closeness to the Fourth Transformation project, and because she has made changes in security policy.
“Sheinbaum has done well 100 days after her government began, even though she is not as charismatic as Andrés Manuel López Obrador, but she has inspired credibility and generated trust,” he said.
Iglesias said that after last weekend, which was complicated by the issue of tariffs, Sheinbaum showed herself to be in good spirits.
He added that Donald Trump has acted against the US Constitution , as well as international organizations, and has even hurt his own country. “Trump is capable of inflicting some damage on himself, even on the US economy, in order not to fail to fulfill any promises,” he stressed.
Mexico, throughout the Trump administration, will be facing potential crises, in the face of which Sheinbaum’s government could be strengthened; in addition, her administration should take advantage of the situation to warn of risks due to judicial reform , she said.
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