The increase in the prices of cigarettes, soft drinks and lemons placed the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) at 3.79% at an annual rate in January 2026 , which meant an increase of 0.38% compared to the previous month, according to information from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) published on Monday.
According to the agency, the core inflation index , considered a better indicator of overall price increases because it excludes highly volatile goods and services or those not subject to market conditions, rose 0.60% month-on-month . Within this index, goods prices increased by 0.92% and services prices by 0.30%.
Meanwhile, the non-core price index —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations, such as weather conditions— decreased 0.36% month-on-month . Within this index, agricultural product prices fell 0.86%, while energy and regulated tariff prices rose 0.03%.
Among the products that registered increases in the first month of 2026 are lemons with 21.21%, cigarettes with 14.51%, bananas with 12.96%, and soft drinks with a monthly increase of 5.53%.
The price increase for soft drinks and cigarettes stemmed from the rise in the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) , which was updated by the Mexican Congress this year. The adjustments include a tax of 0.8516 pesos per cigarette, while for sweetened beverages, the tax is 3.0818 pesos per liter for those containing added sugars and 1.50 pesos per liter for those containing sweeteners.
Conversely, air transportation showed a 36.64% decrease month-over-month, due to the end of the year-end holidays. Other products that reported price decreases during January 2026 were serrano peppers (25.51%), lettuce and cabbage (10.43%), tourist services (8.79%), onions (7.65%), eggs (6.31%), and LP gas (2.75% month-over-month).
By state, Yucatán (1.17%), Quintana Roo (1.15%) and Campeche (0.98%) were the states with the largest increases in the CPI during the cycle; while Baja California Sur (-0.11%) and Durango (-0.10%) showed a monthly variation below the national average.
The post-holiday financial strain continues to hit Mexicans’ wallets, with the rise in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) recorded both in the first half of 2026, when it stood at 3.77%, and throughout January of this year, according to the results released this Monday.
This increase was anticipated by analysts, who even expected a greater variation in inflation at the start of the year.
According to estimates from the International Chamber of Commerce Mexico (ICC Mexico) , inflation in the country could be above 4% during some periods of 2026.
“This environment will lead the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to adopt a more cautious stance, anticipating only two additional interest rate cuts during 2026, which would bring the benchmark rate to close the year at 6.5%, slowing the pace of monetary easing previously observed,” the agency projected.
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