The Mexican economy could grow by 1.5% in 2026 , the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimated , due to tensions in the global environment and the application of current restrictive financial conditions.

This projection represents an increase if one considers that the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 was 0.8% compared to 2024, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In its report, ECLAC adjusted its regional growth projection to 2.2% for 2026 , a decrease from the 2.3% estimated by the organization in December of last year. The report indicated that the contraction reflects current global tensions, such as the conflict in the Middle East and tariff policies.

“The deterioration of the external environment is one of the main factors behind the downward revision of regional growth projections,” he said.

According to the organization’s data, growth is projected to slow in 24 of the region’s 33 countries in 2026, while only seven are expected to show an increase. This would mark four consecutive years of projected growth close to 2.3% for the region, “demonstrating a pattern of weak growth potential.”

At the subregional level, South America would grow 2.4% in 2026 , below the 2.9% achieved in 2025, “reflecting a slowdown in most of the economies of the subregion,” according to the most recent projections of ECLAC.

Central America is projected to grow its economy by 2.2% this year , a slight contraction compared to the 2.3% growth forecast for 2025, influenced by anticipated contractions in Cuba and Haiti.  The English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean is projected to grow by 5.6% , a slight increase from the 5.5% forecast for 2025, driven by projected economic activity in Guyana.

The conflict in the Middle East and geopolitical tensions increased volatility in commodity and financial markets. The price of oil during the first three weeks of April exceeded the average price recorded in December 2015 by 74% , raising production and transportation costs globally, according to the technical report.

ECLAC noted that the World Trade Organization (WTO) projected a 2.7% increase in the volume of trade in goods and services in 2026. This figure contrasts with the 4.7% growth achieved in 2025, indicating a slowdown in the dynamism of global international trade. Meanwhile, central banks are maintaining cautious stances in the face of renewed pressure on consumer price indices.

Regional private consumption is showing less dynamism, while investment is showing signs of a recovery, albeit at moderate levels. Employment growth in the region’s economies is estimated at 1.1% in 2026, compared to 1.5% in 2025 .

Meanwhile, median inflation would be above 3%, due to the rise in imported inputs and logistics expenses, compared to 2.4% last year.

According to the United Nations regional economic commission, risks persist linked to the volatility of international markets and the weakness of domestic demand in countries; in addition to structural factors and constraints of space in public policies that affect the performance in various economies of the region analyzed.

Given this scenario, ECLAC emphasized the need to expand the mobilization of internal and external resources , and to strengthen governance to promote policies that boost investment, increase productivity and strengthen macroeconomic resilience, in a global environment where uncertainty prevails.

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El cargo ECLAC projects Mexican GDP growth in 2026; global tensions hold back Latin America apareció primero en T21.

In the presentation of the report International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2024: Reconfiguration of global trade and options for regional recovery , the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projected moderate growth in the region’s exports of goods, estimated at 4% for 2024.

This increase will be driven mainly by an expansion in export volumes , while prices will generally remain low.

The case of Mexico is notable in the projections, where a growth in the value of goods exports of 2% is expected, driven by the manufacturing sector, although with a performance slightly below the regional average.

The report also highlights that travel and modern services are projected to be the main drivers of growth in regional services exports, accounting for more than 80% of the total increase (with seven percentage points attributed to travel and three percentage points to modern services).

In the case of the tourism sector , this clearly reflects its continued recovery after the strong impact it suffered due to the pandemic.

According to ECLAC, the reconfiguration of global trade , marked by geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism, is also creating a growing need for companies to bring their supply chains closer to strategic markets.

In this context, Mexico stands out for its location and its consolidated industrial infrastructure and its network of trade agreements that allow it to integrate competitively into global production processes.

They highlighted that Mexico already has strong development in sectors such as the automotive and electronics sectors , and could benefit even more from this trend of global political tensions, if it continues to implement productive development policies focused on innovation and public and private collaboration, thus ensuring its competitiveness in the new scenario of global trade.

“Mexico is ideally positioned to benefit from the ongoing reconfiguration of global value chains, given its strategic geography and vast network of trade agreements,” said José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, Executive Secretary of ECLAC.

Salazar-Xirinachs also commented that, despite these advances, the country faces challenges such as the diversification of its export markets, where more than 80% of its exports are destined for the United States .

Additionally, it was highlighted that by the end of 2024, South America will see the largest trade surpluses in goods, with Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Peru leading in this area.

In contrast, the Caribbean trade deficit is expected to narrow from $22 billion in 2023 to $13 billion in 2024, largely thanks to an increase in Guyana’s surplus.

In Central America , on the other hand , the trade deficit in goods will increase, from 46 billion dollars to 53 billion dollars. In terms of trade in services, Mexico will be the country that will experience the greatest reduction in its deficit, which will fall from 19 billion dollars to 5 billion dollars.

ECLAC also highlighted the importance of international trade in food supply, especially for countries that are highly dependent on imports.

For his part, Keiji Inoue, officer in charge of ECLAC’s International Trade and Integration Division, noted that international trade plays a crucial role in food security .

“This allows countries to access food that they cannot produce locally due to climatic or technological conditions,” Inoue said.

The report also included a series of key recommendations to strengthen trade in the region, such as the implementation of productive development policies based on a cluster approach and close collaboration between the public and private sectors.

He also stressed the importance of harmonising sanitary and phytosanitary regulations and improving food trade logistics .

Finally, the report’s presentation urged governments to improve the digital and linguistic skills of the population in order to take advantage of the potential of modern services, the global demand for which is growing.

Likewise, it was recommended to sign agreements to facilitate trade in digital services and attract foreign direct investment in this sector.

(Main photo source: ECLAC social media)

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El cargo Latin America projects moderate growth in exports of goods and services in 2024: ECLAC apareció primero en T21.