Mexico is particularly exposed to trade restrictions, since more than 80% of its exports go to the United States and the integration of the supply chain with this country is deep, considered the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , which estimated a growth of the Mexican economy of 1.4% for this year and 1.7% for 2027.
According to the Economic Study for Mexico 2026 , the organization indicated that the increase in tariffs in the United States has affected exports, especially those in the automotive sector, although it noted that the preferential treatment that Mexico has in the US market under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has helped to maintain the country’s trade competitiveness.
“Mexico’s economy has shown resilience despite high uncertainty and trade barriers,” the OECD highlighted.
In December 2025, Mexico consolidated its position as the main trading partner of its northern neighbor, registering an exchange of goods worth 70 billion 521 million dollars , according to data from the United States Census Bureau .
Regarding private consumption , the OECD projected that by 2026 and 2027, this indicator will be supported by the low level of unemployment and the slowdown in inflation.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , private consumption in Mexico decreased 0.5% on a monthly basis in November 2025, although in its annual comparison it registered an increase of 2.8 percent.
The OECD also estimated that inflation will decrease to 3.6% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, which is close to the midpoint of the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) target range of 3 percent.
It is worth remembering that the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) has shown an upward trend so far in 2016. In the first half of February alone, the overall annual inflation rate in Mexico reached 3.92 percent .
The OECD study indicated that private investment will gradually benefit from lower interest rates, “although it will remain limited by high domestic and global political uncertainty.”
Regarding public investment , he predicted that it would remain moderate as part of efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit.
“To safeguard fiscal sustainability and achieve stronger growth, improving the efficiency of public spending will be essential. A more strategic approach to planning and prioritizing spending is necessary,” he stated.
The OECD estimates come in a context of trade uncertainty, framed by a changing tariff policy that Mexico has managed to overcome, consolidating itself as a strategic trading partner in the North American region, due, among other factors, to its skilled workforce and logistics networks.
Comment and follow us on LinkedIn: @GrupoT21
