The victory of Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the US midterm elections opens a new political stage in Texas, one of Mexico’s main trading partners, and generates expectations about a possible change in the economic and border relationship between the two parties.
For Adrián González, president of Global Alliance Solutions , Hinojosa’s arrival could represent a more favorable environment for trade , particularly due to the possibility of a less confrontational stance towards the immigration and trade policies promoted by US President Donald Trump.
However, it is still premature to anticipate concrete changes in Texas trade policy, because there is not enough clarity on the positions of the next governor on foreign trade since the main tariff decisions fall under the federal level.
“I believe that, in general, there can be an improvement due to this rebalancing of Trump’s policies, which have indeed damaged the relationship between the countries,” González commented in an interview with T21.
During his campaign, Hinojosa promised to protect “Texans’ wallets” by monitoring large corporations to prevent them from arbitrarily raising food prices. This could affect some Mexican companies operating in Texas, particularly in the food sector, such as Bimbo and Gruma.
According to her campaign proposals, published on her website, Gina Hinojosa proposed reducing the supermarket bill.
“Gina will prohibit price gouging and fight to ensure that food prices reflect real market costs, not speculation designed to squeeze more money out of Texas workers. She will make sure that large corporations cannot change prices on the shelves,” the website reads.
This could impact companies like Chedraui, through its chains El Super, Smart & Final and Fiesta Mart, which have facilities in Texas.
The political change is occurring in a state whose economic relationship with Mexico carries significant weight. According to the Ministry of Economy (SE) , using data from the U.S. Census Bureau , total trade between Texas and Mexico reached $302.544 billion in 2025 , representing a 7.6% increase compared to 2024. Texas imports from Mexico totaled $177.39 billion, while exports to Mexico amounted to $125.154 billion.
“During 2025, Texas was the state with the highest bilateral trade between Mexico and the United States. Furthermore, it was Texas’s largest supplier (43.1%) and the main destination for its exports (27.8%),” the Ministry of Economy explained.
This trade dependence explains why, regardless of partisan differences, Texas has maintained an interest in preserving trade with Mexico . González noted that even during the administration of Republican Greg Abbott, there was an intention for Trump to moderate his trade decisions, although the state government did not necessarily distance itself from the policies of the U.S. president.
In that regard, he considered that Hinojosa could assume a more moderate and trade-friendly position , particularly on issues related to border crossings, Mexican investments, and the relationship with Latino communities.
One example that illustrates the impact of political decisions on economic activity was the suspension of border trade operations due to immigration measures during the Abbott administration, the specialist noted. Therefore, he indicated that it would be less likely that an administration led by Hinojosa would again resort to this type of action to exert pressure on immigration matters.
It is worth remembering that in the midterm elections of November 3, 2026, Democrat Gina Hinojosa obtained 5,232,690 votes, or 52.8%, for the governorship of Texas, compared to 4,525,990 votes for Republican Greg Abbott, or 45.7%.
A commercial link that can hardly be ignored
Texas’s importance to Mexico is also evident in the scale of trade between the United States and Mexico. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, trade in goods between the two countries reached $96.3359 billion in September 2026 , a 34.1% increase compared to the same month in 2025, when it totaled $71.8019 billion.
During the ninth month of this year, Mexico’s exports to its northern neighbor totaled $62,241.8 million, while the United States sold goods to Mexico worth $34,094.1 million.
According to González, the new Texas administration could help reduce some political frictions and create more favorable conditions for the economic relationship, although this does not mean that regulatory and trade challenges will disappear.
Some decisions by the incoming governor could have indirect effects on Mexican companies. As an example, the expert pointed to her opposition to data centers, an activity that represents opportunities for Mexican suppliers of equipment and components related to these facilities.
Consequently, he considered that companies should observe not only decisions directly linked to foreign trade, but also state policies that may affect investments, infrastructure and supply chains .
“We have to prepare, that’s for sure. It’s not enough to be in compliance now. We have to prepare for greater complexity in the future,” he said.
Thus, the change of government in Texas represents an opportunity to rebuild part of the relationship with Mexico, but its commercial scope will depend both on Hinojosa’s decisions and on the evolution of Washington’s economic policy and the negotiations of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) .
Democratic Congress puts pressure on Trump
The election results also have implications beyond Texas. In the midterm elections of November 3, 2026, Democrats gained control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate , which could provide a counterweight to Trump’s decisions during the second half of his term.
As of November 9, Democrats had won 54 seats in the Senate, while Republicans had won 44. In the House of Representatives, Democrats held 254 seats, while Republicans held 165.
This result reflects discontent among a portion of the American electorate with Trump’s policies, particularly regarding tariffs, the cost of living, immigration policy, and foreign policy decisions, González noted.
In trade matters, this scenario could open up opportunities for Congress to exert greater pressure on the Executive and question the use of presidential powers to impose tariffs.
However, the specialist clarified that the change in the legislative composition does not mean that the trade measures can be reversed immediately, since Trump retains executive powers that he has used to apply tariffs to different products and trading partners.
Furthermore, he cautioned that it should not be assumed that Democrats maintain a completely pro-free trade position, due to the influence of labor unions that have traditionally promoted measures to protect American jobs and production.
USMCA and China at the center of the discussion
In this context, the review of the USMCA will continue to be one of the main factors for Mexican companies , regardless of the change of government in Texas.
González explained that one of the central objectives of the negotiations will be to increase added value in North America and reduce dependence on China in regional supply chains .
This process should be carried out gradually and with planning that considers the capabilities of each industry, since establishing restrictions in an accelerated manner could raise production costs and cause disinvestment.
“No matter how much you want to promote more added value, it has to be done slowly, planned, with time, and in accordance with the reality of each industry,” he stressed.
The specialist also warned that Mexican companies should review their exposure to inputs from China, particularly given the possibility that stricter rules of origin or restrictions on certain components within supply chains may be established during the treaty review.
This is in addition to other regulatory factors, such as changes in the designation of importers in the United States, the use of bonds and the greater auditing powers of the Customs and Border Protection Office (CBP) .
Therefore, he recommended that companies anticipate different scenarios, review their compliance structures, identify alternative suppliers, and assess the impact that changes in the rules of origin could have on their operations.
Comment and follow us on LinkedIn: @Humberto Cruz Moya / @GrupoT21
