Mexicans are beginning to show signs of recovery in their purchasing power. This is indicated by private consumption in the country’s households, which grew during April 2026 at both monthly and annual rates.

According to the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , private consumption advanced 0.1% in the fourth month of the year compared to last March, while  in its annual measurement it increased 2.1 percent .

Mexican consumers favored domestically produced goods and services, driven by the “Made in Mexico” label, which saw a 0.6% month-over-month increase. Conversely, they purchased fewer foreign goods, with purchases falling 1.5% month-over-month.

In its year-on-year comparison, spending on domestic goods and services showed no change, while spending on imported goods increased by 11.7 percent.

Private consumption is one of the main components of domestic demand, as it represents about 70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) , so its evolution is key to economic growth.

According to an analysis by México, ¿cómo vamos?, the April data shows a sign of moderation compared to the previous growth. Furthermore, annual growth continues to be concentrated in imported goods, while domestic consumption remains virtually stagnant.

“Looking ahead, it remains to strengthen household incomes through greater formal job creation and by promoting consumption,” the organization stressed.

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El cargo Spending in Mexican households shows recovery in April apareció primero en T21.

US tariffs and a cautious Mexican economy have not slowed exports in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), according to the  Quarterly Global Supply and Demand Indicators (ODGT)  and the  Quarterly Gross Savings Indicator (ITAB) report released Thursday .

According to the report, prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , in the period January-March 2026 the  global supply of goods and services (equal to global demand) increased 0.3% in real terms compared to the previous quarter.

Within the country, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 0.6%, and  imports of goods and services  grew by 2.2% on a quarterly basis.

In its year-on-year comparison, global supply increased 5.2% in Q1 2026: GDP increased 0.4% and imports of goods and services registered a rise of 16 percent.

According to Inegi, the Quarterly Global Supply and Demand provides information on the short-term behavior of the main macroeconomic variables of production, consumption, investment and foreign trade.

During the period under review, the agency reported that the components of global demand behaved as follows:  government consumption increased by 1.6%, and exports of goods and services grew by 0.8%. Private consumption decreased by 0.8%, and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) , that is, fixed investment, fell by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter.

On an annual basis, government consumption rose 3.3%; private consumption increased by 2.4%, and exports of goods and services rose 1.5%. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell by 3%.

The Quarterly Gross Savings Indicator represents the portion of income generated from domestic or foreign production that is not spent on final consumption goods and services. This allows economic agents to finance the acquisition of assets, explained INEGI.

In the first quarter of 2026, and with seasonally adjusted figures, gross savings , at current prices, grew 2.4% compared to the previous quarter; in turn, savings in the domestic economy increased 3.4% quarterly.

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These results occur in a context where inflation in Mexico shows a downward trend, standing at 3.94% at an annual rate during May 2026 , as well as a slow industrial recovery.

According to CIAL Dun & Bradstreet , a firm specializing in providing technological solutions and data, the Mexican economy faces opportunities and challenges that require macroeconomic discipline to sustain confidence and growth.

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Mexican economic activity could grow between 1.3% and 1.8% during 2026 , reflecting a relative improvement, although insufficient to compensate for the stagnation observed in 2025, according to estimates from the International Chamber of Commerce Mexico (ICC Mexico) .

According to the agency’s projections, this growth would be driven by the export sector , since the country continues to have a key comparative advantage with the rest of the world: preferential access —with zero tariffs— to the markets of the United States and Canada under the current framework of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , “a condition that acted as a ‘lifeline’ in 2025 and that could continue to sustain economic activity in the first half of 2026.”

“Until there is a clear definition on the future of the USMCA, the Mexican economy will continue to operate under the umbrella of the current treaty, which will allow for some stability in exports, although this advantage is not guaranteed in the medium term,” according to the analysis of the Economic Policy Group of ICC Mexico.

In December 2025,  the value of Mexico’s exports was 60,651 million dollars (USD), an annual increase of 17.2% , while the accumulated value for 2025 was 664,837 million USD , an annual growth of 7.6%, according to figures released by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

By July of this year, the review of the trilateral trade agreement will formally begin, a process that is anticipated to be long, complex and politically sensitive; in addition, it is estimated that there will be some changes, which have already been expressed by US authorities.

On January 28, Marcelo Ebrard, head of the  Ministry of Economy , and Jamieson Greer,  United States Trade Representative (USTR) , held a meeting in which they addressed a series of possible reforms to the trade agreement, including stricter rules of origin for key industrial goods.

In that regard, ICC Mexico indicated that the review could extend beyond 2026 , which would maintain high levels of uncertainty, particularly regarding investment.

Regarding private consumption , he projected that although it has remained relatively stable, this indicator continues to reflect the effects associated with uncertainty about US economic policy, the review of the USMCA and the international geopolitical environment, “so a vigorous recovery is not anticipated during the year.”

According to data from Inegi, private consumption in Mexico registered an increase of 0.8% during October 2025 compared to last September, and in its annual measurement it also increased 4.1%, derived from an increase in the acquisition of foreign products.

“Among the factors that could provide an additional boost —albeit a temporary one— is the celebration of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which could benefit tourism, services and trade, with a positive but short-lived impact,” he said.

Regarding inflation , ICC Mexico estimated that during some periods of 2026 it could be above 4 percent.

“This environment will lead the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to adopt a more cautious stance, anticipating only two additional interest rate cuts during 2026, which would bring the benchmark rate to close the year at 6.5%, slowing the pace of monetary easing previously observed,” he projected.

ICC Mexico predicted that the Mexican peso could remain relatively strong in the first half of the year ; however, as the review of the USMCA progresses, episodes of volatility would occur, so the exchange rate could close 2026 around 18 pesos per dollar , “under a base scenario without a clear definition of the treaty.”

The organization stressed that if a mutually agreeable agreement is not reached among the three countries that make up the USMCA, the treaty would not be terminated, as its legal validity extends until 2036.

“The mechanism provided for in the treaty itself stipulates that, in the absence of consensus among the three countries, annual reviews will be activated, while the agreement remains fully operational,” he explained.

Although the central scenario assumes that the treaty will eventually be ratified, the activation of annual review mechanisms, bilateral negotiations, or additional pressures that affect investor confidence cannot be ruled out.

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In the webinar “Economic Outlook: GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter (4Q25)”, the analyst indicated that in a pessimistic scenario, GDP would be 0.6% by the end of this year , while in an optimistic projection it could be 1.4 percent.

The specialist explained that despite the challenges posed by tariffs and other issues, Mexico avoided a technical recession in 2025, although it did fall into what she called a “stagnation trap,” resulting from weakened institutions, increased informality, a drop in fixed investment, and a decline in productivity.

Regarding Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) , he warned that although the flow of foreign capital has reached historic levels, with 40,906 million dollars (USD) in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), an increase of 14.46% compared to the same period in 2024, a record based on reinvestment of profits is not the same as one driven by new projects .

According to the analysis, new investments represented only 16.05% of FDI between January and September of last year, while in 2022 it was 45 percent.

Of the FDI in Q3 2025, the manufacturing sector was the main destination with 37.13%, and the manufacture of transport equipment was the most important subsector with 19.93% of the total FDI; meanwhile, the production of computer equipment was 6.35 percent.

Siller explained that 79.78% of FDI from the United States was reinvested profits, while only 11.86% was new investment. He indicated that Mexico can find greater market share in computer exports, a segment that grew by 89.25% in the January-November period of 2025.

However, the director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE said that Mexico does not have the plant capacity to produce more of these devices in order to continue advancing in this market.

He noted that the country was, for 20 consecutive months, the main supplier of computer equipment, “then Taiwan won, then Mexico regained market share, but in 2026 it is very likely that Mexico will remain in second place,” he said.

“With all this, Mexico is the United States’ main trading partner and the main supplier of U.S. imports, which is good news. However, this leads us to something that could be a cause for concern regarding the review of the USMCA. China remains the country with which the United States has the largest trade deficit, at $189 billion, but Mexico is very close, and this figure has been narrowing by 2025. In fact, in October the difference was around $15 billion,” he explained.

Regarding private consumption , Siller reported that this indicator showed a growth of 0.58% until October of last year, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when it registered a drop of 10.67 percent.

According to estimates from the financial institution, remittances are also expected to plummet by around 20% this year, due to an aggressive immigration policy and the deteriorating job market in the United States.

Regarding employment , Siller specified that 2025 marked a turning point for the Mexican labor market, showing a decline.

“We saw that in total employment, 1,057,970 jobs were created, of which 1,161,926 were informal jobs, which means that in formal employment, jobs were actually destroyed (-103,956). This is something that has only been seen in periods of recession in Mexico,” Siller pointed out, according to his shared graphs.

He pointed out that the above was generated by the economic stagnation, since there are not enough incentives, such as a good salary or better benefits, for companies to hire from the formal sector.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the informality rate rose from 54.27% in 2024 to 54.85% in 2025. “What does this mean? Well, it means that Mexico’s productivity fell, because the formal sector generated almost 75% of the total value of the economy, while the informal sector contributed 25%,” he emphasized.

Adding to this problem is the reduction in the number of employers , which totaled 1,029,280 last December. On an annual basis, this represents a drop of 25,667 employers, marking 18 consecutive months of decline.

USMCA Review

Regarding the USMCA, Siller stated that, according to various surveys conducted in the United States and in the US Congress itself, there is a trend indicating that they do want the trade agreement to continue, particularly Republicans, who are in favor of the USMCA.

He estimated that Canada would not withdraw from the treaty , although if that were to happen, it would not represent a concern for Mexico, “I think that this would even give it an opportunity to grow more, to obtain a greater market share.”

According to BASE estimates, Siller also ruled out the possibility of the United States withdrawing from the USMCA . “Furthermore, even if the United States were to withdraw from the trade agreement, trade between Mexico and the United States would not end.”

“What is very likely is that the review will become more of a renegotiation , but to the point that it won’t have to go through the United States Congress. They will want to make modifications to the rules of origin, the labor content, and the dispute resolution mechanism . Above all, we believe they will want to increase the rules of origin to 80%, and that there will be a transition period, just as there was from NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) to the USMCA, but now that transition period will include tariffs until companies are fully compliant,” he explained.

It is worth remembering that Marcelo Ebrard, head of the  Ministry of Economy , and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative (USTR) , held a meeting on January 28, in which they addressed a series of possible reforms to the trade agreement, including stricter rules of origin for key industrial goods.

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The increase in the acquisition of foreign products resulted in a 0.8% rise in private consumption in Mexico during October 2025 compared to last September, according to data from the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) , prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

This increase represented the  fourth best monthly advance of the IMCP in 2025, reflecting the positive evolution of household spending  on goods and services , despite the country’s economic uncertainty.

In the tenth month of last year, the indicator stood at  113.5 points . In its annual measurement, private consumption increased by 4.1% in the reference period.

According to seasonally adjusted figures and monthly rates,  consumption of  domestically produced goods and services  showed no change during the economic cycle . Goods fell by 0.2%, while services increased by 0.4%. As for imported goods, consumption rose by 6.6%  in October 2025 compared to the previous month.

On an annual basis, spending on domestic goods and services grew 1.2% and spending on imported goods increased 20.6%.

According to INEGI, “the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption measures household spending on consumer goods and services , both domestic and imported. This allows for monthly monitoring of the most significant component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) , on the demand side.”

Measuring private consumption is important because it represents the spending by Mexican families on the purchase of goods and services, making it a key indicator of the economy .

According to an analysis by BBVA Research , a moderate start to 2026 is expected for private spending, although a gradual recovery in consumption could be observed during the year, as the real wage bill strengthens and the uncertainty derived from US trade policies decreases.

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El cargo Imported products boost private consumption in Mexico during October apareció primero en T21.

The  Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP)  anticipated a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for August 2025, and estimated that it will not show any change at the annual rate, according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

For September, INEGI projected that the IOCP will rise by 0.1% monthly and 0.6% annually.

The IOCP estimates come in a context where inflation began to rise, reaching 3.57% annual rate last August, and 3.76% in September .

This reflects that consumers continue to exercise restraint when purchasing goods and services, driven by a complex economic landscape.

In response, Mexicans have adopted new forms of consumption, leaning toward lower-cost products and reducing their expenses .

“57% of Mexican consumers are buying products from cheaper brands, while 52% will start buying products with the “ Made in Mexico” seal , due to the threat posed by the United States’ tariff policy,” said the consulting firm Kantar .

According to INEGI, the IOCP aims to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption, which is one of the driving forces of the Mexican economy.

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El cargo Slight growth in private consumption in Mexico expected in August apareció primero en T21.

Private consumption, one of the driving forces of the Mexican economy, showed positive performance in April 2025, after having fallen 0.2% last March, despite the country’s economic slowdown.

According to the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , the  Monthly Private Consumption Indicator (IMCP)  registered an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous month, while, in annual terms, it had an increase of 0.7 percent .

This increase reflected the  positive evolution of household spending  on goods and services of national origin .

According to seasonally adjusted monthly figures, consumption of domestic goods and services grew 1.5% ; goods reported a  2% increase  , and services grew  0.7% .

Regarding imported goods, consumption decreased by  1%  in April of this year compared to the previous month.

On an annual basis, spending on domestic goods and services grew 3.1 percent, while spending on imported goods decreased 8.3 percent.

The recovery in consumption in Mexico in the fourth month of the year comes amid a context of rising inflation, reaching 4.51 percent in the first half of June.

According to estimates by the financial institution Banamex , general inflation could close the year at 4%, which would complicate the acquisition of goods and services, affecting consumption for the remainder of the year.

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Lower investment, as well as a possible recession and reduced employment in the construction and manufacturing sectors, will lead to a decline in Mexican consumption, Fitch Ratings believes , warning that the purchase of goods and services will remain weak through 2025.

According to an analysis by the rating agency, private consumption in Mexico has declined since December 2024, specifically with regard to goods and imports.

“Same-store sales (SSS) have slowed since the fourth quarter of last year, with sales growth falling to 2.5% in March 2025, from 5.4% the previous year, according to the National Association of Self-Service and Department Stores (ANTAD) ,” the report noted.

Demand for items such as clothing, appliances, and electronics, especially among low- and middle-income consumers, faces the greatest risk, he added.

The rating agency warned about the possible growth of consumer credit , which buyers could use to finance their purchases, which could lead to bad loans.

“Increased loan origination to support sales by retailers with financial divisions could lead to potentially higher non-performing loans by the end of 2025,” he stressed.

For non-discretionary items such as food, consumer preference is shifting toward discount formats and private-label products.

“Own-brand products now represent between 20% and 50% of sales in smaller store formats, compared to approximately 5% five years ago, indicating increased demand,” Fitch said.

Despite the anticipated adverse environment, the rating agency estimated that most retail and consumer companies are prepared to weather a cyclical downturn , “without facing widespread negative rating actions.”

“Revenue for most rated retailers is expected to grow by mid- to high-single digits in 2025-2026, driven by expansion into new markets and store format adjustments,” the firm noted.

Private consumption has fallen into a period of caution generated by the upward trend in inflation in Mexico, which stood at  4.42%  last May in its annual comparison and 4.51% in the first half of June , as well as by changes in the United States’ trade policy , which has increased the uncertainty when deciding on the acquisition of goods and services.

In this regard, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported that private consumption, which is one of the country’s economic drivers, fell 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025.

The slowdown in various industries and a persistent inflationary context have affected consumer confidence, which has led to some changes in its habits, according to Kantar .

According to the consulting firm, consumers are looking for more affordable and convenient options. Along these lines, the firm indicated that 60% prefer to eat at home, while 44% have sought ways to cut back on entertainment expenses outside the home.

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El cargo Consumption in Mexico will remain weak in 2025, Fitch Ratings predicts. apareció primero en T21.

According to the report, prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , in the period January-March 2025, the global supply of goods and services (equal to global demand) decreased 1.1% in real terms compared to the previous quarter.

Domestically, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.2%, and imports of goods and services fell 4.3% quarterly.

In the reference period, INEGI reported that the components of global demand performed as follows: private consumption , one of the country’s economic drivers, fell 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, exports of goods and services reported a quarterly increase of 1.1 percent.

In turn, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) , that is, fixed investment, decreased by 4% and government consumption increased by 0.4% in the period January-March 2025.

INEGI specified that the  ITAB  represents the portion of income generated by domestic or foreign production that is not spent on final consumer goods and services, and is used to finance the acquisition of assets by economic agents.

During the first quarter of 2025,  gross savings at current prices fell 0.8% compared to the previous quarter; while savings in the domestic economy grew 5.5% quarterly.

Private consumption has fallen into a period of caution, driven by the upward trend in inflation in Mexico, which reached 4.42% last May compared to the previous year, and by changes in U.S. trade policy, which has heightened uncertainty when deciding on the purchase of goods and services.

The outlook for a slowdown in various industries and an increasing inflationary environment have affected consumer confidence, who have changed some of their habits, even cutting back on entertainment spending outside the home, according to the consulting firm Kantar .

Meanwhile, the International Chamber of Commerce Mexico (ICC Mexico)warned that tax, energy, and judicial regulations could change the rules in key sectors of the economy, which could pose risks to investors if they don’t understand how they will operate.

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El cargo Consumption and investment start 2025 on the wrong foot apareció primero en T21.

Despite estimates of a possible recession in Mexico due to uncertainty about the global economy, private consumption in the country  registered a monthly growth of 1.2% in February 2025, according to data from the Monthly Private Consumption Indicator (IMCP)  compiled by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

This increase reflected the positive trend in household spending on goods and services , both domestic and imported, despite the tariff policy promoted by the United States.

According to seasonally adjusted monthly figures, consumption of domestic goods and services grew 1.2% , with goods reporting a 2.1% increase and services growing 0.3% . Regarding imported goods, consumption increased 2.7% in February of this year compared to the previous month.

On an annual basis, the IMCP fell 0.7% ; domestically, consumption of imported goods fell  5.3% .

These figures are released in a context where Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  registered a quarterly increase of  0.2%  in the first quarter of 2025, showing a recovery after a  0.6% decline in the last quarter of 2024.

It is worth remembering that last February, the Ministry of Economy (SE) announced the relaunch of the “Made in Mexico” emblem , which seeks to strengthen the national industry, protect employment and encourage the consumption of Mexican products and services, as a measure to confront the tariff policies of United States President Donald Trump .

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El cargo Private consumption in Mexico, with a slight increase in February apareció primero en T21.