The US elections on November 5, climate change, disruption of global supply chains and geopolitical tensions are some of the risks affecting the chemical industry, according to experts at the session “Geopolitics and the chemical industry” .
Lila Abed, Mexico director of the Wilson Center Institute , noted that other risks include political polarization and cyberattacks, as well as the implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Speaking at the 56th National Chemical Industry Forum , organized by the National Chemical Industry Association (ANIQ) , Abed said that tariffs imposed on certain Chinese products when Donald Trump was president of the United States were not lifted by Joe Biden, which created further tensions between the two nations.
Mexico is the weakest link in cybersecurity , so it is essential to make investments in this area, he stressed.
Regarding the economy, he reported that economic decline is one of the main risks for the North American region, which would affect the countries that make up the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC).
Lila Abed highlighted that one of the most relevant issues in this area is the election in the United States, since whoever wins, whether it is Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, will have their own policies and relations with our country.
He pointed out that there is a risk of “derailing” the T-MEC review process in 2026 , since both candidates are betting on the return of production chains to the northern neighbor through protectionist policies.
Meanwhile, Sergio Silva, who was appointed head of the Economic Development and Growth Unit of the Ministry of Economy and will take office on November 1, said that we are in a time of great geopolitical tensions, although a period of readjustment is coming.
In this regard, he suggested that Mexico’s position in the world should be considered, and pointed out that the result of the United States elections is up in the air, since, although the polls reveal that one of the candidates is above another, the reality is that the next president of that country will be defined by who wins the Electoral College and not the popular vote.
Beyond that, he said the conflict with China will continue , as will the US interest in an “aggressive” industrial policy.
This scenario creates challenges and opportunities for Mexico, especially due to the relocation of labor in our country ( nearshoring ), although Silva pointed out that it is important to know how to measure the indicators of this phenomenon, since it cannot be done by taking into account only foreign direct investment.
In this context, he said that the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) is asking companies what they are doing with their investments and whether they are the result of nearshoring.
Sergio Silva asserted that the relocation of companies cannot be everything in the economic sense, since Mexico must delve deeper into its own value chains, where the chemical industry is a factor to consider.
Mark Eramo, Senior VP Global Lead – Fuels, Chemicals and Resource Solutions at S&P Global , said that geopolitics affects decisions made by the chemical industry, and he considered that in the era of environmental change, we have to see how this sector responds when it makes an investment in energies that do not use hydrocarbons.
The specialist pointed out that the energy transition, which is aimed at Net Zero , must be done with the help of technology, and pointed out that in this industry a project cannot be carried out without first analyzing the environmental impacts.
Politically, Eramo agreed with the other panelists that the elections in the United States will be decisive in determining where this industry is headed.
Comment an follow us on X: @Eliseosfield / @GrupoT21
