The recent signing of the executive order Unleashing American Energy by Donald Trump, President of the United States, is causing concern in various sectors , especially in the automotive industry. According to Miguel Elizalde, director of the consultancy Mobility Sustainable , this action seeks to eliminate incentives established in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which promoted the acquisition of electric vehicles and the development of charging infrastructure.
“In this case, you have a series of actions, one of those actions is literally ending or concluding the support for the incentives that were included in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, where incentives were granted for the acquisition of electric vehicles and incentives for the charging infrastructure of these electric vehicles. It was not exclusively for heavy vehicles, it was for all electric vehicles. So what does this mean? Will it have an impact? Yes, it will have an impact, but it has to be properly dimensioned,” said Elizalde.
The specialist stressed that Trump’s policies do not prohibit the sale of electric vehicles; however, the elimination of incentives could reduce sales and delay global decarbonization goals .
“It will slow down the transition to zero emissions. It will not stop it, it will slow it down, and at least, in our understanding, it would be these four years of the Trump administration,” Elizalde explained.
Regarding Mexico , Elizalde said the impact will be indirect. Mexico makes electric vehicles, but it also produces diesel and gasoline engines, so it could adjust to changes in demand.
“If someone stops buying electric cars, they will buy diesel, and Mexico makes both. The impact could be more noticeable in the plants that currently produce electric vehicles for export,” he said.
Although a slowdown in exports to the United States is expected , Elizalde considered that Mexico’s leadership in the production and export of vehicles will not be significantly compromised, as long as there are no renegotiations of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) or new tariff measures.
Heavy vehicle production
In the cumulative period from January to December 2024 , heavy vehicle production showed a drop of 4.3% compared to the same period in 2023. Diesel vehicles, which continue to be the most produced, experienced a decrease of 4.7%, while natural gas vehicles stood out with an increase of 115 percent.
While the trend is positive for cleaner vehicles, US policies could slow progress towards the transition to zero emissions, Elizalde warned.
Export of heavy vehicles
Regarding heavy vehicle exports, during 2024 they also reflected a drop of 10.2% compared to 2023, with diesel vehicles being the most exported, with a drop of 10.6 percent.
However, natural gas vehicles saw a significant increase of 76.9 percent. Trump’s policies , which seek to eliminate incentives for electric vehicles, could affect this trend towards exporting cleaner vehicles.
Emissions and the global challenge
The specialist also highlighted the importance of understanding the global context. The United States generates 12% of global emissions, and of that percentage, transportation represents 40 percent. Within this sector, heavy vehicles contribute 16 percent.
“Heavy vehicles in the United States account for approximately 0.75% of global emissions. If we eliminated all heavy vehicles, the impact on global emissions would be minimal, around 0.2%,” Elizalde said.
However, these policies could also slow down global emissions reduction strategies , given the weight of the United States in the world economy.
“And it may take a little longer to achieve the emissions reductions that the United Nations had at a global level , but the United States no longer has those goals,” Elizalde explained.
Elizalde also addressed the possibility that Trump’s policies could be revised or adjusted depending on their economic effectiveness.
“These measures are designed to strengthen the US economy. If at some point they see that they are not working, they could modify them. In addition, some states could decide to maintain incentives at the local level,” he said.
The expert concluded that although Trump’s actions represent a temporary obstacle, the global automotive industry is committed to the transition to cleaner technologies.
“Electric vehicle sales will not disappear; they will simply slow down. Innovation and market demand will continue to drive this change,” he concluded.
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