During the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), the value of exports from Mexico’s federal entities reached an amount of 166 billion 433.1 million dollars (mdd), representing an increase of 13.8% year-on-year , with the participation of six states of the country standing out, driven by manufacturing, reported the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In the report on Quarterly Export Results by Federal Entity (ETEF), the agency highlighted that  Chihuahua , with 19.9%;  Jalisco , with 12.1%; Coahuila , Nuevo León and Baja California , with 9.7% each; and Guanajuato , with 5.7%, contributed 66.9% of the total value of merchandise shipments abroad in the period at an annual rate.

Chihuahua, which topped the list in the October-December 2025 period, recorded operations worth  $33,169.2 million . Jalisco contributed $20,181.5 million . Meanwhile, Coahuila registered exports of  $16,220 million during that period .

In Nuevo León, exports totaled $16,205.9 million ; Baja California reported a contribution of $16,106.9 million to Mexican exports  . Guanajuato, in turn, had exports of  $9,468.6 million .

Exports by economic activity

By economic sector, in Q4 2025,  manufacturing accounted for 93.6% of the total value of exports from the states. This was followed by  mining  (both oil and non-oil), with 4.2%, and the  agricultural sector , with 2.2%.

On an annual basis, the value of exports from the country’s states increased by 13.8 percent. By economic sector, manufacturing exports rose by 17.6 percent. Mining exports decreased by 23.4 percent, and agricultural exports by 22.2 percent.

Exports from the manufacturing sector in Jalisco, Chihuahua, Nayarit, Sinaloa and Yucatán stood out due to their greater annual variation; those from the mining sector in Coahuila, Durango, Chihuahua, Sonora and Nuevo León; and those from the agricultural sector in Campeche, Tlaxcala, Oaxaca and Yucatán.

In terms of their contribution to total export value in Q4 2025 (year-on-year), the manufacturing sector’s standout exports were transportation equipment , representing 32.4% of the total value. This was followed by  the manufacture of computer, communication, measurement, and other electronic equipment, components, and accessories , at 30.6%.  Mining, oil, and gas extraction contributed 1.9%. Exports from the agricultural subsector accounted for 2.1%.

Despite the uncertainty caused by the tariff measures implemented by the United States, which impacted global trade last year, exports from some federal entities registered increases in Q4 2025, with several northern states maintaining their leadership during that period.

These results are in line with the increase in sales of Mexican products abroad, which in December 2025 totaled a value of 60,651 million dollars, an annual increase of 17.2% , according to figures from Inegi.

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Mexico’s transport, postal and storage sector ,  which falls under the tertiary activities of the economy, stood at  114.9 points in January 2026, representing a decrease of 1.1%  compared to last December, according to the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), carried out by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

On an annual basis, Mexico’s logistics industry  showed positive performance, registering a 0.4% increase  in its economic activity, according to the IGAE results.

Meanwhile, in the first month of 2026, the IGAE fell 0.9% on a monthly basis , although on an annual basis it increased 0.5%, to stand at 104.6 points.

Within this indicator, primary activities (agriculture and livestock) fell by 3.7 percent. Secondary activities (manufacturing and construction) declined by 1.1 percent; tertiary activities (services such as transportation, postal services, and warehousing) decreased by 0.6 percent in January 2026 compared to December 2025.

In its annual measurement, primary activities grew 2.4%, tertiary activities increased 0.9%, while secondary activities decreased 0.1 percent.

The decline in Mexican economic activity at the start of 2026 on a monthly basis was due to weak performance in primary, secondary, and tertiary activities.

According to Inegi, the IGAE allows us to understand and monitor the evolution of the real sector of the economy in the short term, so its measurement is key for economic decision-making.

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After two fortnights with declining readings, inflation in Mexico stood at 3.61% in the first half of November 2025 , mainly due to the increase in the cost of some products such as tomatoes and electricity, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , published this Monday.

During the reference period, the  National Consumer Price Index (INPC) , which is a measure of average change in the prices of products that make up a basket of goods and services representative of household consumption in the country, registered an increase of 0.47% compared to the previous two weeks.

According to Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) , the bi-weekly increase was primarily due to rising energy prices. “In particular, the increase in electricity rates due to the end of the summer rate program in 11 cities across the country stood out, as well as the increase in public transportation fares in Mexico City.”

According to Inegi, the  core price index  – which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services –  increased  0.04% biweekly , with a rise in the prices of services of 0.25%, while those of goods decreased 0.19 percent.

The  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations, such as weather conditions—  rose 1.93% on a bi-weekly basis . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased 1.34%, while energy and regulated tariffs rose 2.92%.

The behavior of the INPC in the first half of November 2025 caused an increase in the price of products such as electricity  with 20.70%,  air transport  with 4.60%,  public transport  with 4.32% and tomatoes with 3.98 percent.

Conversely, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were  avocados with 4.83%, potatoes and other tubers with 2.61%, televisions with a drop of 2.37% and outerwear with a decrease of 1.63 percent.

By state, Sinaloa, Sonora, Baja California Sur, Baja California and Tamaulipas registered the largest increases in the CPI during that period, while Quintana Roo, Aguascalientes, Durango, Chiapas and Nuevo León had variations below the national average.

As the year draws to a close, the Mexican economy is projected to experience a slight slowdown due to global trade shifts. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure for the first half of November is above the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) target of 3%, with a tolerance range of +/- 1%.

According to BX+, the year-on-year change was pressured by the partial reversal in the non-core index (energy and fresh food), while the core index remained around its highest levels since April 2024, marking six months above 4 percent.

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In the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25), Hidalgo, Michoacán and Guanajuato showed the best performance in economic activity by federal entity, with growth of 3.1%, 3% and 2.9% , respectively, at a quarterly rate, according to information published this Wednesday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the  Quarterly Indicator of State Economic Activity (ITAEE) , which offers an overview of the economic evolution of the federal entities, Nuevo León with 2.6% and Coahuila with 2.4% , were among the states that also stood out in their economic activity during the period.

In the annual measurement, Hidalgo with 7.1%, Guanajuato with 4.5% and Nuevo León with 4.2% , registered significant advances in their economic activity.

Meanwhile, the federal entities that showed the largest contractions in Q2 2025 were Nayarit with 3.8%, Sinaloa with 2.8% and Oaxaca with 2.3% quarterly.

Campeche with a drop of 13.4%, Quintana Roo with 9.6% and Tabasco with 6.8%, were the states with the greatest decrease in their economic activity at an annual rate.

Economic activity by sector

According to Inegi, in  primary activities , which include agriculture, fishing and livestock, Hidalgo with 53.5%, Guanajuato with 33.9%, Sinaloa with 32.5% and Querétaro with 29.6% stood out with growth in economic activity in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

In the  industrial sector , the states that performed best on an annual basis were Baja California Sur with an increase of 14.6%, Hidalgo with 7.9%, Nuevo León with 6.1% and Tamaulipas with 5.8%.

In  services,  the growth rates of Guerrero (3.9%), Hidalgo (2.6%), State of Mexico (2.3%), and Puebla (2.2%) stood out at an annual rate.

Mexico’s economic activity has shown resilience , despite the changes that have occurred in the world in trade matters.

The rise in the country’s states is heading in line with the moderate growth specified by the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) , with a monthly increase of 0.6% in Mexican economic activity in August 2025.

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As a result of improved performance in the trade and services sectors—which involve activities such as transportation and warehousing —Mexican economic activity is expected to rebound in July 2025.

The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) , prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , anticipated an annual increase of 0.1%  in Mexican economic activity in the seventh month of the year.

On the other hand, on a monthly basis , the indicator would have shown a negative figure, registering a decrease of  0.1%  last July.

The annual rebound signals  moderate economic expansion in Mexico , despite the economic restructuring brought about by the United States’ protectionist policies, coupled with a slowdown in inflation, which stood at 3.51% in July 2025 compared to its annual comparison.

According to the INEGI report, by economic activity group , a 1% annual decline is expected in secondary industries , which include manufacturing and construction.

In  tertiary activities , which include services such as trade, transportation and storage, communications, education and health, an annual increase of 0.8% is estimated.

In its monthly measurement, a 0.1% decline is anticipated in the Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE) , as well as in secondary and tertiary activities for July of this year.

The IOAE is a statistical tool that allows for predicting the behavior of the IGAE, as well as secondary and tertiary activities, up to five weeks in advance, according to INEGI.

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In this context, the  Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP)  predicted a 0.1% annual decline in consumption for June 2025, and a  0.4% annual decline  for July, according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

In its monthly measurement , the IOCP predicted a 0.3% increase  in the sixth month of the year, while for July it also estimated an increase of 0.6 percent .

According to information from the consulting firm Kantar , six out of 10 Mexicans have changed their purchasing habits and are opting for more affordable products .

According to the firm, inflation, slower growth, low employment prospects, and external pressures are impacting consumer confidence, leading to reduced spending .

Among the habits that Mexican consumers have acquired are that 57% are buying products from cheaper brands , and that 52% will begin purchasing products with the Made in Mexico seal , due to the threat posed by the United States’ tariff policy.

In light of this, the study revealed that retail chains that offer deep discounts, known as hard discounters , such as 3B stores , Neto , and others, have gained ground in the preference of Mexican consumers.

“After several years of moderate expansion,  hard discounters  increased their number of branches by 19% from 2023 to 2025,” the consultancy noted.

The IOCP’s purpose is to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption, INEGI explained.

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The study revealed positive foreign trade performance, with exports increasing from 43.51 points in April to 45.27 points in May, and imports reaching 44.89 points in the fifth month of the year.

The physical production volume stood at 50.65 points, and the price of products and raw materials also increased by 51.04 and 58.21 points, respectively, in May 2025.

During the period, new orders reached 49.23 points, and inventories and used capacity reached 49.61 and 49.07 points, respectively, although they did not reach the expansion threshold, which is greater than 50 units.

Among factors hindering business performance, the political landscape was the main obstacle for 50% of respondents. This indicator has held first place for six consecutive months.

Weak economic activity and lower external demand are next among the most frequently mentioned obstacles, selected by 37.3% and 33.3% of survey participants, respectively.

The shortage of trained personnel, the adverse international environment, insecurity, and rising raw material prices are other factors that companies consider to be significant hindrances to their performance.

According to these results, whose expectations indicators seek to qualitatively understand the current situation of Nuevo León’s manufacturing industry through the perspective of managers, the lower economic activity shown in the indices is reflected in the factors that hindered companies’ operations.

Furthermore, the survey figures are presented in a complex economic context , marked by the uncertainty generated by the United States tariff policy and a cautious Mexican economy.

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Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a 0.2% increase in the first quarter of 2025 at a quarterly rate, showing a recovery after falling 0.6% in the last quarter of 2024, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) announced this Wednesday  .

According to the Timely Estimate of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , at an annual rate, the Mexican economy also grew by 0.6 percent .

This slight increase comes amid tariff threats from the U.S. government, which has caused distrust among investors and generated uncertainty in various global markets.

By sector, in the period January-March 2025, the timely estimate of the GDP of primary activities , which includes agriculture, livestock, fishing and mining, registered an increase of 8.1% in its quarterly measurement.

Meanwhile, secondary activities , comprising the manufacturing industry, decreased 0.3% quarterly in the same period. Tertiary activities , comprising trade, transportation, and services, remained unchanged quarterly in the reference period.

At an annual rate, the GDP of primary activities increased by 6% , that of secondary activities showed a decrease of 1.4% and that of tertiary activities increased by 1.3 percent .

With the increase reported in the first quarter of 2025, the Mexican economy avoided a technical recession.

It’s worth remembering that the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated a 0.3%  contraction  in Mexico’s GDP, which could lead to a recession this year.

Meanwhile, the  World Bank (WB)  lowered its economic growth forecast for Mexico from  1.5%  to  0%  by 2025 in response to the escalation of tariffs by the United States.

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Baja California Sur, Guerrero and Colima showed the best performance in terms of economic activity by federal entity in the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24), with growth of 1.4%, 1.3% and 1.2% , respectively, at a quarterly rate, according to information published this Tuesday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the  Quarterly Indicator of State Economic Activity (ITAEE) , which provides an overview of the economic performance of the states, Tamaulipas with an increase of 1.1% , Mexico City with an increase of 0.9% and Guanajuato with an increase of 0.8%, were also among the states that stood out in their economic activity during that period.

At an annual rate, Guerrero with 10.8% , Zacatecas with 5.1% and Oaxaca with 4.7% , also reported significant progress in their economic activity.

Meanwhile, the states that showed the largest contractions in the fourth quarter of last year were Sinaloa with 6.8% , Tabasco with a 3.4% drop , and Michoacán with a 2.7% quarterly decrease.

Quintana Roo, with a 16.9% drop , Campeche, with a 14.3% drop , and Tabasco, with a 9.9% drop , were the states with the greatest decrease in economic activity at an annual rate.

Economic activity by sector

According to the Inegi indicator, in primary activities , which include agriculture, fishing and livestock, Zacatecas, Campeche and Mexico City stood out with growth of 19.8%, 19.6% and 16.9% , respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

In the industrial sector , the states that performed best in this period compared to the last quarter of 2023 were Oaxaca with an increase of 11.8% , Guerrero with 9.1% , Baja California Sur with 9% , Colima with 8% and Tamaulipas with 6.6 percent .

In  services , during the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same cycle in 2023, the growth of Guerrero with 11.1% , Chiapas with 4.2% , Mexico City with 4% and Michoacán with 3.7 percent stood out .

According to the Quarterly Indicator of State Economic Activity, the services sector has boosted the economies of at least 27 states in Mexico, which would represent an increase in tertiary activities in Mexico in the last three months of 2024.

It’s worth remembering that these figures come after headline inflation rose for the second consecutive month last March, reaching 3.8% annually, following the 3.7% annual increase seen in February .

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The  Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) , which allows to know and monitor the evolution of the real sector of the economy in the short term,  registered a monthly fall of 0.2% in January 2025 , derived from a decrease in the manufacturing industry, mainly, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

On an annual basis, the IGAE showed no variation, according to seasonally adjusted figures, the agency added in a statement.

By component of this indicator, secondary activities , which include manufacturing and construction , declined 0.4 percent monthly  . Meanwhile, tertiary activities , which include services such as commerce, transportation and communications, education, and health,  remained unchanged  during the reference period.

The only ones that showed an increase were primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing, with a monthly increase of 3.1% .

On an annual basis, INEGI reported that primary activities increased by 14.6 percent and tertiary activities by 1 percent . Secondary activities decreased by 2.8 percent .

Among the most dynamic subsectors during the period was retail trade with an annual variation of 3.2% , while  transportation ,  mail and storage increased by 0.3% annually .

On the other hand,  construction fell 6.4% , while manufacturing industries showed a decrease of 0.9% , and mining had a drop of 8.6% , all three at an annual rate.

According to data from the IGAE (National Institute of Statistics and Census), Mexican economic activity declined in the first month of this year, driven by a drop in secondary activities.

These figures come after inflation eased in the first half of March 2025, reaching 3.67% annually , after having reached 3.77% at an annual rate last February .

They also occur in a context of uncertainty due to the threat of imposing 25% tariffs on Mexican products by the United States , a measure that was paused until April 2 but only for goods that are within the Treaty between Mexico, United States and Canada (T-MEC) .

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